How to calculate expected goals by main markets

**laprikon** · 10-04-18, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by mon5oy

Hi friends,

It's very interesting for me to understand How to calculate the expected goals scored by home and by away, when you know only main markets. For example you know this:

Moneyline: 1 - 3.00, X - 3.30, 2 - 2.10
Handicap: Home(0.0/0.5 or 0.25) - 1.90, Away (0.0/-0.5 or -0.25) - 1.90
Over/Under: Over 2.5 - 2.05, Under 2.5 - 1.75

Here what I can see is:
Favorite is Away team. It's expected to score 0.25 goals more than Home.
Expected total goals in this game are around 2.5 (between 2.25 and 2.5) - BUT HOW MUCH EXACTLY?

I want to find:
Expected Goals HOME
Expected Goals AWAY

Then I will make Poisson to find correct score probabilities.

Can you help me?

Google probably can help you. There is many methods to calculate goal expectancy. I recommend you vist this site.

**hyp3** · 10-06-18, 11:14 AM

easiest come up of the day

connor mcgregor +160

**Larkman** · 10-09-18, 08:44 PM

There is not nearly enough information in the odds alone to calculate expected goals. Expected goals is a metric calculated based on the number and type of chances a team has been creating.

**danshan11** · 10-09-18, 10:13 PM

unfortunately 99% of any calculation method for expected goals is in the line and the closing line is about close as you can get to the expected goals for a game! So in essence no edge in the math!

**Barrakuda** · 10-09-18, 11:15 PM

Seems like these guys are doing what you suggest:

PoissoNed!

https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/

Unique tool for calculating various probabilities for sports events using Poisson distribution formula with many enhancements.

**danshan11** · 10-10-18, 08:05 AM

its pretty simple to calculate expected goals there are 2 easy ways
1 read the line on the sportsbook this will be very close
2 calculate the past line of expected goals for each team that each team has played and give each team an expected goal rating and then comp out the opponent comparison and that will get you very close to the current line.

**semibluff** · 10-10-18, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Larkman

There is not nearly enough information in the odds alone to calculate expected goals. Expected goals is a metric calculated based on the number and type of chances a team has been creating.

This 100% correct. You can't create an NFL Over/Under based on the moneyline and you can't create a soccer expected goals line based on the moneyline. The further you go down the soccer pyramid the more likely you are to see lines created purely on previous performances rather than from a knowledge of the teams involved. The way to beat those lines is to have some knowledge about those teams.

**Microbetter** · 10-10-18, 10:25 AM

LMAO It took 19 months for his post to be answered! Guess American football is still king.