How Do You Handicap Baseball?

[Alex Hart]

I'm now trying to learn how I can handicap baseball better and would like to know what your routine is. What do you look at and what's important to you when handicapping baseball?

Thanks!

[rkelly110]

I look at money line odds. Bet the ML fav of the day. Let the books do the work for you.

So far this month, the ML fav of the day has won everyday. (Watch, after I said this, the bottom will drop out.)

Many ways to cap. Teams don't like to be shut out. Look for a series when the team has lost 2 games.
Bet the team that lost twice.

One guy in here was betting just about every home team fav and would chase the next 2 games in the series if
he lost the 1st game. Did pretty well. A lot of games to bet though and chasing can bite the butt.

You can bet both sides of the same game if the odds are right. Risking a lot to win a little.
Look for minimum -RL odds of +220 and the opposing team ML odds of +220 or above. One run game
can bite you if the -RL won by one run. It happens, but not often.

Immotive8 is running a revenge thread. Teams that were shut out and in their next meeting with the team
that shut them out, bet the team that was shut out. If you lose, chase the next 2 games.

I'm running a lost 3 su and ats thread. Betting those teams for 3 games. Hoping for a win during that time.
Right now at 58%.

GL

[lom bylyri]

I follow that theory also. If a team has lost two or three straight, especially at home ( same series), i bet the money line of that team. Win more than lose. A large % of teams that win the first leg of a double header, lose the second. Who's pitching's got to be the first thing to look at. Also, something to keep in mind : Historically, only about 30 % of the games end by one run difference. So, if you have a team that you think is due, or after you did your handicapping, it's a better value to go for the - 1 1/2 ...and so on ... BOL.
P.S. Pounded the Nats last night ( following the day/night double theory) and almost had an heart attack ...

[StackinGreen]

Come to Vegas and I'll show you, too hard to type it in here

[Alex Hart]

I look at money line odds. Bet the ML fav of the day. Let the books do the work for you.

So far this month, the ML fav of the day has won everyday. (Watch, after I said this, the bottom will drop out.)

Many ways to cap. Teams don't like to be shut out. Look for a series when the team has lost 2 games.
Bet the team that lost twice.

One guy in here was betting just about every home team fav and would chase the next 2 games in the series if
he lost the 1st game. Did pretty well. A lot of games to bet though and chasing can bite the butt.

You can bet both sides of the same game if the odds are right. Risking a lot to win a little.
Look for minimum -RL odds of +220 and the opposing team ML odds of +220 or above. One run game
can bite you if the -RL won by one run. It happens, but not often.

Immotive8 is running a revenge thread. Teams that were shut out and in their next meeting with the team
that shut them out, bet the team that was shut out. If you lose, chase the next 2 games.

I'm running a lost 3 su and ats thread. Betting those teams for 3 games. Hoping for a win during that time.
Right now at 58%.

GL

Interesting about the ML fav winning everyday this month. Looking at 5D it looks like LAA is the ML fav for today at -183. Are you playing them or is that too expensive? I'm still a newb when it comes to sports betting overall so I typically place square bets, especially for baseball so far. I'm much more comfortable capping CFB & NFL.

Thank you for taking the time to reply and give advice!

[Alex Hart]

I follow that theory also. If a team has lost two or three straight, especially at home ( same series), i bet the money line of that team. Win more than lose. A large % of teams that win the first leg of a double header, lose the second. Who's pitching's got to be the first thing to look at. Also, something to keep in mind : Historically, only about 30 % of the games end by one run difference. So, if you have a team that you think is due, or after you did your handicapping, it's a better value to go for the - 1 1/2 ...and so on ... BOL.
P.S. Pounded the Nats last night ( following the day/night double theory) and almost had an heart attack ...

I've thought about betting on a team that has lost two or three straight at home in the same series but have yet to do it. I'll give it a try.

Yeah, pitching is always the first thing I look at then I look at injuries to see if any one of importance is missing from the lineup.

Never thought about the double header angle. I'll look into that.

I took the Nats as well last night.

Thanks for the reply.

[Alex Hart]

Come to Vegas and I'll show you, too hard to type it in here

I've always wanted to head out to Vegas and learn from an experienced handicapper. I've never been out there.

Anything you like for tonight?

Thanks for the reply.

[rkelly110]

Interesting about the ML fav winning everyday this month. Looking at 5D it looks like LAA is the ML fav for today at -183. Are you playing them or is that too expensive? I'm still a newb when it comes to sports betting overall so I typically place square bets, especially for baseball so far. I'm much more comfortable capping CFB & NFL.

Thank you for taking the time to reply and give advice!

No problem. My minimum for the fav of the day is -222 (1.45). Been keeping track for years on the fav of the day
for every sport. MLB is consistently over 65% for the whole year.

[chico2663]

i try to find out howa pitcher does at home compared to away. Than i look at the money line and try to see if some thing looks hokie.

[Safehouse]

No problem. My minimum for the fav of the day is -222 (1.45). Been keeping track for years on the fav of the day
for every sport. MLB is consistently over 65% for the whole year.

Is MLB the highest % of the sports you track? I might start tracking MLB and see for myself. Have you looked into top 2 or 3 favourites for the day as well?

[rkelly110]

Is MLB the highest % of the sports you track? I might start tracking MLB and see for myself. Have you looked into top 2 or 3 favourites for the day as well?

No, just about every sport I track is in the 60's and only track the fav. The only sport that is inconsistent is the NFL and this year, NBA.

Some sports from last year: NCAAB 110-45 71% NCAAF 20-9 69% NFL 21-15 58% MLB Apr-Sept 124-62 67%
NHL this season 115-59 66% NBA this season 90-67 57% (these numbers don't include playoffs)

[KVB]

...My minimum for the fav of the day is -222 (1.45). Been keeping track for years on the fav of the day
for every sport. MLB is consistently over 65% for the whole year.

This means there are only bets of -222 or higher triggered?

No, just about every sport I track is in the 60's and only track the fav. The only sport that is inconsistent is the NFL and this year, NBA.

Some sports from last year: NCAAB 110-45 71% NCAAF 20-9 69% NFL 21-15 58% MLB Apr-Sept 124-62 67%
NHL this season 115-59 66% NBA this season 90-67 57% (these numbers don't include playoffs)

At -222, a bettor needs to hit about 69% of the bets to break even. If that price is a minimum, you’re breakeven is much higher than the percentages above.

This seems to be a losing proposition, or am I missing something?

Keep an eye on break even points when betting moneylines, win percentages are near meaningless.

[Waterstpub87]

This means there are only bets of -222 or higher triggered?



At -222, a bettor needs to hit about 69% of the bets to break even. If that price is a minimum, you’re breakeven is much higher than the percentages above.

This seems to be a losing proposition, or am I missing something?

Keep an eye on break even points when betting moneylines, win percentages are near meaningless.

From talking to RKelly before, I think he uses the word minimum, whereas many would use the word maximum in this case, in that the most he will lay is -222, IE the largest favorite being less than -222. This would make more sense about getting excited about hitting 65%. I could be mistaken though.

[rkelly110]

This means there are only bets of -222 or higher triggered?



At -222, a bettor needs to hit about 69% of the bets to break even. If that price is a minimum, you’re breakeven is much higher than the percentages above.

This seems to be a losing proposition, or am I missing something?

Keep an eye on break even points when betting moneylines, win percentages are near meaningless.

The man wanted to know how others made their wagers. I gave him quite a few of my examples.
Yes, if you straight bet the fav of the day, you could lose some money. Trick is to increase your wagers after a loss.
Not recoup losses, just gradually increase your basic wager. Wins can come at a fierce pace. IE: this month,
15 straight days w/o a loss. Who in their right mind wouldn't be hooping and hollering about that?

From talking to RKelly before, I think he uses the word minimum, whereas many would use the word maximum in this case, in that the most he will lay is -222, IE the largest favorite being less than -222. This would make more sense about getting excited about hitting 65%. I could be mistaken though.

Exactly. I use the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid. You can't get anymore simple than just looking at the fav
of the day, making your wager and cashing. No handicapping. Believe me, I've done that. Hours and hours of it.
Paperwork to the ceiling.

Those like KVB who don't want to do that, can use that as a trigger and bet the -RL for + money. You can probably
make money with a 34% win rate. (chasing)

[KVB]

Yeah, the first part of my post was trying to clarify just what "minimum" meant. I had a feeling it hinged on that.

The posts do make a bit more sense if it's the highest price paid, not the lowest.

[KVB]

...Exactly. I use the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid. You can't get anymore simple than just looking at the fav
of the day, making your wager and cashing. No handicapping. Believe me, I've done that. Hours and hours of it.
Paperwork to the ceiling.

Those like KVB who don't want to do that, can use that as a trigger and bet the -RL for + money. You can probably
make money with a 34% win rate. (chasing)

Oh boy.

[TheMoneyShot]

I'm now trying to learn how I can handicap baseball better and would like to know what your routine is. What do you look at and what's important to you when handicapping baseball?

Thanks!

Just throw a dart at a map on the wall. Closest city it hits... pick that team.

[Forearm Shiver]

90% of the public only looks at the starting pitchers. And many go into pain staking detail. But a good 33% of baseball doesn't include starting pitchers.

If you find yourself doing the same thing as everyone else, it's going to be hard to win. Be different.

[Jolly_Rancher]

Some excellent insight in this thread. rkelly110 has dropped great insight for those willing to stop, listen and process.

Forearm Shiver is spot on too. Trying to do things like everyone else will get you in the same spot they are..giving the books money more than you take.

[littlekona]

baseball MLB is my strongest sport and I usually parlay over/unders...I use daily fantasy sports web sites esp rotogrinders.com for information. They have the best articles including daily pitching breakdowns and info on matchups. The pitching articles and stats are what I really look at esp focus on pitchers with high SIERA stats to bet overs on....Gas can pitchers are goldmines! Last night Min/baltimore perfect example

[TheMoneyShot]

Even if you factored everything on one game. Wind, weather, lineups, career batting avg vs starting pitcher, career batting avg vs possible relief pitchers, which umpire calling balls/strikes.... wide strike zone... small strike zone... did any player get laid last night? All of this bullsh#$... you just spent at least half an hour on just one game. There are like 15 games a day.

Let's be real here.

[KVB]

Even if you factored everything on one game. Wind, weather, lineups, career batting avg vs starting pitcher, career batting avg vs possible relief pitchers, which umpire calling balls/strikes.... wide strike zone... small strike zone... did any player get laid last night? All of this bullsh#$... you just spent at least half an hour on just one game. There are like 15 games a day.

Let's be real here.

Once you understand how to rate in a predictive way, or the relevant factors needed to beat the market prices and know which ones to activate in which situations, then it's just a matter of duplication and shopping.

There is hard work, but that's more of a creative process, then there's busy work to get it ready to bet.

Computers help, of course, but no one said it was easy.

That's being real.

[TheMoneyShot]

Once you understand how to rate in a predictive way, or the relevant factors needed to beat the market prices and know which ones to activate in which situations, then it's just a matter of duplication and shopping.

There is hard work, but that's more of a creative process, then there's busy work to get it ready to bet.

Computers help, of course, but no one said it was easy.

That's being real.

KVB... been on this site for many years. A lot of posters have come and gone... Not one poster has ever been + money at the end of the season wagering baseball. So why wager it? Clearly isn't beatable.

[KVB]

Sure we can profit in a given season, I think LT was up over 100 units just a couple of seasons ago.

But sticking with same old methods will catch up to the bettor, as the market catches up.

That's the real hard work, staying ahead of the game.

There are plenty of slow and steady players that will profit from a baseball season. They will experience heavy variance, but will turn a profit.

It's not that it isn't predictable, it's just that so many other factors work against players...like money management and emotions.

[rkelly110]

KVB... been on this site for many years. A lot of posters have come and gone... Not one poster has ever been + money at the end of the season wagering baseball. So why wager it? Clearly isn't beatable.

I have, negative nancy. Baseball is the easiest to bet. No other sport plays 3 or 4 game series.

Pick a good team at home and chase if they lose. Money in the bank, money.

[TheMoneyShot]

I have, negative nancy. Baseball is the easiest to bet. No other sport plays 3 or 4 game series.

Pick a good team at home and chase if they lose. Money in the bank, money.

Not being negative Nancy... post your plays. I don't believe you. No offense.

[littlekona]

Overs have been the very profitable play this season esp last few weeks they are a whopping 72-34-2 (68%) over the last eight days!

[StackinGreen]

KVB... been on this site for many years. A lot of posters have come and gone... Not one poster has ever been + money at the end of the season wagering baseball. So why wager it? Clearly isn't beatable.

This is totally false, I've beaten it the last two years.

I'm quite sure No Coin and LT have been up, they run long term thread results posts, don't they?

[StackinGreen]

Overs have been the very profitable play this season esp last few weeks they are a whopping 72-34-2 (68%) over the last eight days!

I've noticed this too. Not many dominating pitchers like usual. Lots of runs. I've had a great season so far, and I play probably an equal number of overs and unders this year so far

Tonight I'm Giants Cubs over 7, Twins / O's under 9.5 ... looking good

[rkelly110]

Not being negative Nancy... post your plays. I don't believe you. No offense.

I'm in the MLB sub forum.

[littlekona]

cubs over is gold...I think since they left Colorado all but one game has not went over

[StackinGreen]

haha, my only loss of the night, come on, get a few vs Lester (7 was low for this year especially)

[KVB]

I have a few thoughts and reasons on why, but I can say that this year, so far, the books have been taking larger size positions at a rather high rate compared to past marketplaces.

We've seen it in both moneylines and totals since the beginning of the season. When sharps kicked in after a few weeks of play, the behavior continued.

It will be interesting to see if it continues to continue.

[Auto Donk]

HOW?

This works best for me....

CLARITY is the key:

[BennyBigNuts]

I look at money line odds. Bet the ML fav of the day. Let the books do the work for you.

So far this month, the ML fav of the day has won everyday. (Watch, after I said this, the bottom will drop out.)

Many ways to cap. Teams don't like to be shut out. Look for a series when the team has lost 2 games.
Bet the team that lost twice.

One guy in here was betting just about every home team fav and would chase the next 2 games in the series if
he lost the 1st game. Did pretty well. A lot of games to bet though and chasing can bite the butt.

You can bet both sides of the same game if the odds are right. Risking a lot to win a little.
Look for minimum -RL odds of +220 and the opposing team ML odds of +220 or above. One run game
can bite you if the -RL won by one run. It happens, but not often.

Immotive8 is running a revenge thread. Teams that were shut out and in their next meeting with the team
that shut them out, bet the team that was shut out. If you lose, chase the next 2 games.

I'm running a lost 3 su and ats thread. Betting those teams for 3 games. Hoping for a win during that time.
Right now at 58%.

GL

Rule 1 for you to learn how to handicap MLB....Ignore this whole post
You'll be in good shape already