How Do You Handicap Baseball?

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  • Alex Hart
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-13-15
    • 177

    #1
    How Do You Handicap Baseball?
    I'm now trying to learn how I can handicap baseball better and would like to know what your routine is. What do you look at and what's important to you when handicapping baseball?

    Thanks!
  • rkelly110
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-05-09
    • 39691

    #2
    I look at money line odds. Bet the ML fav of the day. Let the books do the work for you.

    So far this month, the ML fav of the day has won everyday. (Watch, after I said this, the bottom will drop out.)

    Many ways to cap. Teams don't like to be shut out. Look for a series when the team has lost 2 games.
    Bet the team that lost twice.

    One guy in here was betting just about every home team fav and would chase the next 2 games in the series if
    he lost the 1st game. Did pretty well. A lot of games to bet though and chasing can bite the butt.

    You can bet both sides of the same game if the odds are right. Risking a lot to win a little.
    Look for minimum -RL odds of +220 and the opposing team ML odds of +220 or above. One run game
    can bite you if the -RL won by one run. It happens, but not often.

    Immotive8 is running a revenge thread. Teams that were shut out and in their next meeting with the team
    that shut them out, bet the team that was shut out. If you lose, chase the next 2 games.

    I'm running a lost 3 su and ats thread. Betting those teams for 3 games. Hoping for a win during that time.
    Right now at 58%.

    GL
    Comment
    • lom bylyri
      SBR Sharp
      • 04-24-17
      • 471

      #3
      I follow that theory also. If a team has lost two or three straight, especially at home ( same series), i bet the money line of that team. Win more than lose. A large % of teams that win the first leg of a double header, lose the second. Who's pitching's got to be the first thing to look at. Also, something to keep in mind : Historically, only about 30 % of the games end by one run difference. So, if you have a team that you think is due, or after you did your handicapping, it's a better value to go for the - 1 1/2 ...and so on ... BOL.
      P.S. Pounded the Nats last night ( following the day/night double theory) and almost had an heart attack ...
      Comment
      • StackinGreen
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-09-10
        • 12140

        #4
        Come to Vegas and I'll show you, too hard to type it in here
        Comment
        • Alex Hart
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-13-15
          • 177

          #5
          Originally posted by rkelly110
          I look at money line odds. Bet the ML fav of the day. Let the books do the work for you.

          So far this month, the ML fav of the day has won everyday. (Watch, after I said this, the bottom will drop out.)

          Many ways to cap. Teams don't like to be shut out. Look for a series when the team has lost 2 games.
          Bet the team that lost twice.

          One guy in here was betting just about every home team fav and would chase the next 2 games in the series if
          he lost the 1st game. Did pretty well. A lot of games to bet though and chasing can bite the butt.

          You can bet both sides of the same game if the odds are right. Risking a lot to win a little.
          Look for minimum -RL odds of +220 and the opposing team ML odds of +220 or above. One run game
          can bite you if the -RL won by one run. It happens, but not often.

          Immotive8 is running a revenge thread. Teams that were shut out and in their next meeting with the team
          that shut them out, bet the team that was shut out. If you lose, chase the next 2 games.

          I'm running a lost 3 su and ats thread. Betting those teams for 3 games. Hoping for a win during that time.
          Right now at 58%.

          GL
          Interesting about the ML fav winning everyday this month. Looking at 5D it looks like LAA is the ML fav for today at -183. Are you playing them or is that too expensive? I'm still a newb when it comes to sports betting overall so I typically place square bets, especially for baseball so far. I'm much more comfortable capping CFB & NFL.

          Thank you for taking the time to reply and give advice!
          Comment
          • Alex Hart
            SBR High Roller
            • 07-13-15
            • 177

            #6
            Originally posted by lom bylyri
            I follow that theory also. If a team has lost two or three straight, especially at home ( same series), i bet the money line of that team. Win more than lose. A large % of teams that win the first leg of a double header, lose the second. Who's pitching's got to be the first thing to look at. Also, something to keep in mind : Historically, only about 30 % of the games end by one run difference. So, if you have a team that you think is due, or after you did your handicapping, it's a better value to go for the - 1 1/2 ...and so on ... BOL.
            P.S. Pounded the Nats last night ( following the day/night double theory) and almost had an heart attack ...
            I've thought about betting on a team that has lost two or three straight at home in the same series but have yet to do it. I'll give it a try.

            Yeah, pitching is always the first thing I look at then I look at injuries to see if any one of importance is missing from the lineup.

            Never thought about the double header angle. I'll look into that.

            I took the Nats as well last night.

            Thanks for the reply.
            Comment
            • Alex Hart
              SBR High Roller
              • 07-13-15
              • 177

              #7
              Originally posted by StackinGreen
              Come to Vegas and I'll show you, too hard to type it in here
              I've always wanted to head out to Vegas and learn from an experienced handicapper. I've never been out there.

              Anything you like for tonight?

              Thanks for the reply.
              Comment
              • rkelly110
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 10-05-09
                • 39691

                #8
                Originally posted by Alex Hart
                Interesting about the ML fav winning everyday this month. Looking at 5D it looks like LAA is the ML fav for today at -183. Are you playing them or is that too expensive? I'm still a newb when it comes to sports betting overall so I typically place square bets, especially for baseball so far. I'm much more comfortable capping CFB & NFL.

                Thank you for taking the time to reply and give advice!
                No problem. My minimum for the fav of the day is -222 (1.45). Been keeping track for years on the fav of the day
                for every sport. MLB is consistently over 65% for the whole year.
                Comment
                • chico2663
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 09-02-10
                  • 36915

                  #9
                  i try to find out howa pitcher does at home compared to away. Than i look at the money line and try to see if some thing looks hokie.
                  Comment
                  • Safehouse
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 05-12-17
                    • 75

                    #10
                    Originally posted by rkelly110
                    No problem. My minimum for the fav of the day is -222 (1.45). Been keeping track for years on the fav of the day
                    for every sport. MLB is consistently over 65% for the whole year.
                    Is MLB the highest % of the sports you track? I might start tracking MLB and see for myself. Have you looked into top 2 or 3 favourites for the day as well?
                    Comment
                    • rkelly110
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 10-05-09
                      • 39691

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Safehouse
                      Is MLB the highest % of the sports you track? I might start tracking MLB and see for myself. Have you looked into top 2 or 3 favourites for the day as well?
                      No, just about every sport I track is in the 60's and only track the fav. The only sport that is inconsistent is the NFL and this year, NBA.

                      Some sports from last year: NCAAB 110-45 71% NCAAF 20-9 69% NFL 21-15 58% MLB Apr-Sept 124-62 67%
                      NHL this season 115-59 66% NBA this season 90-67 57% (these numbers don't include playoffs)
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #12
                        Originally posted by rkelly110
                        ...My minimum for the fav of the day is -222 (1.45). Been keeping track for years on the fav of the day
                        for every sport. MLB is consistently over 65% for the whole year.
                        This means there are only bets of -222 or higher triggered?

                        Originally posted by rkelly110
                        No, just about every sport I track is in the 60's and only track the fav. The only sport that is inconsistent is the NFL and this year, NBA.

                        Some sports from last year: NCAAB 110-45 71% NCAAF 20-9 69% NFL 21-15 58% MLB Apr-Sept 124-62 67%
                        NHL this season 115-59 66% NBA this season 90-67 57% (these numbers don't include playoffs)
                        At -222, a bettor needs to hit about 69% of the bets to break even. If that price is a minimum, you’re breakeven is much higher than the percentages above.

                        This seems to be a losing proposition, or am I missing something?

                        Keep an eye on break even points when betting moneylines, win percentages are near meaningless.

                        Comment
                        • Waterstpub87
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-09-09
                          • 4102

                          #13
                          Originally posted by KVB
                          This means there are only bets of -222 or higher triggered?



                          At -222, a bettor needs to hit about 69% of the bets to break even. If that price is a minimum, you’re breakeven is much higher than the percentages above.

                          This seems to be a losing proposition, or am I missing something?

                          Keep an eye on break even points when betting moneylines, win percentages are near meaningless.

                          From talking to RKelly before, I think he uses the word minimum, whereas many would use the word maximum in this case, in that the most he will lay is -222, IE the largest favorite being less than -222. This would make more sense about getting excited about hitting 65%. I could be mistaken though.
                          Comment
                          • rkelly110
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 10-05-09
                            • 39691

                            #14
                            Originally posted by KVB

                            This means there are only bets of -222 or higher triggered?



                            At -222, a bettor needs to hit about 69% of the bets to break even. If that price is a minimum, you’re breakeven is much higher than the percentages above.

                            This seems to be a losing proposition, or am I missing something?

                            Keep an eye on break even points when betting moneylines, win percentages are near meaningless.

                            The man wanted to know how others made their wagers. I gave him quite a few of my examples.
                            Yes, if you straight bet the fav of the day, you could lose some money. Trick is to increase your wagers after a loss.
                            Not recoup losses, just gradually increase your basic wager. Wins can come at a fierce pace. IE: this month,
                            15 straight days w/o a loss. Who in their right mind wouldn't be hooping and hollering about that?

                            Originally posted by Waterstpub87

                            From talking to RKelly before, I think he uses the word minimum, whereas many would use the word maximum in this case, in that the most he will lay is -222, IE the largest favorite being less than -222. This would make more sense about getting excited about hitting 65%. I could be mistaken though.
                            Exactly. I use the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid. You can't get anymore simple than just looking at the fav
                            of the day, making your wager and cashing. No handicapping. Believe me, I've done that. Hours and hours of it.
                            Paperwork to the ceiling.

                            Those like KVB who don't want to do that, can use that as a trigger and bet the -RL for + money. You can probably
                            make money with a 34% win rate. (chasing)
                            Comment
                            • KVB
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 05-29-14
                              • 74817

                              #15
                              Yeah, the first part of my post was trying to clarify just what "minimum" meant. I had a feeling it hinged on that.

                              The posts do make a bit more sense if it's the highest price paid, not the lowest.

                              Comment
                              • KVB
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 05-29-14
                                • 74817

                                #16
                                Originally posted by rkelly110
                                ...Exactly. I use the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid. You can't get anymore simple than just looking at the fav
                                of the day, making your wager and cashing. No handicapping. Believe me, I've done that. Hours and hours of it.
                                Paperwork to the ceiling.

                                Those like KVB who don't want to do that, can use that as a trigger and bet the -RL for + money. You can probably
                                make money with a 34% win rate. (chasing)
                                Oh boy.
                                Comment
                                • TheMoneyShot
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 02-14-07
                                  • 28672

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Alex Hart
                                  I'm now trying to learn how I can handicap baseball better and would like to know what your routine is. What do you look at and what's important to you when handicapping baseball?

                                  Thanks!
                                  Just throw a dart at a map on the wall. Closest city it hits... pick that team.
                                  Comment
                                  • Forearm Shiver
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 03-02-17
                                    • 75

                                    #18
                                    90% of the public only looks at the starting pitchers. And many go into pain staking detail. But a good 33% of baseball doesn't include starting pitchers.

                                    If you find yourself doing the same thing as everyone else, it's going to be hard to win. Be different.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jolly_Rancher
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 05-15-17
                                      • 19

                                      #19
                                      Some excellent insight in this thread. rkelly110 has dropped great insight for those willing to stop, listen and process.

                                      Forearm Shiver is spot on too. Trying to do things like everyone else will get you in the same spot they are..giving the books money more than you take.
                                      Comment
                                      • littlekona
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-19-15
                                        • 5241

                                        #20
                                        baseball MLB is my strongest sport and I usually parlay over/unders...I use daily fantasy sports web sites esp rotogrinders.com for information. They have the best articles including daily pitching breakdowns and info on matchups. The pitching articles and stats are what I really look at esp focus on pitchers with high SIERA stats to bet overs on....Gas can pitchers are goldmines! Last night Min/baltimore perfect example
                                        Comment
                                        • TheMoneyShot
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 02-14-07
                                          • 28672

                                          #21
                                          Even if you factored everything on one game. Wind, weather, lineups, career batting avg vs starting pitcher, career batting avg vs possible relief pitchers, which umpire calling balls/strikes.... wide strike zone... small strike zone... did any player get laid last night? All of this bullsh#$... you just spent at least half an hour on just one game. There are like 15 games a day.

                                          Let's be real here.
                                          Comment
                                          • KVB
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-29-14
                                            • 74817

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                            Even if you factored everything on one game. Wind, weather, lineups, career batting avg vs starting pitcher, career batting avg vs possible relief pitchers, which umpire calling balls/strikes.... wide strike zone... small strike zone... did any player get laid last night? All of this bullsh#$... you just spent at least half an hour on just one game. There are like 15 games a day.

                                            Let's be real here.

                                            Once you understand how to rate in a predictive way, or the relevant factors needed to beat the market prices and know which ones to activate in which situations, then it's just a matter of duplication and shopping.

                                            There is hard work, but that's more of a creative process, then there's busy work to get it ready to bet.

                                            Computers help, of course, but no one said it was easy.

                                            That's being real.

                                            Comment
                                            • TheMoneyShot
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 02-14-07
                                              • 28672

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by KVB
                                              Once you understand how to rate in a predictive way, or the relevant factors needed to beat the market prices and know which ones to activate in which situations, then it's just a matter of duplication and shopping.

                                              There is hard work, but that's more of a creative process, then there's busy work to get it ready to bet.

                                              Computers help, of course, but no one said it was easy.

                                              That's being real.

                                              KVB... been on this site for many years. A lot of posters have come and gone... Not one poster has ever been + money at the end of the season wagering baseball. So why wager it? Clearly isn't beatable.
                                              Comment
                                              • KVB
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 05-29-14
                                                • 74817

                                                #24
                                                Sure we can profit in a given season, I think LT was up over 100 units just a couple of seasons ago.

                                                But sticking with same old methods will catch up to the bettor, as the market catches up.

                                                That's the real hard work, staying ahead of the game.

                                                There are plenty of slow and steady players that will profit from a baseball season. They will experience heavy variance, but will turn a profit.

                                                It's not that it isn't predictable, it's just that so many other factors work against players...like money management and emotions.
                                                Comment
                                                • rkelly110
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 10-05-09
                                                  • 39691

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                                  KVB... been on this site for many years. A lot of posters have come and gone... Not one poster has ever been + money at the end of the season wagering baseball. So why wager it? Clearly isn't beatable.
                                                  I have, negative nancy. Baseball is the easiest to bet. No other sport plays 3 or 4 game series.

                                                  Pick a good team at home and chase if they lose. Money in the bank, money.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheMoneyShot
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 02-14-07
                                                    • 28672

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by rkelly110
                                                    I have, negative nancy. Baseball is the easiest to bet. No other sport plays 3 or 4 game series.

                                                    Pick a good team at home and chase if they lose. Money in the bank, money.
                                                    Not being negative Nancy... post your plays. I don't believe you. No offense.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • littlekona
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 11-19-15
                                                      • 5241

                                                      #27
                                                      Overs have been the very profitable play this season esp last few weeks they are a whopping 72-34-2 (68%) over the last eight days!






                                                      Comment
                                                      • StackinGreen
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-09-10
                                                        • 12140

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                                        KVB... been on this site for many years. A lot of posters have come and gone... Not one poster has ever been + money at the end of the season wagering baseball. So why wager it? Clearly isn't beatable.
                                                        This is totally false, I've beaten it the last two years.

                                                        I'm quite sure No Coin and LT have been up, they run long term thread results posts, don't they?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • StackinGreen
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-09-10
                                                          • 12140

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by littlekona
                                                          Overs have been the very profitable play this season esp last few weeks they are a whopping 72-34-2 (68%) over the last eight days!
                                                          I've noticed this too. Not many dominating pitchers like usual. Lots of runs. I've had a great season so far, and I play probably an equal number of overs and unders this year so far

                                                          Tonight I'm Giants Cubs over 7, Twins / O's under 9.5 ... looking good
                                                          Comment
                                                          • rkelly110
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 10-05-09
                                                            • 39691

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                                            Not being negative Nancy... post your plays. I don't believe you. No offense.
                                                            I'm in the MLB sub forum.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • littlekona
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 11-19-15
                                                              • 5241

                                                              #31
                                                              cubs over is gold...I think since they left Colorado all but one game has not went over
                                                              Comment
                                                              • StackinGreen
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-09-10
                                                                • 12140

                                                                #32
                                                                haha, my only loss of the night, come on, get a few vs Lester (7 was low for this year especially)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • KVB
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                                  • 74817

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I have a few thoughts and reasons on why, but I can say that this year, so far, the books have been taking larger size positions at a rather high rate compared to past marketplaces.

                                                                  We've seen it in both moneylines and totals since the beginning of the season. When sharps kicked in after a few weeks of play, the behavior continued.

                                                                  It will be interesting to see if it continues to continue.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Auto Donk
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 09-03-13
                                                                    • 43559

                                                                    #34
                                                                    HOW?

                                                                    This works best for me....

                                                                    CLARITY is the key:

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BennyBigNuts
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-16-12
                                                                      • 8700

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by rkelly110
                                                                      I look at money line odds. Bet the ML fav of the day. Let the books do the work for you.

                                                                      So far this month, the ML fav of the day has won everyday. (Watch, after I said this, the bottom will drop out.)

                                                                      Many ways to cap. Teams don't like to be shut out. Look for a series when the team has lost 2 games.
                                                                      Bet the team that lost twice.

                                                                      One guy in here was betting just about every home team fav and would chase the next 2 games in the series if
                                                                      he lost the 1st game. Did pretty well. A lot of games to bet though and chasing can bite the butt.

                                                                      You can bet both sides of the same game if the odds are right. Risking a lot to win a little.
                                                                      Look for minimum -RL odds of +220 and the opposing team ML odds of +220 or above. One run game
                                                                      can bite you if the -RL won by one run. It happens, but not often.

                                                                      Immotive8 is running a revenge thread. Teams that were shut out and in their next meeting with the team
                                                                      that shut them out, bet the team that was shut out. If you lose, chase the next 2 games.

                                                                      I'm running a lost 3 su and ats thread. Betting those teams for 3 games. Hoping for a win during that time.
                                                                      Right now at 58%.

                                                                      GL
                                                                      Rule 1 for you to learn how to handicap MLB....Ignore this whole post
                                                                      You'll be in good shape already
                                                                      Comment
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