Edge against an effecient market?

[Gaze73]

I don't know how to backtest. But some of my systems are also not number based. For example when my bookie recommends a home favorite I know I can fade it without a second thought. Btw nice avatar Spoon.

[danshan11]

does the result of the system give you an accurate line for the game?

[SilverSpoon111]

Thanks Gaze lol mine isn't realy nothing like that gaze a little different then what you mentioned & danshan it dont matter what the opening line is for this i take spread no matter what obv if i see like a +11 open at i wait a few hours and it goes to 11.5 ill wait to see if it goes to 12 if it goes back to 11 it dont matter its still a play and the thing about this is there's not 20 plays a week may only be 5-10 during NBA season so its more slightly more then calling it a spot play but its not a 4-5 game a day type system either. It will ALWAYS be the road dog and they will always be getting points.

[danshan11]

I know you dont like advice about your "systems" but a smart guy a real asshole but a smart guy one time told me this story,

he had a friend, guy was awesome at picking winners (now remember these guys are older pre internet days) and the guy gave his friends pick and had a good rep just picking winners. Anyway he one day said penetrate it I am gonna take this serious and he went to a big time syndicate at the time and they said sure yeah no problem lets have an interview.
q#1 how long you been winning
long time PASS
q#2 how many people follow your picks
shit ton PASS
q#3 who do you like in the Baylor game saturday
Baylor for sure at home PASS
q#4 what line you got on Baylor
I dont make lines I go by who is going to win, THANKS FOR COMING AND GOOD LUCK !
I believe this story and the moral of the story is
if you dont create lines and your lines are not close to the closing lines, you cant make money! yes there are more things but this prerequisite 1, dont kill the messenger but the message is true!

[danshan11]

that story is real brother not made up and not changed or modified to push a point, it is fact of the business

[SilverSpoon111]

I know you dont like advice about your "systems" but a smart guy a real asshole but a smart guy one time told me this story,

he had a friend, guy was awesome at picking winners (now remember these guys are older pre internet days) and the guy gave his friends pick and had a good rep just picking winners. Anyway he one day said penetrate it I am gonna take this serious and he went to a big time syndicate at the time and they said sure yeah no problem lets have an interview.
q#1 how long you been winning
long time PASS
q#2 how many people follow your picks
shit ton PASS
q#3 who do you like in the Baylor game saturday
Baylor for sure at home PASS
q#4 what line you got on Baylor
I dont make lines I go by who is going to win, THANKS FOR COMING AND GOOD LUCK !
I believe this story and the moral of the story is
if you dont create lines and your lines are not close to the closing lines, you cant make money! yes there are more things but this prerequisite 1, dont kill the messenger but the message is true!

100% wrong ive been doing it 2 years and and have been profitable by a good margin in NBA i stricly only play this system i dont dabble on nothing else now this dont work in baseball football tennis soccer it works in NBA a college for the 2 years ive been doing it you have no idea what it is if i actually broke it down to you and explained what it is i did instead of you thinking you no it all and have all the answers you would be suprised now i dont no if this is a winning system for next 10 years or it might not come out positive this year. just saying i "think" i could be onto something nice.

[SilverSpoon111]

From the sounds of it you should be printing money had over fist.

[danshan11]

I think you have a misconception of how winning works, you think if you create this "system" it just wins and you are rich. Capping games is a business not a bucket of a gold. There is no rainbow, there is a long term ROI and it takes a grind, I personally have had success in basketball and small sample size football but in reality I am not at the point where I would say I found even the bucket, forget the gold that is suppose to be in the bucket. You watch too many twitter touts, driving yachts, spending millions on afterparties and the SI models in swimsuits, this business is not like that, here is the image of how this business works. its more like this just image off the web

[danshan11]

4 screens staring at stats and speadsheets, creating power rankings, making fair lines, checking injury reports, monitoring line activity, checking for twitter injury or game updates, and reviewing everything you did twice trying to make sure you did not overcompensate or miss something.

[danshan11]

constantly trying to modify or tinker with something so you can get a hair closer to the closing line for tomorrows games, its not sleep till 12, get up crack a beer, bang your model girlfriend place a few bets and count your money

[danshan11]

do you do the MLB silver?

[danshan11]

do you do wnba?

[SilverSpoon111]

You must mistaken me for some moron on here i no what it takes trust me ive spent the last 10 years of my like all day everyday doing this stuff im not like most clueless people just throwing darts on here i no how hard it is and i also no what i have. 4 computers is cute to looks at but you and i no thats all for show looks like your at some sort of school.

[SilverSpoon111]

do you do wnba?

Its works in WNBA as well also i dont make no plays the first 2 weeks of the season and 2 weeks after all star break

[SilverSpoon111]

do you do wnba?

Also i was an ELITE horse racing tournament player a few years back it actually burnt me out you thin sports is hard lol try horses enjoyed in made good money but step away for at least a little because it was effecting my life i was doing it so much so i moved to sports so ive been in this game i no what it takes im not your avg joe on here just hard to find others that actually no what there talking about to.

[danshan11]

You must mistaken me for some moron on here i no what it takes trust me ive spent the last 10 years of my like all day everyday doing this stuff im not like most clueless people just throwing darts on here i no how hard it is and i also no what i have. 4 computers is cute to looks at but you and i no thats all for show looks like your at some sort of school.

that is an image off the web of what a cappers desk looks like, that is just an internet image.
Dude if you are saying you know what it takes to win, then wtf are you talking about with "systems" and contact me and I guarantee I can win this many straight and CLV dont mean shit, Dude those are not words of someone doing this for a living. Listen dude all those smoke and mirrors things are good for touts but MOST touts dont win, winning is penetrating hard and there is no "system" that does it unless you are creating lines and they are good solid as can be lines and then MAYBE just MAYBE you might win!

[SilverSpoon111]

I still might actually go back to it next year and just grind the NBA with this syatem and do my horses WAY more profitable ive took down 50k gurantee online tournament also 2 20k's.

[SilverSpoon111]

that is an image off the web of what a cappers desk looks like, that is just an internet image.
Dude if you are saying you know what it takes to win, then wtf are you talking about with "systems" and contact me and I guarantee I can win this many straight and CLV dont mean shit, Dude those are not words of someone doing this for a living. Listen dude all those smoke and mirrors things are good for touts but MOST touts dont win, winning is penetrating hard and there is no "system" that does it unless you are creating lines and they are good solid as can be lines and then MAYBE just MAYBE you might win!

No you get the impression everyone is a "tout" nobodys here to tout i could give a shit weather you win or lose lol.

[danshan11]

Its works in WNBA as well also i dont make no plays the first 2 weeks of the season and 2 weeks after all star break

why cant you play your "system" within the first 2 weeks of the year? that makes me assume (remember assumption) it is somehow based on the games that happened just before the game, which to me is ROOKIE mistake #1.

[danshan11]

dude what are the ten biggest rookie mistakes in no particular order?

[SilverSpoon111]

why cant you play your "system" within the first 2 weeks of the year? that makes me assume (remember assumption) it is somehow based on the games that happened just before the game, which to me is ROOKIE mistake #1.

Anytime you think you really can out handicap me for money you no where i left my email you think cause you pull some random photo of some computer monitors im impressed lol your also playing video games on them good job you won 3 games in the handicap tournament so you think your slick i can say that about the 7 games i just won in a row in MLB in the 2.5k aguest contest short term means shit i no what i have like i said anytime you think you got what it takes in the NBA you no where my emails at we can do this for real money i dont care about some betpoints i LOVE competition especially with people who think there better.

[danshan11]

I told you 25 times bro that is how a setup looks THAT IS NOT ME that is an image off the internet, I said it when i put it up and repeated it 20 times. Winning a 9 game tourney in sports betting and thinking that means anything is rookie mistake#2. Dude you dont even set lines how the freak can you pick winners if you cant even set a line? Dude you are motivated and post all day and seem wholeheartedly interested that is awesome BUT you need to use that motivation to learn how to penetrating win. You keep threatening a competition between me and you and the only competition that would give an indication that one of us is better than the other is a line competition. You think the Yankees cover, and I think the Yankees line closes at 150, that is a huge difference. I will make you a deal I will pay you in BTC 2 to 1
we both post an address and we pick 5 games that no lines are out for yet and the one with higher clv avg wins the money, MLB or WNBA if we are doing it let me know and I will get specific with the rules and we can do it BEFORE THE LINES COME OUT TOMORROW NOON CENTRAL

[danshan11]

and dont even try we will have a competition of winners instead because winners are coin flips dude, line value is not.

[SilverSpoon111]

I told you 25 times bro that is how a setup looks THAT IS NOT ME that is an image off the internet, I said it when i put it up and repeated it 20 times. Winning a 9 game tourney in sports betting and thinking that means anything is rookie mistake#2. Dude you dont even set lines how the freak can you pick winners if you cant even set a line? Dude you are motivated and post all day and seem wholeheartedly interested that is awesome BUT you need to use that motivation to learn how to penetrating win. You keep threatening a competition between me and you and the only competition that would give an indication that one of us is better than the other is a line competition. You think the Yankees cover, and I think the Yankees line closes at 150, that is a huge difference. I will make you a deal I will pay you in BTC 2 to 1
we both post an address and we pick 5 games that no lines are out for yet and the one with higher clv avg wins the money, MLB or WNBA if we are doing it let me know and I will get specific with the rules and we can do it BEFORE THE LINES COME OUT TOMORROW NOON CENTRAL

Higher clv average lol 5 plays? im talking a big boy tournament 5 plays is pure luck i want over time where i can prove m better 5 games is laughable.

[SilverSpoon111]

I want something worth my time and money

[danshan11]

over time sure what do you want to do dude, if its wins and losses there is nothing to talk about IM out, if you want to do line value we can do it anytime just give me your idea of the terms

[danshan11]

I want something worth my time and money

more dumb tout talk, my time my money, what are you an 80s pimp?

[SilverSpoon111]

LOL exactly what i thought

[SilverSpoon111]

big gums quick feet

[danshan11]

big gums quick feet

are you drunk? you did not read what I wrote 10 minutes before you said this?

over time sure what do you want to do dude, if its wins and losses there is nothing to talk about IM out, if you want to do line value we can do it anytime just give me your idea of the terms

[SilverSpoon111]

more dumb tout talk, my time my money, what are you an 80s pimp?

Your the who always talks about over time and you wanna do a 5 play contest lol you cant be serious then i call you out and you put out touting??? your trying to hard boss im not touting i wanna do something worth my time and money not doing a 5 play game cmon now man im talking at least a month or 30-60 plays something along those lines.

[SilverSpoon111]

[QUOTE=SilverSpoon111;27963380]Your the who always talks about over time and you wanna do a 5 play contest lol you cant be serious then i call you out and you put out touting??? your trying to hard boss im not touting i wanna do something worth my time and money not doing a 5 play game cmon now man im talking at least a month or 30-60 plays something along those lines.[/QUOTE


Wait tout talk? im the won who wants to play for money HU but im tout talking no your back peddling quicker the deion in his hay day.

[danshan11]

sure no problem we can do that, not an issue, line value sure, wins and losses 30-60 is a waste of time we wont know anything in less than a couple hundred plays. Wins and losses are variance, line value is you know what you are doing or you dont,

[danshan11]

Your the who always talks about over time and you wanna do a 5 play contest lol you cant be serious then i call you out and you put out touting??? your trying to hard boss im not touting i wanna do something worth my time and money not doing a 5 play game cmon now man im talking at least a month or 30-60 plays something along those lines.

5 play contest with line value will clearly tell you who is who, real real fast but if you want to do more line value plays sure not an issue

[tsty]

at the end of the day he is only betting $50 per game

there is a reason for that

just waiting for the link to his private skype chat where you need to $30 a month