Is Moneyline safest and most profitable bet in Basketball betting?

**Waterstpub87** · 08-22-19, 09:09 PM

Not safest. but they say that sharpes bet moneylines.

Consider the following:

Spread -110 -110

52.38 vs 50 = 2.38

Money line -170 150
62.96 vs 61.54 and 40 vs 38.46
1.42 vs 1.54

less vig. Depends where the break is

Not that is safer, but you will pay less juice over time.

Try to talk myself into it for basketball, but I'm not laying -1100 on GSW. Optics are too bad.

**coolguy73739** · 08-22-19, 11:25 PM

Well said. Couldn't agree more..
I was looking at this from a different perspective wherein you are sure of your edge and could foresee things clearly as to how the game is going to shape up based on the side Bookmakers are taking and is obvious to you.
Finally it all boils down to how well your model and analysis working in your favor.

**coolguy73739** · 08-23-19, 09:52 AM

ML can be so tricky sometimes.
Today's all three WNBA games are proof enough. Can't touch any of them for ML. Be sure of spread and play ML is the Mantra.
Liberty -Dream Over 155 seems the only safe bet imo.

**Gaze73** · 08-23-19, 11:07 AM

I have yet to see one guy making money on Basketball fav MLs. Laying -200 simply sucks. Can you hit 70% at -200? I don't think so.

**BigdaddyQH** · 08-23-19, 11:13 AM

ML's like any form of gaming, are always dangerous to play. The more games during a regular season, the more dangerous they become. Take College Football vs MLB. In a regular season College Football Teams play 12 games. The odds of a team like Alabama or Clemson winning all 12 games are pretty good, considering that neither team has lost more than one regular season game in the past 4 years and lost no regular season games in two of those four years. Now show me a team in MLB that comes close to that. They play 162 games in a season. Even tremendous favorites lose occasionally. See Houston vs Detroit recently.

**coolguy73739** · 08-23-19, 11:26 AM

You are right. ML can be tricky just like all other spread and Total bets.
The key here is to study all angles of a game & then decide what's your best chance to hit the wagers.
I did play Lynx ML last night & cashed but such opportunities are to be selected cautiously.
A good model is your best buddy in such scenario.
Hit rate of 70%at -200 odds is just next to impossible..

**coolguy73739** · 08-23-19, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

ML's like any form of gaming, are always dangerous to play. The more games during a regular season, the more dangerous they become. Take College Football vs MLB. In a regular season College Football Teams play 12 games. The odds of a team like Alabama or Clemson winning all 12 games are pretty good, considering that neither team has lost more than one regular season game in the past 4 years and lost no regular season games in two of those four years. Now show me a team in MLB that comes close to that. They play 162 games in a season. Even tremendous favorites lose occasionally. See Houston vs Detroit recently.

Number of games don't matter when you have a sound model that spits out winner after winner for you. In the absence of a strong system and impaccable Data analysis and practical application, winning any form of bet is far fetched and just a Fantasy.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 08-23-19, 07:28 PM

in the long run, i don't think it matters that much...

one nice thing about moneyline is it direct, not derivative like point spread i.e. players/coaches usually don't care about point spread. they care about win/loss i.e. moneyline.

i think a downside to moneyline is you can end up with strange returns in the short term on larger spreads (i.e. never win on underdogs or lose on a big favorite). moneylines on smaller spreads are much closer to 50/50 distribution that smooths things alot.

**coolguy73739** · 08-23-19, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

ML can be so tricky sometimes.
Today's all three WNBA games are proof enough. Can't touch any of them for ML. Be sure of spread and play ML is the Mantra.
Liberty -Dream Over 155 seems the only safe bet imo.

All ML holders must be struggling right now.. Good luck..lol

**Sawyer** · 08-24-19, 03:26 AM

Losers and recreational bettors bet favourites Moneyline. Pros bet spread.
Underdogs different story.

**coolguy73739** · 08-24-19, 06:01 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Losers and recreational bettors bet favourites Moneyline. Pros bet spread.
Underdogs different story.

If you can find value in favorite ML, there's no harm in betting this irrespective of your betting record. I have heard of cases where sharps only betting ML. All boils down to how good you analyze the game based on your system.
Spread betting is good but also challenging at the same time and hard to achieve success rate beyond 55%.
If I have analyzed my game properly and am sure of spread for the team, I would rather take ML of around -200 and feel satisfied as long as I'm winning.

**Gaze73** · 08-24-19, 06:17 AM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

If you can find value in favorite ML, there's no harm in betting this irrespective of your betting record. I have heard of cases where sharps only betting ML. All boils down to how good you analyze the game based on your system.
Spread betting is good but also challenging at the same time and hard to achieve success rate beyond 55%.
If I have analyzed my game properly and am sure of spread for the team, I would rather take ML of around -200 and feel satisfied as long as I'm winning.

You said 70% at -200 is next to impossible and you need 67% to break even. So if you're good you will grind at like 2% roi, is it worth it? If you know your dogs you can easily get into 25% roi spots.

**coolguy73739** · 08-24-19, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

You said 70% at -200 is next to impossible and you need 67% to break even. So if you're good you will grind at like 2% roi, is it worth it? If you know your dogs you can easily get into 25% roi spots.

I'm not purely into ML business. I was always a total guy betting on under/over.
I know I can't be winning 70% at -200 all the time but a few bets here and there won't do any bad in playing and winning.
I'm trying to search for best bet for long term profit but can't find one at this stage.

**coolguy73739** · 08-24-19, 06:44 AM

Betting Dog is for Degenerates !!

**veriableodds** · 08-24-19, 07:55 AM

Is it not easier to get 43/100 correct than 58/100 correct??

**TheMoneyShot** · 08-24-19, 11:35 AM

NBA is all about fading the public. Last 2 years.... Steam Plays are probably the worst in the NBA out of top 4 major sports.

**Gaze73** · 08-24-19, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

Betting Dog is for Degenerates !!

Uh huh.

**coolguy73739** · 08-25-19, 09:39 AM

I have no guts and Balls to bet UD.. Good Luck Sir !!

**Gaze73** · 08-26-19, 08:47 AM

Look, even in basketball the dogs are free money because favs suck. Favs seem to do well in playoffs but that's about it.

**coolguy73739** · 08-26-19, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Look, even in basketball the dogs are free money because favs suck. Favs seem to do well in playoffs but that's about it.

There's never FREE money in betting. Never.. Hats off to you if you can find winners in Dogs consistently..
I can win dogs once in a while but I can't make this practice as my Forte..
I'm fully focussed on ML or it's derivatives like spread and Totals..

**Gaze73** · 08-26-19, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

There's never FREE money in betting. Never.. Hats off to you if you can find winners in Dogs consistently..
I can win dogs once in a while but I can't make this practice as my Forte..
I'm fully focussed on ML or it's derivatives like spread and Totals..

You wouldn't believe how much free money there is. The market is retarded. Somehow efficient as a whole yet prone to massive mistakes in individual games. You think I got lucky with Podolsk winning 5:0? There's a good reason why I didn't take the spread, same with New Zealand.

**coolguy73739** · 08-27-19, 10:50 AM

Time to play ML.. With odds of 1.341, Las Vegas Aces is the Perfect bet for a Moneyline Play.
Returns are low ( but so is the risk as per my model and analysis) but Too good to just leave like that..

**coolguy73739** · 08-27-19, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

NBA is all about fading the public. Last 2 years.... Steam Plays are probably the worst in the NBA out of top 4 major sports.

By now I believe FADING THE PUBLIC is the term used by all squares and Joe Public. Bookmakers will never ever give you the true picture of the side public is betting on. That just contradicts and spoils their whole plan..

**vampire assassin** · 08-27-19, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

By now I believe FADING THE PUBLIC is the term used by all squares and Joe Public. Bookmakers will never ever give you the true picture of the side public is betting on. That just contradicts and spoils their whole plan..

Real bookmakers don't care who the public is betting on.

**coolguy73739** · 08-27-19, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by vampire assassin

Real bookmakers don't care who the public is betting on.

Lol..
Kid, you have no idea what I'm talking about.
How come you landed on this forum? Did you miss your school bus today ?

**vampire assassin** · 08-27-19, 12:44 PM

You think a bookmaker cares how Joe Square does? If he wins or loses? As long as he's taking crummy numbers, he's irrelevant. And a herd of public bettors (unless they bet so much that the risk becomes an issue) is irrelevant. If he wins, it's just a loan. Joe Square will take that loan, and lose it back.

When a sharp beats a book, that money is gone. You may beat him some days, but he's going to beat you long-term. And year after year, if you take his action, he will take your money. That money won't come back, and it is truly gone.

Now, if you're talking about those Mickey Mouse operators that kick out winners, sure. They care about public. But back to my original statement, those aren't real bookmakers. They are marketing companies.

**coolguy73739** · 08-27-19, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by vampire assassin

You think a bookmaker cares how Joe Square does? If he wins or loses? As long as he's taking crummy numbers, he's irrelevant. And a herd of public bettors (unless they bet so much that the risk becomes an issue) is irrelevant. If he wins, it's just a loan. Joe Square will take that loan, and lose it back.

When a sharp beats a book, that money is gone. You may beat him some days, but he's going to beat you long-term. And year after year, if you take his action, he will take your money. That money won't come back, and it is truly gone.

Now, if you're talking about those Mickey Mouse operators that kick out winners, sure. They care about public. But back to my original statement, those aren't real bookmakers. They are marketing companies.

You are all correct above but pls find out what FADE THE PUBLIC is supposed to mean. I have no time & energy to explain..

**coolguy73739** · 08-27-19, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

Time to play ML.. With odds of 1.341, Las Vegas Aces is the Perfect bet for a Moneyline Play.
Returns are low ( but so is the risk as per my model and analysis) but Too good to just leave like that..

34.1% growth in your asset (bet amount) in less than 2 hours cannot be a bad option after all, at minimum risk.
ML has it's bright side too.. GL

**vampire assassin** · 08-27-19, 05:01 PM

If you have a handicapper theory, put it up. If you just want to make cryptic statements how "Fade the public" doesn't actually mean "Fade the public", or has some other secret meaning, there is a forum for that also -- Service Plays?

**Gaze73** · 08-28-19, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

Time to play ML.. With odds of 1.341, Las Vegas Aces is the Perfect bet for a Moneyline Play.
Returns are low ( but so is the risk as per my model and analysis) but Too good to just leave like that..

You picked the shortest fav of the day and it wasn't even close, lost by 20 by HT. I swear when people on SBR post big chalk basketball favs they win like 55%. They lost by 21 on the road two days ago as favs, what made you think they were too good to pass?

**coolguy73739** · 08-28-19, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

You picked the shortest fav of the day and it wasn't even close, lost by 20 by HT. I swear when people on SBR post big chalk basketball favs they win like 55%. They lost by 21 on the road two days ago as favs, what made you think they were too good to pass?

My Bad.. Sorry..

**MattF** · 08-30-19, 09:23 AM

I like to play moneyline because it gives you the opportunity to win with underdogs when they upset the favorite. Of course I dont pretend to make money in the long run, I just say that as someone who bets as a hobby, getting the big return once in a while is part of the fun.

**dlowilly** · 08-30-19, 09:52 PM

You can break even or make money in the long run betting moneyline underdogs if you have a lot of outs to get the best possible price and you get good bonuses at a lot of those outs. That being said, a lot of the profit is gobbled up paying for new electronics and/or hair transplant surgery when your big college football moneyline underdog chokes away a huge 4th quarter lead again.

**Gaze73** · 08-31-19, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by dlowilly

You can break even or make money in the long run betting moneyline underdogs if you have a lot of outs to get the best possible price and you get good bonuses at a lot of those outs. That being said, a lot of the profit is gobbled up paying for new electronics and/or hair transplant surgery when your big college football moneyline underdog chokes away a huge 4th quarter lead again.

I was off by one minute. Love my doggos. As for chokes you can always cash out instead of sweating the last five damn minutes.

And look here, nobody bet on the home team even on Pinnacle, even sharps are stupid.