Baseball Same-Game Parlays

[d2bets]

Does anyone parlay the -1.5 runline with the over?
Is this correlated enough to be profitable if the parlay odds are the same (or better) than the regular parlay of the two together, where each odds is market better?

I'm able to do this, and I think there's a nice edge, but I'm not quite sure how to calculate my edge.

Anyone look into this before? I searched old threads and didn't really find much.

[Optional]

Be interesting to look at a back test. Even just based on closing numbers.

[d2bets]

Be interesting to look at a back test. Even just based on closing numbers.

Yes, it would.

Even more interesting stuff. I noticed the rules void the parlay when any leg pushes. Sounds bad, but it cuts both ways. It looks really good to me when the -1.5 is paired with O7.0 because I get the push at 4-3 either way even though I've lost the -1.5. So I'm always looking to parlay the road -1.5 with O7.0 when the odds are fair or better. Did this yesterday with Tampa -1.5 and got the push when they won 4-3. Funny thing is had the parlay been -1.5/O6.5 I would have lost rather than pushed.

Love to have the data but I feel my intuition on this is right.

[Optional]

Now that's a really interesting observation. I bet books have not spotted that leak.

Are you getting full odds?

I get a correlation discount at local Aussie books I use.

straight odds were 1.98 and 1.92



I also doubt I would get a push in the situation you are talking about.

[d2bets]

Now that's a really interesting observation. I bet books have not spotted that leak.

Are you getting full odds?

I get a correlation discount at local Aussie books I use.

straight odds were 1.98 and 1.92



I also doubt I would get a push in the situation you are talking about.

Not only am I getting full odds, oftentimes it's better than the straight parlay calc. It jumps around a lot. It's really weird. The Tampa one last night was +380(!). I think the straight calc at the time was like +350.

I put in your Yankees one and I'm seeing +310 even though the combo is -110/-105. Not sure I'm interested though because Yankees are at home so we don't get the bottom of the 9th. Much prefer that if Yankees were the road team.

[d2bets]

Example today:
Mets road RL -1.5 (+110 now)
O7.0 (-120)
Straight parlay calc is +285
I got the SGP at +320(!)

[Optional]

Hammer that stuff!

[d2bets]

Hammer that stuff!

Yes, sir.

[peacebyinches]

Yes, it would.
Even more interesting stuff. I noticed the rules void the parlay when any leg pushes. Sounds bad, but it cuts both ways. It looks really good to me when the -1.5 is paired with O7.0 because I get the push at 4-3 either way even though I've lost the -1.5. So I'm always looking to parlay the road -1.5 with O7.0 when the odds are fair or better. Did this yesterday with Tampa -1.5 and got the push when they won 4-3. Funny thing is had the parlay been -1.5/O6.5 I would have lost rather than pushed.

Love to have the data but I feel my intuition on this is right.

I feel like your intuition is right as well, and its intriguing that you can do a SGP at longer odds than the straight 2-leg parlay. The better odds and (maybe) the pushes make these appealing AF to bet if you can find a book that prices SGPs this way.

I was going to play devil's advocate and even typed out a whole theory on how the true ML underdog in particular tight matchups would have greater influence on the total assuming a normal distribution (bell curve) of runs scored for that team and blah blah blah. No need for that, bottom line is if you are getting SGP boosts for either: -1.5/over or +1.5/under your book is doing it wrong and you should be hammering those bets all day everyday. I'd go as far as saying if you get better odds on those SGPs compared to a straight up 2-leg parlay (with odds equivalent to vegas pricing) it's +EV to blindly take a side on every single game. Or weight your bets heavier on low run totals with the +1.5 run line and vice versa. That's bananas you can get correlated SG parlays at better odds than than an uncorrelated parlay. Bovada is so scared of this that you can't even bet same game MLB parlays even on the -1.5/under (which HAS to be negatively correlated for low run totals at the very least). Other books I've tried add juice to try an offset this and haven't found an example of a SGP at equal or better odds than the straight parlay would be priced at.

[d2bets]

I feel like your intuition is right as well, and its intriguing that you can do a SGP at longer odds than the straight 2-leg parlay. The better odds and (maybe) the pushes make these appealing AF to bet if you can find a book that prices SGPs this way.

I was going to play devil's advocate and even typed out a whole theory on how the true ML underdog in particular tight matchups would have greater influence on the total assuming a normal distribution (bell curve) of runs scored for that team and blah blah blah. No need for that, bottom line is if you are getting SGP boosts for either: -1.5/over or +1.5/under your book is doing it wrong and you should be hammering those bets all day everyday. I'd go as far as saying if you get better odds on those SGPs compared to a straight up 2-leg parlay (with odds equivalent to vegas pricing) it's +EV to blindly take a side on every single game. Or weight your bets heavier on low run totals with the +1.5 run line and vice versa. That's bananas you can get correlated SG parlays at better odds than than an uncorrelated parlay. Bovada is so scared of this that you can't even bet same game MLB parlays even on the -1.5/under (which HAS to be negatively correlated for low run totals at the very least). Other books I've tried add juice to try an offset this and haven't found an example of a SGP at equal or better odds than the straight parlay would be priced at.

It works great when the road team is the favorite. But what to do when the home team is the favorite? -1.5 to the over on the favorite certainly isn't as good because you don't get the bottom of the 9th. Road +1.5 to the under isn't so good for a similar reason. And then there's games lined 8.5 which seems unfavorable because to hit the over and -1.5 I'd need my road team to score at least 6, rather than 5.

So the way I'm filtering it, I'm only seeing maybe 1-4 good qualified plays per day. Am I missing combos that are still +EV?

Good discussion.

[d2bets]

I'm considering Angels -1.5/O9.0 at +295. I just don't love that the Angels are the home team, but I think the odds are good enough to overcome that, plus the push benefit on 5-4 either way. Straight calc odds now on that should be more like +267.

[Waterstpub87]

Understand the appeal, but this is an area I would tread lightly. I think a lot of the US books know where their weakness is/whats exploitable. They don't care enough to really lock stuff down like the better offshores did, but from what I've read, they are pretty quick when someone exploits mispricing.

I read a story somewhere. There is a certain onshore book that gives you chips when you lose. These chips can be used to randomly boost parlays, or offer parlay insurance. Being experienced, guys like us would know immediately how to exploit that. The problem is that they know it too. So when you do that, your account gets closed rather quickly.

They know the same game parlays can be a potential trouble source. Its likely that they watch them. If you started to exploit stuff, I would be concerned accounts may get closed quickly.

[d2bets]

Understand the appeal, but this is an area I would tread lightly. I think a lot of the US books know where their weakness is/whats exploitable. They don't care enough to really lock stuff down like the better offshores did, but from what I've read, they are pretty quick when someone exploits mispricing.

I read a story somewhere. There is a certain onshore book that gives you chips when you lose. These chips can be used to randomly boost parlays, or offer parlay insurance. Being experienced, guys like us would know immediately how to exploit that. The problem is that they know it too. So when you do that, your account gets closed rather quickly.

They know the same game parlays can be a potential trouble source. Its likely that they watch them. If you started to exploit stuff, I would be concerned accounts may get closed quickly.

Maybe, but I doubt it, in this case. Can't live/gamble in fear. Nothing unethical with betting the offered odds. I also happen to be down pretty big at this particular shop the past couple months, so I think they probably like me lol.

But if they really thought/knew it was exploitable and they cared, why wouldn't they adjust? They probably think people betting SGP's are suckers.

I've never heard of an account being closed, but certainly limiting can happen.

[peacebyinches]

It works great when the road team is the favorite. But what to do when the home team is the favorite? -1.5 to the over on the favorite certainly isn't as good because you don't get the bottom of the 9th. Road +1.5 to the under isn't so good for a similar reason. And then there's games lined 8.5 which seems unfavorable because to hit the over and -1.5 I'd need my road team to score at least 6, rather than 5.

So the way I'm filtering it, I'm only seeing maybe 1-4 good qualified plays per day. Am I missing combos that are still +EV?

Good discussion.

True, you do lose some value in those situations with the home favorites, but I would guess that the edge you're getting with the SGP outweighs the home/road status especially with the boosted odds. +1.5 and the under for totals less than 8 or maybe even 8.5? Sign me up for that correlated parlay all day and all night.

[Waterstpub87]

Maybe, but I doubt it, in this case. Can't live/gamble in fear. Nothing unethical with betting the offered odds. I also happen to be down pretty big at this particular shop the past couple months, so I think they probably like me lol.

But if they really thought/knew it was exploitable and they cared, why wouldn't they adjust? They probably think people betting SGP's are suckers.

I've never heard of an account being closed, but certainly limiting can happen.

Meant limited, typed closed.

I dont know where you got unethical from.

It is cheaper for them to figure out who is exploiting things and limit them, vs trying to make everything non-exploitable. The talent pool for people who understand sports gambling and who are willing work for a sportsbook is very small. How much would it cost them to hire a guy like you? Also, you don't get to gamble anymore if you take the job.

[d2bets]

Meant limited, typed closed.

I dont know where you got unethical from.

It is cheaper for them to figure out who is exploiting things and limit them, vs trying to make everything non-exploitable. The talent pool for people who understand sports gambling and who are willing work for a sportsbook is very small. How much would it cost them to hire a guy like you? Also, you don't get to gamble anymore if you take the job.

Hah. A lot. If I can work from home on my own terms and hours, 300k might do it.

[Waterstpub87]

Hah. A lot. If I can work from home on my own terms and hours, 300k might do it.

Ok. Add 100k on their side for benefits, equipment, software, taxes. Also you need support staff. You don't work 24/7, so they need other pricers. It adds up quick. A good trading team offering full coverage is going to run into the millions. If 1,000 sharps exploit their single game parlays for 10,000 a year, they lose less than hiring a team of people who actually price stuff well. Easier to just cut people off.

Its more obvious with things like that. It can't just be money won that gets you limited. I had a co-worker a few years tell me the story of how he made 30,000 betting the patriots every game on the moneyline the year they had the perfect season up to the super bowl. Any book that isn't moronic is going to look at that guy, and take his money every time. You win 10,000 betting correlated parlays, and they are going to catch on quickly.

Don't be afraid, not what I'm saying. You know what you're doing, its obvious by the posts. You can likely get more by being less obvious about what you're doing. I would assume they know things like single game parlays, live betting, non-us sports (except like EPL or something like that), and props are weak places for them. There profitable overall, otherwise wouldn't be offered.

Only had one US book limit me thus far. Its is likely one of the more square ones. Went from a max 250 on Japanese and Korean baseball to 50 max. MLB props from 200, to 50 as well. Odds were so bad, didn't really bet anything else there. Not really sad about it, they have a good signup bonus and gave lots of reload bonuses. I only really play major sports, non-us baseball and MLB props, so its not as much a concern.

[d2bets]

Ok. Add 100k on their side for benefits, equipment, software, taxes. Also you need support staff. You don't work 24/7, so they need other pricers. It adds up quick. A good trading team offering full coverage is going to run into the millions. If 1,000 sharps exploit their single game parlays for 10,000 a year, they lose less than hiring a team of people who actually price stuff well. Easier to just cut people off.

Its more obvious with things like that. It can't just be money won that gets you limited. I had a co-worker a few years tell me the story of how he made 30,000 betting the patriots every game on the moneyline the year they had the perfect season up to the super bowl. Any book that isn't moronic is going to look at that guy, and take his money every time. You win 10,000 betting correlated parlays, and they are going to catch on quickly.

Don't be afraid, not what I'm saying. You know what you're doing, its obvious by the posts. You can likely get more by being less obvious about what you're doing. I would assume they know things like single game parlays, live betting, non-us sports (except like EPL or something like that), and props are weak places for them. There profitable overall, otherwise wouldn't be offered.

Only had one US book limit me thus far. Its is likely one of the more square ones. Went from a max 250 on Japanese and Korean baseball to 50 max. MLB props from 200, to 50 as well. Odds were so bad, didn't really bet anything else there. Not really sad about it, they have a good signup bonus and gave lots of reload bonuses. I only really play major sports, non-us baseball and MLB props, so its not as much a concern.

Interesting perspective.

Finally had a HUGE day with these yesterday. Went 4-2 at odds ranging between +360 to +490. Made more than the amount you cited for catching on quickly lol. We'll see. Found one really good one so far today. Might be more later.

As for limiting, I've been limited at...well technically, to some extent at every book other than this one. Your state may have more options. We only have 7 at the moment.

[TommieGunshot]

Does anyone parlay the -1.5 runline with the over?

Anyone look into this before? I searched old threads and didn't really find much.

Not many people bet these, but those who do bet them (or have bet them), have looked into it. You won't find their information from any typical online search. The reasons for this should be obvious.

[peacebyinches]

Finally had a HUGE day with these yesterday. Went 4-2 at odds ranging between +360 to +490. Made more than the amount you cited for catching on quickly lol. We'll see. Found one really good one so far today. Might be more later.

Nice! Keep hammering these hard until they catch on to their egregious mistake!