jeff sagarin ratings question

**floridagolfer** · 11-18-09, 01:02 PM

No. You have to find the numbers and make the comparisons manually, which is really a time-consuming proposition when you're dealing with 75 college basketball games on a January Saturday.

**hillardoh** · 11-18-09, 01:55 PM

someone needs a computer program that can handle this. it is too much time consuming to do it manually. maybe justin 7 has a super computer to do this.

**hillardoh** · 11-18-09, 01:56 PM

please justin put this in a forum thanks

**hillardoh** · 11-18-09, 02:01 PM

maybe jeff sargain needs to do a weekly version with math done. Justin 7 do you think you could do a SBR video interview with sargain?

**floridagolfer** · 11-18-09, 03:26 PM

It would have to be a daily update if you think these numbers are worth figuring for the NBA, NHL or college hoops.

**Wrecktangle** · 11-18-09, 09:21 PM

here ya go: http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

you'll do about 50% tho...

**arwar** · 11-19-09, 01:22 AM

i'll write a program to do it. how can i share it without violating some kind of rule or TOS?

**Justin7** · 11-19-09, 02:18 AM

I've done research on his ratings. For the most part, you'll hit 50% following his ratings. There are some situations where you can follow his ratings blindly, but you'll have to identify those yourself.

**hillardoh** · 11-19-09, 08:24 AM

thats for football do you have one for basketball

**arwar** · 11-19-09, 11:09 AM

the guy is an MIT math guy so I respect his methods. I coded a little routine that goes out and grabs his ratings and then gets the lines from pinnacle. I outputted the results to a little web page. it shows the matchups, then the pinny line, the Sagarin rating with the 3.98 hometeam edge added in, the final column shows the visitor with the line added (or subtracted if they are the dog) and then next to the home team is a number showing the sagarin adjusted for home team subtracted from the sagarin adjusted by the line for the away team. I guess if you are interested in the results you can PM me and I will send you the link

**hillardoh** · 11-19-09, 01:09 PM

thanks dude

**arwar** · 11-19-09, 06:05 PM

did you get the link?

**arwar** · 11-20-09, 09:33 AM

well he went 10-9 on Thur nite. i picked three big ones (davidson, pitt, mont) and they went 0-3. on the USA site he tries to explain about connected and unconnected data. apparently he is saying that after they get on into the season that this year's data will predict the ratings. so i guess that means these goofy preseason matchups have to taken with a barrel of salt.

**tropolis** · 11-20-09, 09:54 AM

good stuff

**TWEETS** · 11-24-09, 09:58 AM

I just figured out that you can right click his ratings off the usatoday website and export to excel. Makes looking up numbers a lot faster.

**Wrecktangle** · 11-24-09, 10:42 AM

Build your own ratings..

... publicly followed guys like Sagarin offer little advantage, and when they do, their opinion gets quickly pounding into the market.

If you can't do this, then realize this is just a hobby, limit your bet sizes to manageable amounts and have fun.

...bottom line: if you can't do the math homework, you are doomed to lose in the long run...or even the short run.

**Formulawiz** · 11-24-09, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by arwar

the guy is an MIT math guy so I respect his methods. I coded a little routine that goes out and grabs his ratings and then gets the lines from pinnacle. I outputted the results to a little web page. it shows the matchups, then the pinny line, the Sagarin rating with the 3.98 hometeam edge added in, the final column shows the visitor with the line added (or subtracted if they are the dog) and then next to the home team is a number showing the sagarin adjusted for home team subtracted from the sagarin adjusted by the line for the away team. I guess if you are interested in the results you can PM me and I will send you the link

I guarantee if you follow the Sagarin ratings you will surely lose your shirt.

**hillardoh** · 11-24-09, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Build your own ratings..

... publicly followed guys like Sagarin offer little advantage, and when they do, their opinion gets quickly pounding into the market.

If you can't do this, then realize this is just a hobby, limit your bet sizes to manageable amounts and have fun.

...bottom line: if you can't do the math homework, you are doomed to lose in the long run...or even the short run.

who has the time to do all the math for every college basketball team. I dont.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-24-09, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by hillardoh

who has the time to do all the math for every college basketball team. I dont.

I suggest you get more efficient with programming

**Wrecktangle** · 11-24-09, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by hillardoh

who has the time to do all the math for every college basketball team. I dont.

Hilly, then you are just one of the unwashed masses on whose flesh the biz lives on...

...with this attitude I'd advise staying out of the tank.

**arwar** · 11-25-09, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I guarantee if you follow the Sagarin ratings you will surely lose your shirt.

I didn't mean to imply that I intend to follow him, I just intend to explore his methodology. Together with his MIT buddy Wayne Winston they pull down big bucks as consultants for the Mavs for their WinVal system and NCAA selection committee also uses him for March tournament selection and BCS.

**THE PROFIT** · 11-28-09, 02:08 AM

There is nothing to analyze in Sag ratings. Take the # to the far right & add 3.09 for home team. Subtract the small from big & there's the opening line

**Wrecktangle** · 11-28-09, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by arwar

I didn't mean to imply that I intend to follow him, I just intend to explore his methodology. Together with his MIT buddy Wayne Winston they pull down big bucks as consultants for the Mavs for their WinVal system and NCAA selection committee also uses him for March tournament selection and BCS.

BCS uses ELO and it is NOT, repeat NOT invented by Sagarin, it's out of the Chess world from Arpad Elo and only uses wins and losses. If he hadn't got hooked up with USA Today when they were starting out, he'd be a nobody.

...I met this guy Sagarin...he had Capt Kangararoo on the TV at the time, suspicious of everyone...

**floridagolfer** · 11-28-09, 12:46 PM

My question is, Why can't someone get the rankings updated on time? Saturday's games already are under way and his numbers only have been updated through Thursday. Can't be that complicated, can it?

**vinwon8** · 11-28-09, 12:58 PM

I have followed Sagarin for many years, and if you use his formula along with indef cappen, you can average 55%-58%. You have got to do the work i'ts just not handed to you. Work equals PROFIT!!!!

**arwar** · 11-28-09, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

My question is, Why can't someone get the rankings updated on time? Saturday's games already are under way and his numbers only have been updated through Thursday. Can't be that complicated, can it?

You are prolly going to his page try: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm

Updated: 11/28/2009 3:29:51 AM

**arwar** · 11-28-09, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

BCS uses ELO and it is NOT, repeat NOT invented by Sagarin, it's out of the Chess world from Arpad Elo and only uses wins and losses. If he hadn't got hooked up with USA Today when they were starting out, he'd be a nobody.

...I met this guy Sagarin...he had Capt Kangararoo on the TV at the time, suspicious of everyone...

Sagarin even calls elo the elo-chess rating and doesn't claim to have invented it. The BCS has used a number of different algorithms and rating systems. From 1998-03 they used as one criterion--

Computer average: An average of the rankings of a team in three different computer polls were gathered (Jeff Sagarin/USA Today, Anderson-Hester/Seattle Times, and New York Times), with a 50% adjusted maximum deviation factor.

Other factors included losses, strength of schedule and polls.

After 2002 they started using a Sagarin designed hybrid version of ELO.

Captain Kangaroo and paranoid to boot...I love it

**Fishhead** · 12-06-09, 10:22 AM

I like the Sagarin chess rating.......he has been spot on with Iowa all year long, ranking them #1 for a few weeks.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 12-06-09, 10:35 AM

Great, Fishhead. I like grapes. Thanks for the meaningful contribution.

**arwar** · 12-17-09, 02:30 PM

Here are calculations using today's Sagarin pwer ratings and Excel normdist() to figure a probability of winning v the spread. I have only included the p(win)>.55.
These only represent Sagarin - any other factors (injuries, etc) must be considered,

florida state 0.60 -9.5
new orleans 0.63 11.5
fla intl 0.72 16.5
unlv 0.63 -13

**Wrecktangle** · 12-17-09, 10:39 PM

Good luck with this. Long term works about 50.5% of the time.

**floridagolfer** · 12-18-09, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by arwar

You are prolly going to his page try: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm

Updated: 11/28/2009 3:29:51 AM

Wow! CBB numbers updated on this site but not on the Sagarin home page; go figure.

**arwar** · 12-18-09, 10:51 AM

I don't know where it will go, I am just tracking the 'stronger' plays. Yesterday was 2-2 but FLA INTL was the strongest. Anyway today is:

CS NORTHRIDGE -3 0.68
UC IRVINE -2 0.81
NEW MEXICO STATE 3 0.68
AKRON -11.5 0.77

so CAL IRVINE v SAN JOSE ST is p(win -2)=0.81

**jlaudio29** · 11-03-10, 04:39 PM

Sorry to bring this post back from the dead.

This may help with what you all are looking for. My GF's brother is a programmer for a popular internet deals site, so one night i came to him with the same problem you all had as far as not wanting to do the math for so many teams. So... he came up with this.

Its hard to get the entire picture of the grid on my small laptop screen, its better on my 22inch. Ok so anyways..

Home team is down the right side, and has whatever the home advanatage is factored in. away teams on the top. so just follow the home team over till you get to the away team and boom you have the math done for you. Greener means bigger home favorite, red means bigger home dog.

If anyone is interested in using this, youll have to get the add-on call "grease monkey" its an overaly for websites so you can customize them to your liking.... so i had him make custom script for sagarin rankings, i know it works on NBA and NFL and College.

SO let me know if you like it and ill post the download for the script. as i stated before, this is an overlay of the original website, youll browse like normal and it just overlays this grid in the lower portion of the page. If you want to turn it off grease monkey puts a little monkey icon in the lower left portion of your browse you just click him and it turns it off.