Tailing Successful Cappers.

**blix177** · 02-05-10, 02:04 AM

If they are all +EV and their +EV are the same across the board, you should use 7-8 bets per day rather than 1-2 bets per day. This will reduce your volatility, which would make for steady growth.

**daneault23** · 02-05-10, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by blix177

If they are all +EV and their +EV are the same across the board, you should use 7-8 bets per day rather than 1-2 bets per day. This will reduce your volatility, which would make for steady growth.

By +EV, do you mean a positive Expected Value?? Sorry, I haven't been into betting that long so please forgive me for asking such questions.

**blix177** · 02-05-10, 02:34 AM

yup, positive expected value.

**blix177** · 02-05-10, 02:37 AM

But if that guy can keep 67% win rate I would just go 1-2 bet with him only. But I doubt he will keep that up. Even 55% win rate is amazing.

**daneault23** · 02-05-10, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by blix177

But if that guy can keep 67% win rate I would just go 1-2 bet with him only. But I doubt he will keep that up. Even 55% win rate is amazing.

Yeah, I doubt he will too. What sucks is that he only picks 2 games a day, usually 1 NBA and 1 NCAAB, so you either go 0-2 and lose, 1-1 and lose cuz of juice, or 2-0 and win, so in the long run you lose it seems. Since I've been betting more than just his games it hasn't been a big deal, but I'm still stuck on what to do.

**blix177** · 02-05-10, 05:10 PM

Well you should be more worried about people that pick more than 1-2 games a day. Suppose your a great stat capper, and part of your system is to only play game with 60% win rates. odds is your not going to find 10 games with that win rate. Be lucky if you even find 1 a day. So him picking 1-2 games is fine, just don't put more than 3% of your bankroll on it.

**daneault23** · 02-05-10, 07:47 PM

So, do you think it's wiser to only play a few picks a day with larger amounts?? I mean there are some days where I read picks and I believe they all have a good chance of hitting, but you know that hardly ever happens. All I'm trying to do here is maximize my profits just like everyone else.

Also, how am I supposed to decide if a bet has a +EV or not. How do you tell by looking at the lines? I'm a little confused about that part.

**marcoforte** · 02-05-10, 08:10 PM

I'm partial to diversification so I follow a large volume smaller bet strategy to minimize overall risk.

**Wrecktangle** · 02-06-10, 08:27 AM

I'd track each capper and calc their win rates at both the release number and the final closing number. Anyone who is doing better than 55% drop their rate to 55% especially when less than 30 picks.

**pats3peat** · 02-06-10, 05:52 PM

try finding people with writeups and have agreement on the plays i think is better
or if you really trust someone with proven seasons, then its alright. 1-4 plays a day whatever

**Sawyer** · 02-07-10, 12:17 AM

1 or 2 picks/day (max 3!) is the best approach in my opinion. What's the point of playing 8 games/day? Why lower your winning percentange?

Playing 2 plays/day is also a good approach. You won't go 0-2 often if you're a skilled capper and you will have more 2-0 nights than 0-2 nights.

A friend of mine told me that even with a %55 winning percentage, if you play 300 games/month, you will make more money than 100plays/month and %60 winning percentage. It's not true. Place 3 units on every pick and voila! You will make more money with %60!

In addition, people who play 10+ games/day are not very selective. You can be sure that you'll have a much better winning percentage if you play less games/day because you'll be more selective. Remember Quality comes before Quantity.

GL!

**Durrrr** · 02-07-10, 12:30 AM

I post usually 2-3 picks and my record of posted picks is pretty decent :> So I suggest 2-3 a day is best.

**skrtelfan** · 02-07-10, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

1 or 2 picks/day (max 3!) is the best approach in my opinion. What's the point of playing 8 games/day? Why lower your winning percentange?

If you pick up a $5 bill on the ground and see a $1 bill a few hours later, would you not pick up the $1 bill so you could average "$5 per found bill" instead of $3?

**LT Profits** · 02-07-10, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

If you pick up a $5 bill on the ground and see a $1 bill a few hours later, would you not pick up the $1 bill so you could average "$5 per found bill" instead of $3?

Exactly!

Point is to maximize PROFIT, not win %. It is better to go 55% over 100 plays than 60% over 30 plays.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 02-07-10, 02:38 PM

If you are focused and in the zone and hitting, go ahead and bet almost every game on the board. If you are just messing around or you are distracted (by the outside world). Stop, and wait for a solid bet, to do a small bet on.

But usually, just bet locks, unless you are doing like a bunch of +400 bets, in which case bet real small.

Some people like to win huge or lose small,

i like to grow my bank at a healthy rate.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 02-07-10, 02:39 PM

Who were you tailing dude?

**daneault23** · 02-07-10, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

Who were you tailing dude?

Pittviper at the Rx forum, Mex Stallion, MisterMJ at the Rx forum, Laker_crazy, and a couple more.

**reno cool** · 02-07-10, 03:35 PM

The reason it seems better to bet fewer games is because it's easier to get lucky and stay ahead overall a smaller # of trials. You are much more likely to find someone hitting at 67% if he's only betting a few games here and there. But that does not mean he's a better player or is actually playing with an edge. It's a safe bet that none of your successful cappers have any edge at all. Hence, the one with a smaller sample is the winner.

**daneault23** · 02-07-10, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by reno cool

The reason it seems better to bet fewer games is because it's easier to get lucky and stay ahead overall a smaller # of trials. You are much more likely to find someone hitting at 67% if he's only betting a few games here and there. But that does not mean he's a better player or is actually playing with an edge. It's a safe bet that none of your successful cappers have any edge at all. Hence, the one with a smaller sample is the winner.

Yeah that's true. However, one of the guys I've been following has gone 39-13 which is 75% by playing 2 games a day, including Toronto -8 and South Florida +8 for today another 2-0 day.

**Sawyer** · 02-07-10, 05:37 PM

You can make much more profit if you're selective. 2-3 plays/day.

Winning percentage, number of bets does not really matter. There's only one thing really matters in betting: Total Profit you made

So instead of playing 12 games/day, betting 50$ each; playing 3 games/day placing 200$ each is more profitable.

But everyone has a different style of course

**mintybetmachine** · 02-07-10, 05:42 PM

Pittviper has 52 posted picks over 26 days and you are just hoping on this random person?

Besides he said he is going for 60 wins out of a 100, so he can go 21-27 on you.

**Sawyer** · 02-07-10, 05:50 PM

There's a risk when tailing a succesful capper. If some one has a "very good" record, he may be on a winning streak or a lucky streak. That's why we always say "oh I started to tail that guy and he started losing! Jinx!".

So hitting %60-70 over 20-30 bets is not a big deal but if you can do it over 200-300 bets, then it's a very good sample size..

**Sawyer** · 02-07-10, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by mintybetmachine

Besides he said he is going for 60 wins out of a 100, so he can go 21-27 on you.

Yes, it's possible. Do you know Misterlock? This guy was hitting consantly over %65 in NCAAF, Wagerline. Last season, previous season.. He was hitting over %60 as well this season (it was something like %65) and a friend of mine started to tail him. Guess what? Misterlock went 1-13 and 6-12. Then he quit posting picks in Wagerline..

**Bones402** · 02-10-10, 01:13 AM

Im a fan of larger volume of bets for steady growth but it depends on what you want steady growth or just volatileness in the shorter run its really up to you and your preferences

**Bones402** · 02-10-10, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by mintybetmachine

Pittviper has 52 posted picks over 26 days and you are just hoping on this random person?

Besides he said he is going for 60 wins out of a 100, so he can go 21-27 on you.

ya but hes not gonna try to go 21-27 the rest of the year im sure

**THEGREAT30** · 02-10-10, 01:24 AM

tailing means that you are not serious about perfecting your craft

**pitman** · 02-10-10, 02:04 AM

I am a firm believer in less plays , bigger bets.
eg. i look over 50+ soccer games on a saturday, but from these 50+ games, I'm lucky to find 2 solid plays worthy of a bet.
i dont how "touts" can make 4 plays a day and "sell" these. even if there are only 5 games for that day....

**mintybetmachine** · 02-10-10, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by THEGREAT30

tailing means that you are not serious about perfecting your craft

**simsity19** · 02-10-10, 04:10 PM

Systems come and go but research and personal experience are your real weapons in this fight. Following somebody's work is not that reliable in the long run. I only read other people's opinions and try to get them to fit into my criteria. Mabe a detail that I missed or something like that. I like reading forums for everyone's regional prospective on things. If I am making a play in the Big East, I may read a comment from somebody in that area of that country. THEGREAT30 is right on with his statement. Plus the fun is in the work you put in and seeing the reward.

**terpkeg** · 02-11-10, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by pats3peat

try finding people with writeups and have agreement on the plays i think is better
or if you really trust someone with proven seasons, then its alright. 1-4 plays a day whatever

This tends to be my philosphy when tailing. PittViper does not have a large enough sample size to warrant tailing imo.

Be careful, I have a feeling this is not going to end well for you.

I would suggest using excel sheet for all of your plays, think longterm, keep yourself in check at all times. Cannot be stated enough. Very difficult, but gets easier with time.

**ewrestling4c** · 02-11-10, 06:48 PM

2-3 do your research and make the best plays, 10 games and such people start to reach

**wesleysnipes** · 02-13-10, 03:50 AM

Hello. My name is alfred kelley- and i actually win consistently with sports betting now. And i've asked the same question before. The answer- is you should follow 1 good sports handicapper, and betting more games with a smaller % per game is better than betting fewer games, with a higher % on each game. why? because first of all if you play few games and hit a high %, you would make a fair amount of money, but if you play more games and hit a lower %, you would make way more money. It's not about the win %, it's about how many units you are up. And diversication with games would put you up significantly. When you place a higher % on fewer games being played- you are breaking the rules of money management- which states bet 1-5 percent of your bankroll per game. Usually on the lower end of that. You should never bet 10-15 percent or any high percentage on a game. Because any game could lose at any time. Now for those who think that 5 games per day is too much. Or being a volume better is not good. You have to understand that first off their are many games being played per day- some 30 some 80, etc... The point is their is plenty of value. Now my capper for ex: literally researches each game on the board. So if he's playing a college basketball game, he'll study each game, etc.. so on and so forth. That's why he usually come out with games in the evening time, with the exception if it's on the weekends. Furthermore- you dont want to put all your eggs in one basket- diversify yourself with games, and ultimately find a successful sports bettor who can consistently win. Which a lot of handicappers cant over the long term. I have only found 3 sites- that i can trust to be here the next 5-10 years and even longer. 1 of the guys have been in biz for over 40 yrs, and the other guy has been in biz for over 20 yrs- and has almost a quarter of a million people signed up to his newsletter getting his sports picks, and the latter website- is a list of all the top sports cappers online in their sports. Good luck to you. And i can talk all day, giving you advice. But i do want to say a few more things. Today, i got a call from a sports bettor- he told me to put $1,000 on west virginia -3. I asked him how much he was putting on the game- he said he was putting $7,000 on the game. He didn't follow any type of money management principle whatsoever. And by the way my capper- went for pittsburgh +3. To make a long story short- In the 3rd overtime the game ended. Pittsburgh won 98 to 95. Who ever thought this college basketball game would go to the 3rd overtime. That's a perfect example why you should never bet all your money on one game, or bet fewer games with a higher % of your bankroll on the game. Because losing days/losing weeks does happen/and sometimes losing months- which if you're betting a significant % of your bankroll per game- it would greatly decrease your bankroll. Another example was the colts vs saints game. Everybody and their mamma was going for the colts- and peyton manning to cover the spread, and some just bet on them to win straight up. One of my friends at church was going for the colts. Hell. even i was going for the colts. lol. But i didn't bet on the colts, and personally i didn't have an opinion. Once again, i got a call from a so-called sports handicapper- he told me to go for the colts on the spread. Later on that day- i got my info from my capper- he says go for the saints plus the points and the under. To make a long story short- the game could've went either way- peyton manning had a chance to tie the game up, he was not far from a touchdown- the ball got intercepted, and saints score a touchdown. No way they coming back. I won the game. As said a game could go either way. You just never know. A quarterback could get injured, a basketball player could get a flagrant foul and be taken out of the game, a baseball player could get hit with the ball, a hockey player could get into a fight, hell.. the lights could go out in the stadium. Anything could happen. Sure- did i win those games- yes, but still it could've went either way. Why would you want to put a large amount of hope, and money on a game. It's better to diversify it, and if your money management 2-3 percent is in place- and you can bet 1,000 dollars per game, you would be doing it right. Because your bankroll can do that, and you survive losing streaks here and their, and if you hit 55-57 as a volume sports bettor you would make a ton of profit over the long haul. Good luck once again, and remember it is not what you know, but who you know. Which the who you know part is very hard. I've put a lot of trust into these so called cappers who call me on the phone, to later learn that they cant hit games, or they dont have money management principles, or they just downright scam me. One person told me he managed my money, and he would place my bets over the phone calling the las vegas casinos, and he told me he knew ben affleck, and matt damon- which im told him in an actor- and he lied about everything. I found out later- that you couldn't even place bets over the phone calling the casinos up- it's against the las vegas laws. I've suffered a lot of stress, and trials over time. But they have simply made me smarter, and that much more successful with sports betting. I've had racist comments called to me. Im talking about the guys who seem nice and professional, and i say im not interested, and i feel like you're scamming me- they'll cuss me out with every word in the book. It's ridiculous. Another example that anything can happen in a game, and that you shouldn't bet few games/higher percentage of your money per game. Is i was following this capper from a company called gamebrokersinc- he was very selective with his games- 1-2 games a day. He says he's the best,etc... b.s.. Anyway he doubled my money after one day- which he told me to risk all of my bankroll. I was excited. Then the next day- he told me to risk all of my bankroll on a 2 team parlay. He says it's going to win. And call him after the game wins. I would question him about money management, and what if the game doesn't win. And he keeps enthusiastically and rushly tells me it's gonna win. I have to go. bye. So to make a long story short- both teams lose. And i felt pretty depressed- all my money was gone. I called him, and he said he was in a meeting, then i called him later- then he said call him back tommorrow. Then i said what do you mean call you back, you just lost all my money. Then he said- you think you lost money, i lost 40k on that game. Just suck it up like a man and call me tommorrow. I did call him for the next 2 days- and won 2 more in a row- which i didn't have any money to play those games, and then after the 2 days- he told me to send him a % of what i had made over those 2 days. I told him i didn't play the games, and he ended biz relations with me. I kept calling him/harassing him for losing all of my bankroll. The whole point of this story is to show always use money management on the games that you bet. Nothing, i mean nothing is a guarantee in life, and in sports betting! Any capper that tells you to bet a large amount of your bankroll per game, they are a SCAMMER! Sports betting is get rich quick for some- which sports betting is lose money quick for those who come in with a get rich quick mentality. Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Focus on the long-term, and you can make a lot of money. I have failed a lot, but through those failures, i have gained knowledge, and through that knowledge- i have gained perfection, and through perfection- i am gaining success with sports betting! Good luck!

**wesleysnipes** · 02-13-10, 03:57 AM

For those of you who want to learn more about me: My name is alfred kelley. My myspace is: myspace.com/alfredkelley.

**reno cool** · 02-13-10, 07:23 AM

Pal, you got to break that shit up in paragraphs. More importantly, if a quarter of a million people were making winning plays, the sportsbook industry would cease to exist. Stop promoting misinformation. If you insist on tailing these people, why not report back after several hundred games. A ten day winning streak isn't going to impress anybody.