kick·back n.
1. A sharp reaction; a repercussion.
2. Slang A return of a percentage of a sum of money already received, typically as a result of pressure, coercion, or a secret agreement.
For this discussion we are talking definition 2, we will also assume both parties willfully enter into the kickback agreement without excessive 'pressure, coercion'. It may well be a secret but that is not necessary for the discussion I am interested in having here.
We are talking kickback wrt to sportsbetting here folks. An agreement between two parties that a % of a red or black figure will be returned to the other party. I know of two basic forms of sportsbetting kickback:
1. The rakeback kickback. This is common for books to offer lifetime losing bettors or potential losing bettors. An example would be that a bettor gets 10% back on net losses. After X amount of time the net figure is reset, this time X and the % kickback is important in knowing how to go about beating said book...which is what we are after here in handicappers think tank.
2. The referral kickback. This is a common kickback that an advantage player will offer someone as a payment for getting them into a sweet book. For example my friend in China know a guy who takes 5k on 1q nba sides and lets you buy pts for 10c. I offer my friend 10% of my weekly black figure vs said bookie as incentive to place bets for me. Again, how this agreement is structured must alter the way we go about betting with this China bookie...which is what we are after here in handicappers think tank.
Ok...now that we have our definitions down on paper lets talk some strategy. I tried to do some research on this topic in Beyond Counting but I have no clue what that guy was saying. Lets start with rakeback kickback...we'll say that the bettor gets 10% kickback on losses, figure resets after one week. The way I see it the only way to take advantage of this is to bet big dogs (+300 or more) that are 0EV or better to get in the red. This is a variant of Depth Charging. Once one is in the red for the week the bettor can use the kickback to his advantage in EV calculations. Once one of these dogs hits the kickback is rendered useless and the bettor cannot factor it into his EV equations since he is in the black. Black figures don't get rakeback kickback they get straight cash. I think I have that one straight but I'm looking for improvement or feedback on strategy.
Now lets talk referrral kickback. In order to bet these nice Chinese 1q lines I need to give my friend in china 10% of my weekly net profits. When I make my first bet of the week this 10% off my winning bet needs to be taken into consideration when looking for bets. Lets say I cap the raptors 1q -3 at a fair line of -105. China guy posts -3 +100. I reflexively think oh man 2.4% edge lets bet it. But wait...with the kickback I'll owe on the winning bet the posted line is not actually +100, it's -111 and my bet has a -2.6% return with the kickback factored in. That's alot of $ to take off my winning bet. Now the math is easy on that 1st bet of the week but now we are getting to why I decided to open this topic of discussion. Lets say we are sitting with a large positive figure in our account half way through the week. A figure larger than the max bet that this guy in China accepts on any single event. So what are we factoring into our subsequent EV calculations? If our bets win then 10% is coming off of our weekly figure NOT the single bet's net. The effect of the 10% kickback grows smaller as our black figure gets larger and the less it seems we would need to worry about said kickback effecting our bottom line.
This is where my math stops and yours begins...please lets think tank this.
Johnny C.
1. A sharp reaction; a repercussion.
2. Slang A return of a percentage of a sum of money already received, typically as a result of pressure, coercion, or a secret agreement.
For this discussion we are talking definition 2, we will also assume both parties willfully enter into the kickback agreement without excessive 'pressure, coercion'. It may well be a secret but that is not necessary for the discussion I am interested in having here.
We are talking kickback wrt to sportsbetting here folks. An agreement between two parties that a % of a red or black figure will be returned to the other party. I know of two basic forms of sportsbetting kickback:
1. The rakeback kickback. This is common for books to offer lifetime losing bettors or potential losing bettors. An example would be that a bettor gets 10% back on net losses. After X amount of time the net figure is reset, this time X and the % kickback is important in knowing how to go about beating said book...which is what we are after here in handicappers think tank.
2. The referral kickback. This is a common kickback that an advantage player will offer someone as a payment for getting them into a sweet book. For example my friend in China know a guy who takes 5k on 1q nba sides and lets you buy pts for 10c. I offer my friend 10% of my weekly black figure vs said bookie as incentive to place bets for me. Again, how this agreement is structured must alter the way we go about betting with this China bookie...which is what we are after here in handicappers think tank.
Ok...now that we have our definitions down on paper lets talk some strategy. I tried to do some research on this topic in Beyond Counting but I have no clue what that guy was saying. Lets start with rakeback kickback...we'll say that the bettor gets 10% kickback on losses, figure resets after one week. The way I see it the only way to take advantage of this is to bet big dogs (+300 or more) that are 0EV or better to get in the red. This is a variant of Depth Charging. Once one is in the red for the week the bettor can use the kickback to his advantage in EV calculations. Once one of these dogs hits the kickback is rendered useless and the bettor cannot factor it into his EV equations since he is in the black. Black figures don't get rakeback kickback they get straight cash. I think I have that one straight but I'm looking for improvement or feedback on strategy.
Now lets talk referrral kickback. In order to bet these nice Chinese 1q lines I need to give my friend in china 10% of my weekly net profits. When I make my first bet of the week this 10% off my winning bet needs to be taken into consideration when looking for bets. Lets say I cap the raptors 1q -3 at a fair line of -105. China guy posts -3 +100. I reflexively think oh man 2.4% edge lets bet it. But wait...with the kickback I'll owe on the winning bet the posted line is not actually +100, it's -111 and my bet has a -2.6% return with the kickback factored in. That's alot of $ to take off my winning bet. Now the math is easy on that 1st bet of the week but now we are getting to why I decided to open this topic of discussion. Lets say we are sitting with a large positive figure in our account half way through the week. A figure larger than the max bet that this guy in China accepts on any single event. So what are we factoring into our subsequent EV calculations? If our bets win then 10% is coming off of our weekly figure NOT the single bet's net. The effect of the 10% kickback grows smaller as our black figure gets larger and the less it seems we would need to worry about said kickback effecting our bottom line.
This is where my math stops and yours begins...please lets think tank this.
Johnny C.
