Technical Questions

[Shev2]

What kind of programs do you use to handicap games? Do you do any modeling? Where do you get your data from? I'm pretty new to sports betting but am interested in seeing what kinds of tools are being used to ultimately help others make their picks. Not looking for your secret recipe or anything like that just from a nerd perspective:

• What programs do you use to track your bets? I use excel and just assume everyone else does but maybe there are others or even apps that work well on mobile. I don't know.
• Do you import data from your bets into databases? Do you maintain other databases? Are you using Access or SAS? I'm starting to accumulate enough data that I'm going to need to database it and catalog it. I'll look towards Access to start but I have ran into problem with Access in professional work when it comes to process large amounts of data. Might run into that problem betting both baseball and basketball. Lots of games.
• Do you build models to project games or help make picks? Simple models in excel? Models in R? Multivariable linear regression? How far into the stats are we talking here. I have used R for work in the past but not for sports betting. I want to build a complete baseball model that will help make moneyline picks and over/unders. Trying to size up the whole project, what it will take and what it's worth. Seems like a lot of benefits if I do it right.
• Where do you get your data from to handicap games? I've copy pasted from ESPN to excel. I've also gone to teamrankings for some betting information but I don't know if that's a good source or not quite honestly. Sports References lets you get tables as CSV which is awesome for excel and importing to databases. Those are my main ones at the moment.

Thanks in advance for the information.

[BigdaddyQH]

You are spending way too much time trying to figure out where to get the data, and not nearly enough time sticking to the basics. Normally (not always, but normally) the best team wins. Step one is to figure out who is the bet team. If you wagered on Alabama during regular season games only and wagered the Money Line only, you would be way ahead of the game. From 2011 until 2018, Alabama has never lost more than one regular season game in a season, and in two of those seasons, they went undefeated. So you have two 12-0 seasons and 6 11-1 seasons. That means if you wagered $100 per game, you would have two $1200 and 8 seasons where you would have won $1100 and lost one wager. The wager lost would have ranged between $210.00 and $550.00, meaning that the worst season you could have had was a +$650.00 for the season. The average is about $550.00 per season, meaning that you would have won an average of $650.00 per season, or $5200.00 over the 8 seasons. Have you won $5200.00 in 8 seasons. Few, if any people in here can say yes to that question if they answer honestly. And that is just one wager for a very small amount of money per wager.

The way to start wagering on a system like this is to wait until a two year pattern is developed. Boise State has been tremendously successful with this. After two year run where they went undefeated at 9-0. they went an additional 5 years of 0 or 1 loss season until the string was broken with a 7-2 record. They since have had 2 three year runs, but have still covered in total moneys wagered every year wagers were made fr them to continue the run, even when the run came to an end. In 2017, Clemson joined Alabama as a team to place a Money Line on every game. They went 11-1 in 2017 and 12-0 last season. Ohio State had a 5 season streak snapped in 2017.

That is an example of just one system that sharps use to make money. All of these "know-it-alls" spend hour after hour plugging numbers into their little math systems and worry their stupid little arses off trying to place a wager at "+0" and they still lose their arses year after year. Do you really think I am worried about next season knowing that I will wager on BOTH Alabama and Clemson to win every one of their regular season games? Do you really think that either one of these teams will lose more than 1 regular season game? And remember, when they do lose that 2nd game, like Boise State did in 2012 to stop a streak, you have the option of stopping your wagering at that point in time. Boise lost to San Diego State in game 9 of that season for their second loss. They won their final three games. I am sure that the "Haters" in here will comment on this, and to a degree I deserve their harsh comments. I have no patients for stupidity, and in case you have not noticed, this site is stuffed to the hilt with that. Just ignore those people and try my system. I am taking both Alabama and Clemson, Money Line, on every regular season game they play. Follow along, using a mythical $100.00 per game wager, and see how well I do.

[Shev2]

I have no patients for stupidity, and in case you have not noticed, this site is stuffed to the hilt with that

Unless you're a psychiatrist I would hope you don't have any patients for stupidity...

All joking aside that is some good info you provided and a lot to think about. Thank you for the response!

[Alfa1234]

Unless you're a psychiatrist I would hope you don't have any patients for stupidity...

All joking aside that is some good info you provided and a lot to think about. Thank you for the response!

Not joking, but if you think for 1 second those "sharps" make any money betting ML wagers like that with a "streak system" you are completely delusional. I can probably find another 500 of those "systems" right now. Any database with a bunch of stats can give you thousands of systems and winning teams that would have made you money. All the above is reflected in the odds and payout. It cannot work and mathematically you will be screwed doing this 100%.

[Bsims]

The wager lost would have ranged between $210.00 and $550.00,

I seriously doubt that you could have found M/L's on Alabama like this. Most would have been worse than -1000.

[BigdaddyQH]

I seriously doubt that you could have found M/L's on Alabama like this. Most would have been worse than -1000.

You know very little about money lines. Alabama's last regular season loss came as 6 point chalk against Auburn. Just what do you think the money line was for that? They also lost twice to Ole Miss in a two year period with the lines at -6 and -4. Are you trying to tell me that ANY of those games had a ML of over 1000? You do know that the ML's have a direct bearing on the spread, and vice-versa. I dare you to show me when ANY team was 4 point favorite over any other team and had a ML of -300 or more. You can't because there is no such game.

I am sure that there have been games where the ML on Alabama has hit over 1000. I am equally sure that Alabama has won every one of those games inn the past 15 years.

Alfa 1234. It is obvious that you know noting about sharps. I just proved to you the ongoing success of a system. The system is very restrictive. A solid winning system must have many restrictions. Any time you want to accept the challenge I am going to make to the SBR Pro's in here, just let me know. Let's see how much you really know about Football.

[Alfa1234]

You know very little about money lines. Alabama's last regular season loss came as 6 point chalk against Auburn. Just what do you think the money line was for that? They also lost twice to Ole Miss in a two year period with the lines at -6 and -4. Are you trying to tell me that ANY of those games had a ML of over 1000? You do know that the ML's have a direct bearing on the spread, and vice-versa. I dare you to show me when ANY team was 4 point favorite over any other team and had a ML of -300 or more. You can't because there is no such game.

I am sure that there have been games where the ML on Alabama has hit over 1000. I am equally sure that Alabama has won every one of those games inn the past 15 years.

Alfa 1234. It is obvious that you know noting about sharps. I just proved to you the ongoing success of a system. The system is very restrictive. A solid winning system must have many restrictions. Any time you want to accept the challenge I am going to make to the SBR Pro's in here, just let me know. Let's see how much you really know about Football.

Right.

2018-2019 season. Odds from Oddsportal.

Georgia VS Alabama, ML -415
Alabama VS Auburn, ML -5000
Alabama VS Citadel, NO ML available as spread was 62.5 points
Alabama VS Miss St, ML -2000
LSU VS Alabama, ML -590
Tennessee VS Alabama, ML-10000 (if you could find it at all)
Alabama VS Missouri, ML-10000 (if you could find it at all)
Arkansas VS Alabama, No ML available as spread was 35 points
Alabama VS Lafayette, No ML available as spead was 49.5 points
Alabama VS A&M, ML -5000
Alabama VS Ole Miss, ML-2000
Alabama VS Arkansas, ML -5000
Alabama VS Louisville, ML -2000

But sure, keep telling yourself you have a great system and your numbers above are real. To be clear, with every game won and 100$ bet/game you would have made a whopping 24+2+0+5+17+1+10+0+2+5+2+5=73$. A little far from 1200$, isn't it?

[byronbb]

I just read Winning Sports Betting by Masaru Kanemoto which should give you an idea about what goes into modeling.

[KVB]

…If you wagered on Alabama during regular season games only and wagered the Money Line only, you would be way ahead of the game. From 2011 until 2018, Alabama has never lost more than one regular season game in a season, and in two of those seasons, they went undefeated. So you have two 12-0 seasons and 6 11-1 seasons. That means if you wagered $100 per game, you would have two $1200 and 8 seasons where you would have won $1100 and lost one wager. The wager lost would have ranged between $210.00 and $550.00, meaning that the worst season you could have had was a +$650.00 for the season. The average is about $550.00 per season, meaning that you would have won an average of $650.00 per season, or $5200.00 over the 8 seasons. Have you won $5200.00 in 8 seasons. Few, if any people in here can say yes to that question if they answer honestly. And that is just one wager for a very small amount of money per wager. .

You are lying BigDaddy. You did not make these bets and none of your sharp friends made these bets.

Let’s pretend you meant to say “wager to win $100” and that you mistyped when said “wagered $100 per game” you still out yourself as a liar.

You are looking back, seeing the record, and then making the claim you predicted it. You have not wagered to win $100 on every Alabama moneyline like you claim.

In fact, you haven’t even wagered $100 on every Alabama moneyline like you claim.

Since 2011, there has not been a single season where you could have placed a wager on the Alabama moneyline for every game. In fact, in those 8 seasons 5 of them had 9 or less moneyline wagers available because of the size of the point spreads.

You are lying your ass off and always have been.

Next you’ll say sharps can get those moneylines, next you’ll be saying everyone needs a cash flow positive bookie.

I’ll concede, some will take those bets, but at the very least for real lines, you are telling Shev to bet $9000 to win $100 on some games or $100 to win $1.10, whatever you meant, as a full proof sharp strategy.

Yeah, all those big players have been dropping 10 grand some games and 5 grand many others so they could stack a few grand over 8 years.

What a dikk. Get out of the think tank you lying dipshit.

I could really embarrass you here and get game specific over the years, but let’s just leave it at a bettor betting $100 on the Alabama regular season moneyline for every game in the 2017-2018 season got down 8 bets and lost about $30 that season.

You lying asshole.

[KVB]

You know very little about money lines...

It's you who know very little about moneylines.

You owe Bsims and Shev an apology you lying piece of shit.

[KVB]

...I am sure that there have been games where the ML on Alabama has hit over 1000...

You know, maybe I'm too harsh on you here.

Maybe you really have absolutely no clue what you area saying or doing. But you are lying when you talk about 12-0 and 11-1 seasons.

You are sure there have been games where it has hit over 1000?

You sure fella? You really sure?

Because I know of many that have hit 8000, 9000 and 10000.

But, with your apparent level of knowledge, you would probably be surprised to hear that some were 4000.

Unreal.

You owe alfa an apology too.

[JacketFan81]

He's the biggest liar on a forum chock full of liars. It's impressive, really.

[qsgsg]

SBR needs to give everyone here their own personal list to mark liars and scammers. A checkbox beside the username would be good enough.

[Shev2]

I just read Winning Sports Betting by Masaru Kanemoto which should give you an idea about what goes into modeling.

I'll look into this. Should have time to read it. Thanks for suggesting.

[hubie69]

If you're looking to get involved in statistical modeling you first will need data to manipulate.

Learn how to scrape data or pay somebody to build the scripts to scrape the data you'll need. Have data handy to work with as you read through this book.

I've not read this book or heard of it but it might be good

[hubie69]

What kind of programs do you use to handicap games? Do you do any modeling? Where do you get your data from? I'm pretty new to sports betting but am interested in seeing what kinds of tools are being used to ultimately help others make their picks. Not looking for your secret recipe or anything like that just from a nerd perspective:

• What programs do you use to track your bets? I use excel and just assume everyone else does but maybe there are others or even apps that work well on mobile. I don't know.
• Do you import data from your bets into databases? Do you maintain other databases? Are you using Access or SAS? I'm starting to accumulate enough data that I'm going to need to database it and catalog it. I'll look towards Access to start but I have ran into problem with Access in professional work when it comes to process large amounts of data. Might run into that problem betting both baseball and basketball. Lots of games.
• Do you build models to project games or help make picks? Simple models in excel? Models in R? Multivariable linear regression? How far into the stats are we talking here. I have used R for work in the past but not for sports betting. I want to build a complete baseball model that will help make moneyline picks and over/unders. Trying to size up the whole project, what it will take and what it's worth. Seems like a lot of benefits if I do it right.
• Where do you get your data from to handicap games? I've copy pasted from ESPN to excel. I've also gone to teamrankings for some betting information but I don't know if that's a good source or not quite honestly. Sports References lets you get tables as CSV which is awesome for excel and importing to databases. Those are my main ones at the moment.

Thanks in advance for the information.

So I have a linux VPS with bash and python (and it's beautiful soup libraries) scripts that scrape and process the data I need. I store it in a mysql DB with a php front end I wrote.

I won't list in here where I get my data from for multiple sports but feel free to PM me, I'll try to answer your questions and I can get you going in the right direction.

[BigdaddyQH]

You know, maybe I'm too harsh on you here.

Maybe you really have absolutely no clue what you area saying or doing. But you are lying when you talk about 12-0 and 11-1 seasons.

You are sure there have been games where it has hit over 1000?

You sure fella? You really sure?

Because I know of many that have hit 8000, 9000 and 10000.

But, with your apparent level of knowledge, you would probably be surprised to hear that some were 4000.

Unreal.

You owe alfa an apology too.

It is time for me to kick your worthless ignorant arse. He is what we are going to do. I am going to post the ML on the games I wager. I will tell you the time and the sportsbook that I use to post the line. That will prove that the line is legit. Then you and I will have a little wager. Since you have no money to speak of, and since I would have to put you away permanently if you tried to welsh out on me, we will wager our bet points. 100 points per game against my taking the ML and giving the ML. So if the ML is -250, I wager 250 against your 100. I have Alabama and Clemson. You get their opponents. Regular season only. In case your math is a little rusty, that is 12 games. I will keep a running tally and the loser will pay up at the end of the season. I may be a cocky S.O.B. but I am going to prove to you lying poor retarded arseholes that I can kick any one of your butts any time I want. I have made more money wagering on football than any 20 of you people added up. I am not saying that my systems are the best. What I am saying is that no one IN HERE has a better one.

Do you have any questions KVB? The most you can lose is 2400 bet points. I can lose a lot more if you are stupid enough to believe that teams like Duke, New Mexico State and Western Carolina can defeat Alabama and teams like Charlotte and Wofford (Ranked #10, in the FCS) can defeat Clemson. Do not even think about trying to back out of this wager. You opened your big mouth. Now you are going to pay for it.

[BigdaddyQH]

Right.

2018-2019 season. Odds from Oddsportal.

Georgia VS Alabama, ML -415
Alabama VS Auburn, ML -5000
Alabama VS Citadel, NO ML available as spread was 62.5 points
Alabama VS Miss St, ML -2000
LSU VS Alabama, ML -590
Tennessee VS Alabama, ML-10000 (if you could find it at all)
Alabama VS Missouri, ML-10000 (if you could find it at all)
Arkansas VS Alabama, No ML available as spread was 35 points
Alabama VS Lafayette, No ML available as spead was 49.5 points
Alabama VS A&M, ML -5000
Alabama VS Ole Miss, ML-2000
Alabama VS Arkansas, ML -5000
Alabama VS Louisville, ML -2000

But sure, keep telling yourself you have a great system and your numbers above are real. To be clear, with every game won and 100$ bet/game you would have made a whopping 24+2+0+5+17+1+10+0+2+5+2+5=73$. A little far from 1200$, isn't it?

That is absolute BULL S**T and you know it. Do not go quoting me ML's from some Bull S**t company that does not even take wagers. All they do is CLAIM to compare lines from 60-80 different sportsbooks. Which sportsbooks do they use? Do you know? Can you tell me? Do they use ANY sportsbooks in Vegas, because those are the only books I use. To be perfectly clear you dumb f**k, if I wagered to win $100 per game on all 12 regular season games for both Alabama and Clemson, I would have won $2400.00 It does not matter what the ML is. I wager to win "X" number of dollars per game. By the way Mr. know-it-all, I will make the same wager with you as I did with KVB. As a matter of fact, I INSIST on it. Another f**king know-nothing runs his mouth and now has to pay for it.

[Barrakuda]

You know very little about money lines. Alabama's last regular season loss came as 6 point chalk against Auburn. Just what do you think the money line was for that? They also lost twice to Ole Miss in a two year period with the lines at -6 and -4. Are you trying to tell me that ANY of those games had a ML of over 1000? You do know that the ML's have a direct bearing on the spread, and vice-versa. I dare you to show me when ANY team was 4 point favorite over any other team and had a ML of -300 or more. You can't because there is no such game.

I am sure that there have been games where the ML on Alabama has hit over 1000. I am equally sure that Alabama has won every one of those games inn the past 15 years.

Alfa 1234. It is obvious that you know noting about sharps. I just proved to you the ongoing success of a system. The system is very restrictive. A solid winning system must have many restrictions. Any time you want to accept the challenge I am going to make to the SBR Pro's in here, just let me know. Let's see how much you really know about Football.

Literally do the opposite of what Bigdaddy suggests, and you'll be close to break even.

[Alfa1234]

That is absolute BULL S**T and you know it. Do not go quoting me ML's from some Bull S**t company that does not even take wagers. All they do is CLAIM to compare lines from 60-80 different sportsbooks. Which sportsbooks do they use? Do you know? Can you tell me? Do they use ANY sportsbooks in Vegas, because those are the only books I use. To be perfectly clear you dumb f**k, if I wagered to win $100 per game on all 12 regular season games for both Alabama and Clemson, I would have won $2400.00 It does not matter what the ML is. I wager to win "X" number of dollars per game. By the way Mr. know-it-all, I will make the same wager with you as I did with KVB. As a matter of fact, I INSIST on it. Another f**king know-nothing runs his mouth and now has to pay for it.

Pinnacle, Bet365, Matchbook, Betfair, Williamhill are some the companies in the list. Please stop lying to cover your ass. Actually, show me a few tickets and post them right here.

Links to the games and odds, you will see the lines were correct:

https://www.oddsportal.com/american-football/usa/ncaa-2018-2019/georgia-alabama-CQvMH7kl/

https://www.oddsportal.com/american-football/usa/ncaa-2018-2019/alabama-auburn-YLjOmw1t/

https://www.oddsportal.com/american-football/usa/ncaa-2018-2019/alabama-citadel-bulldogs-xGYKVqOc/

https://www.oddsportal.com/american-football/usa/ncaa-2018-2019/alabama-mississippi-st-jV0iJCwa/

I can't be bothered to post the rest. There is no point. Seriously dude, are you suggesting vegas lines are 15x higher than the Pinnacle line?? Why are you even here, if you found a holy grail and are apparently the only person in the world that knows about it?

[KVB]

BigDaddy get out of the think tank.

It's probably best you just don't respond to any of us in here. You are lying about bets you made and "won," it's already shown.

Your integrity is shot so take your battle to some other part of the Forum if you really want to continue to get buried.

Maybe someone will read your nonsense and pile onto you but because you just make stuff up, and claim bets that can't be made,and then wins that could have been made, far after the games are over.

Go bet with your positive cash flow sharp guys bookie, tell them your stories.

Alfa is right, it's just a waste of time with you. I've wasted enough already.

Get out of the think tank, you're no sports bettor. You're just the guy that makes things up.

[peacebyinches]

You are lying BigDaddy. You did not make these bets and none of your sharp friends made these bets.

Let’s pretend you meant to say “wager to win $100” and that you mistyped when said “wagered $100 per game” you still out yourself as a liar.

You are looking back, seeing the record, and then making the claim you predicted it. You have not wagered to win $100 on every Alabama moneyline like you claim.

In fact, you haven’t even wagered $100 on every Alabama moneyline like you claim.

Since 2011, there has not been a single season where you could have placed a wager on the Alabama moneyline for every game. In fact, in those 8 seasons 5 of them had 9 or less moneyline wagers available because of the size of the point spreads.

You are lying your ass off and always have been.

Next you’ll say sharps can get those moneylines, next you’ll be saying everyone needs a cash flow positive bookie.

I’ll concede, some will take those bets, but at the very least for real lines, you are telling Shev to bet $9000 to win $100 on some games or $100 to win $1.10, whatever you meant, as a full proof sharp strategy.

Yeah, all those big players have been dropping 10 grand some games and 5 grand many others so they could stack a few grand over 8 years.

What a dikk. Get out of the think tank you lying dipshit.

I could really embarrass you here and get game specific over the years, but let’s just leave it at a bettor betting $100 on the Alabama regular season moneyline for every game in the 2017-2018 season got down 8 bets and lost about $30 that season.

You lying asshole.

[peacebyinches]

As for the OP's original question, I think most people who try to make a run at handicapping for a living keep it much simpler than you are envisioning (then again most people are not successful gamblers)... Like adding and multiplying statistics in excel kind of deal. I'm not sure if that's the way to go but it might be useful to start simple? I honestly don't know, since personally I have grand dreams of implementing an amazingly intricate dynamic multivariate machine learning algorithm using Bayesian inference in MATLAB (maybe python), but then I remember how much work that would be and just bet based off of dumbass intuitions like the crap BigDaddy is spouting.

[BigdaddyQH]

BigDaddy get out of the think tank.

It's probably best you just don't respond to any of us in here. You are lying about bets you made and "won," it's already shown.

Your integrity is shot so take your battle to some other part of the Forum if you really want to continue to get buried.

Maybe someone will read your nonsense and pile onto you but because you just make stuff up, and claim bets that can't be made,and then wins that could have been made, far after the games are over.

Go bet with your positive cash flow sharp guys bookie, tell them your stories.

Alfa is right, it's just a waste of time with you. I've wasted enough already.

Get out of the think tank, you're no sports bettor. You're just the guy that makes things up.

You do not tell me what to do. Keep mouthing off and I will put you "In the tank", permanently. You are going to lose your arse to me and I am going to hold you to it. Fail to honor the wager and you will learn a VERY painful lesson.

[BigdaddyQH]

As for the OP's original question, I think most people who try to make a run at handicapping for a living keep it much simpler than you are envisioning (then again most people are not successful gamblers)... Like adding and multiplying statistics in excel kind of deal. I'm not sure if that's the way to go but it might be useful to start simple? I honestly don't know, since personally I have grand dreams of implementing an amazingly intricate dynamic multivariate machine learning algorithm using Bayesian inference in MATLAB (maybe python), but then I remember how much work that would be and just bet based off of dumbass intuitions like the crap BigDaddy is spouting.

You want some too, you dumb s**t? Bring it on. You guys will never see the money that I have. Never in your dull boring lying lives. You gentlemen are nothing more than peons trying to impress people with your knowledge of higher mathematics. If you idiots are so smart, how come none of you have enough money to wager with me? You guys are the laughing stock of football sites. Don't you fools ever get tired of people trampling all over you?

[semibluff]

Get'um Shirley!

[peacebyinches]

You want some too, you dumb s**t? Bring it on. You guys will never see the money that I have. Never in your dull boring lying lives. You gentlemen are nothing more than peons trying to impress people with your knowledge of higher mathematics. If you idiots are so smart, how come none of you have enough money to wager with me? You guys are the laughing stock of football sites. Don't you fools ever get tired of people trampling all over you?

I can't tell if this is a cry for help or if you're actually that desperate for attention? either way, try and get some rest big guy...