NBA CLV Beaters: How much do you beat the line on average?

[Spankyf]

Hi

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere. I'm small time but successful at rugby union betting. I have been beating the closing line across that market for a few years ~65% of the time and by about 0.7 points per game (so betting earlier and getting better numbers). So doing well.

Been paper tracking NBA spreads and while not doing as well, my sample size is just this season.

I reckon i'll need to beat the line by about 0.5 pts to yield 2-2.5% long term, which given the volume i'd be placing i'd be happy with and I don't see it as unrealistic.

Are there any other NBA bettors who can share their own metrics like this and any insights into yield vs avg discount to closing line.

[turbobets]

Whose closing line?

[Spankyf]

Whose closing line?

I mean beating the consensus line vs the line you took earlier.

An example: https://www.oddsportal.com/basketbal.../#ah;1;11.50;0

I bet Pistons +11.5 at approx 10am EST. The closing line at tip-off was +11. So i'd count that as having beat it by 0.5 points.

Not looking to split hairs on the odds though I know that matters over time. Only interested in yield vs average beating the consensus line.

[Waterstpub87]

Consensus is fine. More people would tend to use Pinnacle sports close. Longer term, that would be more accurate as they have tended to have the most accurate bookmaking.

This season, I am beating spreads by .66 as compared to pinnacle close, totals by ~.75. Up 10 units in Spreads, down 9.85 in totals over 168 bets of each type.

One thing to keep in mind, your results will be very volatile. You can beat the spread, but will experience losing days/weeks/months/seasons. Keep heart, and know that you will win long term if you are getting the best of it.

[Spankyf]

Consensus is fine. More people would tend to use Pinnacle sports close. Longer term, that would be more accurate as they have tended to have the most accurate bookmaking.

This season, I am beating spreads by .66 as compared to pinnacle close, totals by ~.75. Up 10 units in Spreads, down 9.85 in totals over 168 bets of each type.

One thing to keep in mind, your results will be very volatile. You can beat the spread, but will experience losing days/weeks/months/seasons. Keep heart, and know that you will win long term if you are getting the best of it.

Thank you very much, exactly what I wanted to know points wise. I do track Pinnacle as well but used consensus for simplifying my question. Congrats on the spread discount you get, that is a lot long term.

So beating spreads on Pinnacle by approx ~0.5-0.6 per game over many seasons, you're in profit right?

We can get the best of it by that much per game long term but with say an $0.12 vig on Pinnacle spread markets does that yield you a profit say north of 2%? Hope you don't mind me asking.

Edit: by $0.12 vig on Pinnacle I mean $0.06 either way, 1.94 decimal odds each side roughly

[Waterstpub87]

Thank you very much, exactly what I wanted to know points wise. I do track Pinnacle as well but used consensus for simplifying my question. Congrats on the spread discount you get, that is a lot long term.

So beating spreads on Pinnacle by approx ~0.5-0.6 per game over many seasons, you're in profit right?

We can get the best of it by that much per game long term but with say an $0.12 vig on Pinnacle spread markets does that yield you a profit say north of 2%? Hope you don't mind me asking.

Edit: by $0.12 vig on Pinnacle I mean $0.06 either way, 1.94 decimal odds each side roughly

Didn't bet 2020 season, wasn't feeling it at the time. 2019 was ok prior to covid break, didnt pick up after it. 2018 was very good, but lost a lot on props, so it balanced out to be even.

Taking more seriously this year, should end up.

It depends which point you beat. 5.5 to 6 on the point calculate would be 10.6 cents. So vig free, you would have a 52.5% win rate being paid at 52.38, for .12%. So add another 2 cents for the 60%, 52.96, for a .52% advantage. I think this was closer.

Someone a little bit sharper can check that math hopefully.

[Spankyf]

Thanks again for the insight. Yes I have to map the percentage by spread to get exact number but you've confirmed I was thinking in the right way. Really appreciate the response.

Good luck and may the variance gods be with you

[Waterstpub87]

I think I fixed my math. The calculators are not as much my strong point.

[turbobets]

Make sure you have a breakeven arb or better on the side you bet versus pinnacle and you'll be fine.

[juicername]

Consensus is fine. More people would tend to use Pinnacle sports close. Longer term, that would be more accurate as they have tended to have the most accurate bookmaking.

This season, I am beating spreads by .66 as compared to pinnacle close, totals by ~.75. Up 10 units in Spreads, down 9.85 in totals over 168 bets of each type.

One thing to keep in mind, your results will be very volatile. You can beat the spread, but will experience losing days/weeks/months/seasons. Keep heart, and know that you will win long term if you are getting the best of it.

Would you agree that beating the closing line does not mean as much any more due to all the uncertainties with covid protocols etc? It seems the the market get things wrong more often nowadays. I have no actual stats to back it up though, just my feeling and many bettors I've talked to say the same thing.

[Waterstpub87]

No, I do not agree with that.

People say this every year. Prior to covid, they would say it every year. It is caused by confirmation bias.

The logic behind beating the closing line is somewhat a wisdom of the crowds. You can make arguments that only sharps move the line. Never worked for a book, so I can't confirm it either way.

I've tested in the past by pulling lines and filtering for only games where the open would have beaten the vig free close. If you bet that side, you would have made a lot of money. Just because things are slightly more volatile due to late injuries, I don't see why this would change. In fact, it shouldn't because the last scratches effect the closing line more. It may be more difficult to beat closing line, but beating it still remains profitable.

I would still assume this to be true until I see evidence that it isn't. When it becomes untrue, most lines won't move.

[juicername]

No, I do not agree with that.

People say this every year. Prior to covid, they would say it every year. It is caused by confirmation bias.

The logic behind beating the closing line is somewhat a wisdom of the crowds. You can make arguments that only sharps move the line. Never worked for a book, so I can't confirm it either way.

I've tested in the past by pulling lines and filtering for only games where the open would have beaten the vig free close. If you bet that side, you would have made a lot of money. Just because things are slightly more volatile due to late injuries, I don't see why this would change. In fact, it shouldn't because the last scratches effect the closing line more. It may be more difficult to beat closing line, but beating it still remains profitable.

I would still assume this to be true until I see evidence that it isn't. When it becomes untrue, most lines won't move.

Fair enough. Very well could be confirmation bias from my (and other parties) side as like I said, I have no actual big sample data other than anecdotal. Appreciate the reply.

[juicername]

Fair enough. Very well could be confirmation bias from my (and other parties) side as like I said, I have no actual big sample data other than anecdotal. Appreciate the reply.

As a sidenote, as far as I've gone with my documentation for "sharp betting" is documenting the sharp lines of say 30% or more from the Action Network data. Pretty much 50%. Fading the public favorite in primetime games (NFL) does seem to be a thing though, if one team gets like 70% of money and bets (per their data) it's an automatic fade (again by the kind of small sample I have, but I agree with that theory tbh).

[Waterstpub87]

How do they determine that data? What constitutes "sharp money" for action network.

[juicername]

How do they determine that data? What constitutes "sharp money" for action network.

Basically something like 30% bets (tickets) and 70% money would equal 40% sharp money. How they get the data I don't know though, so yeah, sketchy at best.

I more or less tracked anything above 30% "sharp money" according to to the explanation above, and no edge. 50/50. A bit of a sidetrack from the original conversation so apologies.

[Waterstpub87]

I'm a little skeptical with that formula. It's big assumption that big bets = sharps.

Much of the places get that bet information reported for the sportsbooks. You don't know data quality, where it's from ect., unless they tell you.

I get skeptical because some places have hockey games that supposedly are 100% bet one way, where I had the opposite side. So unless I am the only one betting the Sabres, that data is obviously wrong.