Is CLV a Farce?

**Waterstpub87** · 08-14-22, 11:17 PM

This is a great post coolguy, honestly.

I think with your second paragraph, you have a key misunderstanding. The line value is gone once it moves. The value was on -5.5. It may no longer be there at -7.5. The people who got -5.5 made a great bet. The people who get at -6 got a good bet. The people at -6.5 a decent bet. I assuming NBA here, so the people who got -7 got an ok bet. The -7 bettor does not get value that the opener was -5.5, only that they got -7 and it closed at -7.5.

It depends which sport. Out of whats going on now, I bet MLB Sides and Total, KBO, Japenese baseball, WNBA and Golf. Out of those, Baseball sides are probably efficient, guided by line movement. Less so the totals. With the others, the lines tend not to move at all. I've won 4 or so Japanese baseball seasons in a row. I could have been lucky, or I am just better than the market at this sport. In WNBA, had a great season, also destroyed closing lines.

If you scrap the historical odds, and look at it, if you got the right side that moved very far, you'll make lots of money. It has to count for something. Is it impossible to profit if you don't beat the closing line. Not sure of that, depends which sport. In MLB sides, I've broke even against CLV ( like maybe something like -.00001 hold or something), but won years in a row on MLB sides. Major money, no, but more than I should if everything was 100% efficient. I believe the sports market, on major sports, is pretty efficient, but not totally.

I disagree with the "famous sharp" guy. I think people get the term modeling confusing. In my mind, modeling means predicting a line and betting when the market is off of that line. If that was no good, the lines wouldn't move, and there would be no CLV. Consider that the odds on the craps table stays the same no matter how many people bet the pass line. If sports were so efficient that modeling was not possible, why would the lines move?

Do some people figure out ways to predict line movement, and bet off of that, instead of handicapping a game. Sure, plenty. That guy may be one of them. Others find better sportsbook, and use their lines as what the prediction is, betting only when weaker sportsbooks have lines that differ significantly.

In the end, it doesn't matter. Figure out a way to win. You should tend to beat the closing line if you are betting major sports. You can debate the questions, but in the end, this debate doesn't help you win. Spend your energy focusing on this. The CLV will worry about itself.

**coolguy73739** · 08-14-22, 11:28 PM

Thanks. Highly impressed with your last Paragraph. Yes, I'm trying to win, that's all it matters to me these days.

**coolguy73739** · 08-14-22, 11:46 PM

If I bet -5.5 on a team , I don't care whether that closes at -7.5 or -4.5, All I care is my team should win by at least 6 points and I have to find ways/methods/systems to ensure they have high chances to win by that margin, I don't care if I beat Closing line.
Line closes at -7.5, team wins by 4, I get nothing but only a consolation prize that I beat Closing line?? That's BS.
I am more worried about winning rather than losing my hard earned money.
My average bet size is about 1k.
They say KEEP BTCL LONG TERM AND YOU WILL BE THE WINNER.
The term LONG TERM is exaggerated here.
What's the long term? With a 1k bet, I will be broke after around 50 bets, there's no money to bet anymore but only a tag, I BEAT CLOSING LINE..lol
Every loss makes you stressed, poorer and you lose your self confidence of winning so how can BTCL keep you going? We are humans and not machines..
I can't buy BTCL.

**Waterstpub87** · 08-15-22, 09:05 AM

You cannot think of it in terms of 1 bet or 50 bets.

The question is "was this bet I made a good bet". If you beat the closing line by a significant margin, it was a good bet.

If you make good bets, you'll win long term.

You are betting too much on a single play if you'll go broke after 50 bets. 2% is too large, and in your example, if you stay at that level after loses, you'll be betting 10+% at one point.

It's much easier to win if you bet a smaller amount on plays. The stress level is lower, which would help to reduce mental mistakes. As well, you can't bet if you're broke.

**Roscoe_Word** · 08-19-22, 03:47 PM

I'd rather go 3-0 ATS and have negative CLV than:

goin 0-3, but beatin the CL each time.

I've never seen a chart that shows a ratio of say 1000 plays (ATS vs CLV).

One would probably have to use a closing consensus line to establish such a chart.

**gauchojake** · 08-19-22, 04:22 PM

Beating the closer and getting the best price are all indicators of a sharp bettor and a winner over the long term, but to your point, it doesn't guarantee you won't go broke betting great numbers. Sometimes the market goes a certain direction and you can identify the right side by studying the line movement. Is it wrong to bet the side that the market clearly likes even if you are paying a premium? I'm with you, I'd rather win even if I don't get the best number or beat the closer.

**WireWire** · 08-19-22, 09:03 PM

Money management and beating CLV are 2 factors you will find in every long-term winner, small sample size means nothing you could get 6% CLV on a bet and it lose on the other hand you could get -6% CLV on another bet and it win, long term you want to be beating the CLV.

**turbobets** · 08-19-22, 11:21 PM

Full Article I think this was published in 2020

LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE OPENING POINT SPREAD

Correctly predicting the direction the line will move and betting the opener will result in a winning record against the spread.

NFL 53.03%
NCAA Football 53.71%
NBA 53.54%
NCAA Basketball 53.75%

LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD

By the time many gamblers place their wagers much of the value has been bet out of the line. Using line movement as the only predictor and betting the closing line will result in a losing record against the spread.
NFL 48.78%
NCAA Football 49.26%
NBA 49.86%
NCAA Basketball 49.39%

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-20-22, 02:50 PM

coolguy...is that YOU in the avatar?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-20-22, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by turbobets

Full Article I think this was published in 2020

LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE OPENING POINT SPREAD

Correctly predicting the direction the line will move and betting the opener will result in a winning record against the spread.

NFL 53.03%
NCAA Football 53.71%
NBA 53.54%
NCAA Basketball 53.75%

LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD

By the time many gamblers place their wagers much of the value has been bet out of the line. Using line movement as the only predictor and betting the closing line will result in a losing record against the spread.
NFL 48.78%
NCAA Football 49.26%
NBA 49.86%
NCAA Basketball 49.39%

This is an outstanding post. Lays it out in black-and-white:

*If you can spot a questionable # and correctly anticipate the move, that's a good angle. It's just math, think about getting one extra point on your ticket when the late line is close to 50/50.

*AFTER the move, value has been sucked out. Now < 50/50. But people will bet it anyway and tell themselves that they're on the "value side."

Margin for error is very small, boys. Market lines are MOSTLY sharp.

**coolguy73739** · 08-21-22, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

coolguy...is that YOU in the avatar?

No.. thats not me..

**semibluff** · 08-21-22, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by turbobets

Full Article I think this was published in 2020

LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE OPENING POINT SPREAD

Correctly predicting the direction the line will move and betting the opener will result in a winning record against the spread.

NFL 53.03%
NCAA Football 53.71%
NBA 53.54%
NCAA Basketball 53.75%

LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD

By the time many gamblers place their wagers much of the value has been bet out of the line. Using line movement as the only predictor and betting the closing line will result in a losing record against the spread.
NFL 48.78%
NCAA Football 49.26%
NBA 49.86%
NCAA Basketball 49.39%

This is not directed at you personally as you are passing on information, but the NFL information posted here doesn't mesh with what i've monitored over the last 7 seasons. Picking against the Tuesday NFL spread line on either Thursday or Sunday hasn't had a 52% hit rate in any season. The results from 2021 were so extreme as to put all the combined 7 years of analysis into negative territory.

**70'sMan** · 08-22-22, 10:48 AM

It is a false causality. Many years ago Pinnacle did a study analyzing their winning players. In all cases their winning players showed + CLV. Thus became the idea that + CLV = winning player. Clearly achieving CLV is important. However there was no corresponding study conducted to show that all players who achieved + CLV were in fact winning players. Hence there is no guarantee that simply achieving + CLV will equal a long term winner.

**coolguy73739** · 08-22-22, 07:41 PM

If CLV is legit then Line movement is Legit too and that's what it boils down to and that's what Betting industry wants you believe and accept as a BENCHMARK for your win/loss record. This is far from the reality imho on some sports at least, in particular, Basketball.
I bet -5 and line closes at -7. Hooray!! I am winner??.. What a joke!.. How that actions makes you a winner when the Game has not even started yet? Books want you believe that Line movement is Legit and there's big action on Fav for line to move from -5 to -7. This might be true in some matches but can't be the case in all the games.
Who decides that number -7 is the right number? Public Perception? Sharp money? Nah.. Instead of feeling good about BTCL, I would rather satisfy/convince myself how that number -7 is arrived at and how good are my chances of winning when I am betting my hard earned money on that number.
Books cannot be so transparent about their Business, thats not how they make Billions. They take POSITIONS on so many games everyday and manipulate Line movement is all I can say in short.
As long as there's MANIPULATION of line movement, CLV is a total Farce.. Period..

**d2bets** · 08-22-22, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

If CLV is legit then Line movement is Legit too and that's what it boils down to and that's what Betting industry wants you believe and accept as a BENCHMARK for your win/loss record. This is far from the reality imho on some sports at least, in particular, Basketball.
I bet -5 and line closes at -7. Hooray!! I am winner??.. What a joke!.. How that actions makes you a winner when the Game has not even started yet? Books want you believe that Line movement is Legit and there's big action on Fav for line to move from -5 to -7. This might be true in some matches but can't be the case in all the games.
Who decides that number -7 is the right number? Public Perception? Sharp money? Nah.. Instead of feeling good about BTCL, I would rather satisfy/convince myself how that number -7 is arrived at and how good are my chances of winning when I am betting my hard earned money on that number.
Books cannot be so transparent about their Business, thats not how they make Billions. They take POSITIONS on so many games everyday and manipulate Line movement is all I can say in short.
As long as there's MANIPULATION of line movement, CLV is a total Farce.. Period..

If you have an NBA line at +7-110, that means that you could bet +5 alternate at about +130, maybe better. So yeah, -5 is good. In fact, it's already profit if you want to cash it in. If the -5 isn't +EV then that means the +7 is. One or both of them has to be. But if you have -6 and the line remains -6, it's possible for neither side to be +EV.

These are facts.

I've made a lot of money over many many years and tens or maybe hundreds of thousands of plays. I don't model and I don't guess. I watch numbers and I get CLV. It may not be the only way to win, but it's certainly one way.

**turbobets** · 08-22-22, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

Picking against the Tuesday NFL spread line

Maybe this is why your getting something different?

**WireWire** · 08-22-22, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

If you have an NBA line at +7-110, that means that you could bet +5 alternate at about +130, maybe better. So yeah, -5 is good. In fact, it's already profit if you want to cash it in. If the -5 isn't +EV then that means the +7 is. One or both of them has to be. But if you have -6 and the line remains -6, it's possible for neither side to be +EV.
These are facts.

I've made a lot of money over many many years and tens or maybe hundreds of thousands of plays. I don't model and I don't guess. I watch numbers and I get CLV. It may not be the only way to win, but it's certainly one way.

Exactly CLV matters over a bigger sample size of bets, if you're not beating the Closing line in over 1,000+ bets you 10000000000000000000000000000% are in the red that's not debatable, so ya, it matters ALOT.

**TommieGunshot** · 08-22-22, 11:33 PM

If closing line value is a path toward earning money, then cool. Get closing line value and earn money.

If closing line value is a farce, then a better who gets closing line value can just bet the other side right before kickoff and earn a profit.

Whether it is a farce or not, it is definitely a way to earn money. That's all I care about.

**coolguy73739** · 08-25-22, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

If you have an NBA line at +7-110, that means that you could bet +5 alternate at about +130, maybe better. So yeah, -5 is good. In fact, it's already profit if you want to cash it in. If the -5 isn't +EV then that means the +7 is. One or both of them has to be. But if you have -6 and the line remains -6, it's possible for neither side to be +EV.

These are facts.

I've made a lot of money over many many years and tens or maybe hundreds of thousands of plays. I don't model and I don't guess. I watch numbers and I get CLV. It may not be the only way to win, but it's certainly one way.

If you don't mind me asking, How many hours of day do you monitor Line movement, DB screen or similar and what sort of income do you generate in terms of ROI? I still believe a SHARP Line is a SHARP Line and no matter which direction it moves (in favor or opposite of your bet), you can never win betting that SHARP Line long term.

**d2bets** · 08-25-22, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

If you don't mind me asking, How many hours of day do you monitor Line movement, DB screen or similar and what sort of income do you generate in terms of ROI? I still believe a SHARP Line is a SHARP Line and no matter which direction it moves (in favor or opposite of your bet), you can never win betting that SHARP Line long term.

I don't have the time to do mot of that anymore, but I may start in a targeted fashion. Las couple years I've focused more on live/half.

The idea that you can never win when a line moves is insane. Again, look at my example. -5 steams to close -7. Either -5 is +EV or the closer +7 is +EV. One or the other. Irrefutable.

**coolguy73739** · 08-25-22, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I don't have the time to do mot of that anymore, but I may start in a targeted fashion. Las couple years I've focused more on live/half.

The idea that you can never win when a line moves is insane. Again, look at my example. -5 steams to close -7. Either -5 is +EV or the closer +7 is +EV. One or the other. Irrefutable.

One team always wins.. No big Deal.. Every coin has two sides and so are two EV for every closing line, one +EV and -EV. You are stating the obvious. What you call an EV to a sharp line is A RANDOM OCCURANCE in my opinion. I never said you can't win a moving line, you will but you can't win long term on a moving line of a SHARP NUMBER.
What majority of bettors don't realize is SHARP NUMBER is hard to beat in the long run 'cause its a SHARP, its as simple as that. Its similar to A COIN TOSS RESULT COMPETITION where you can never win irrespective of whatever sharp skill you have in predicting results.