Wong Teasers and Pre-NFL

[Cheme82]

Thanks, Bill. I'm actually focusing on -3.5 faves essentially teased to +3.5 dogs.

That's 7 points bro, and those are -120 for the 2-teamer, you have to hit each leg around 74% just to break even.

[HedgeHog]

That's 7 points bro, and those are -120 for the 2-teamer.

No, I'm actually only buying 6 points for -105 and ties win. 3.5 favorites are usually listed as only -3 when teasing (5-Dimes does this all the time).

[Cheme82]

Oh got you, so you get the -3.5 favorite but since they make them -3 with the teaser you get +3 but you spend the extra 5 cents and it's practically like getting +3.5.

Sounds good but you'll have to take a look at the numbers to see if it's profitable. Going through all those shitty numbers (2,1,0) probably wipes off all the edge that you get by going through both 3's though.

[HedgeHog]

Exactly, Cheme82. But I think getting both 3's offsets the lousy numbers. The question I need to answer is how often do 3.5 faves win outright or lose by 3 or less.

[Bill the cop]

Thanks, Bill. I'm actually focusing on -3.5 faves essentially teased to +3.5 dogs.

Okay, here ya go. Fav-3.5 to +3.5, 93-35-0 for 72.7%. 6Pt tease at -105 needs 71.6% to BE. Just a suggestion, this type of play is better during regular season. Nflx has such a strong dog bias that it's really hard to overcome it with any kind of Fav bets. Historical data aside, if you've got a strong conviction on the play, hey, go for it

[HedgeHog]

Good stats and even better advice, Bill.

[Bill the cop]

Thanks for those SBR points, although I have no idea what they are used for (I'm pretty new here). I'll get with Daringly and ask him what the deal is

[Shelton]

Good luck i dont like pre season

[tim0402]

i teased saints +7.5 to giants +7.5

[HedgeHog]

Thanks for those SBR points, although I have no idea what they are used for (I'm pretty new here). I'll get with Daringly and ask him what the deal is

You're very welcome and thank you for your insights. As far as SBR points are concerned, click on SBR Store at the top of this page. Points can be used for free plays or cash at various sponsor Books--or merchandise if you prefer. The 10 points I gave you won't go far, but I wanted to show my appreciation.

[wrongturn]

HedgeHog, 5D specifically says 2-team teaser tie-win is push, tie-loss can be either push or loss, depending what customer asks for. I know the chart saying tie-wins, but it might only applies to basketball. I don't know for sure though.

[PRC]

these teasers got worked last night

[HedgeHog]

HedgeHog, 5D specifically says 2-team teaser tie-win is push, tie-loss can be either push or loss, depending what customer asks for. I know the chart saying tie-wins, but it might only applies to basketball. I don't know for sure though.

That is true. But on 2 team 6-pt teasers you have the option to chose "ties revert" for even money (in which case the rule you stated applies) or "ties win" at -105. Obviously the extra 5 cent vig is worth it on key numbers.

[FreeFall]

I feel like 5Dimes hangs offmarket 2.5's instead of 3's just to trick us into wonging them.

[IrishTim]

I feel like 5Dimes hangs offmarket 2.5's instead of 3's just to trick us into wonging them.

If you notice, their reduced numbers are almost always with the market but their regular ones (the teasable ones) are almost always 0.5 to 1.5 points off with adjusted payout odds. Their teaser defense rivals Pinny.

[FreeFall]

If you notice, their reduced numbers are almost always with the market but their regular ones (the teasable ones) are almost always 0.5 to 1.5 points off with adjusted payout odds. Their teaser defense rivals Pinny.

I may be missing something, but you can tease their opening lines. They don't change the numbers you get the numbers you see on sbrlines.com

[IrishTim]

I may be missing something, but you can tease their opening lines. They don't change the numbers you get the numbers you see on sbrlines.com

My mistake for not being clear. 5Dimes has two sets of lines, their regular lines - the ones you can tease - and their reduced lines. SBRodds uses their reduced lines I believe. Sports Options has two columns, 5Dimes and 5DimRJ. Right now, 5Dimes is offering NY Giants +2.5 (+115) on their regular line set and Giants +3 (+100) on their reduced.

For teasers, they give you the regular lines. Go to 5Dimes right now and try to tease the Giants 6 points. You're only offered +8.5, correct? That's because they take their teasers from their normal lines (the +2.5), not the reduced (the 3). You'll sometimes see as much as a 1 point difference between their reduced lines and normal lines, with adjusted payout odds obviously.

[HedgeHog]

To add to Tim's point, look at the Jacksonville game for Saturday. Jags are basically -2 everywhere, except they're currently P-127 at 5D---which kills any Wong possibilty.

[FreeFall]

My mistake for not being clear. 5Dimes has two sets of lines, their regular lines - the ones you can tease - and their reduced lines. SBRodds uses their reduced lines I believe. Sports Options has two columns, 5Dimes and 5DimRJ. Right now, 5Dimes is offering NY Giants +2.5 (+115) on their regular line set and Giants +3 (+100) on their reduced. For teasers, they give you the regular lines. Go to 5Dimes right now and try to tease the Giants 6 points. You're only offered +8.5, correct? That's because they take their teasers from their normal lines (the +2.5), not the reduced (the 3). You'll sometimes see as much as a 1 point difference between their reduced lines and normal lines, with adjusted payout odds obviously.

unless I'm mistaken that is okay. The 3 is an off number from the market number to get more action from the smaller bettors. In wongs we want +1.5-+2.5 making it okay to tease that number. Correct?

[wrongturn]

unless I'm mistaken that is okay. The 3 is an off number from the market number to get more action from the smaller bettors. In wongs we want +1.5-+2.5 making it okay to tease that number. Correct?

If 3 is off number, you are correct, But if 3 is market number and 2.5 is off number, as in the case of Giant vs Jet game, then you are screwed, right?

[FreeFall]

If 3 is off number, you are correct, But if 3 is market number and 2.5 is off number, as in the case of Giant vs Jet game, then you are screwed, right?

I believe so. If you look at the 5Dimes lines for this week none of the +2.5s are -110 they are all off numbers which have "less of a change" of hitting than 50%. This ruins the Wong portion, so it appears they have a slick setup to tease you into teasing them.

[Bill the cop]

I believe so. If you look at the 5Dimes lines for this week none of the +2.5s are -110 they are all off numbers which have "less of a change" of hitting than 50%. This ruins the Wong portion, so it appears they have a slick setup to tease you into teasing them.

Here's what actually happened with teasers thru week 3 NFLX this year:

RD 1.5 to 2.5, 7-3-0
HD 1.5 to 2.5, 3-0-0

total all BS teasers, 10-3-0 for 76.9% (too few candidates)

But, if you included the dogs 1 to 3 things change (many more candidates)
RD 1 to 3, 20-6-0
HD 1 to 3, 6-0-0

total all +1 to +3 teased up 6 pts, 26-6-0 for 81.3%

Note, if all you did was tease just those +3s to +9 you went 14-2-0 for 87.5%

Yes, the books are reducing the traditional BS teaser candidates by staying with the 1s and 3s and playing games with the vig, but so what!

There was only 1 HF -7.5 (NE) and it lost outright, also, the RD 4.5 to 6 only went 2-3-0.

[IrishTim]

Thanks for the information Bill, that matches up with my records. The only other game I teased was Pittsburgh -6.5 when the no-vig market win rate was > 73%.

On another note, how come your PMs are disabled?

[sharpcat]

I just ran through this real quickly the other day so anybody please correct me if I am wrong, using push frequencies in the NFL I came up with this chart to break down what has more value 5D's "ties win -105" or the "ties push +100".

Estimated ties push odds at +100 as compared to a ties win bet at -105:
1= -105.13
2= -104.04
3= -121.70
4= -106.16
5= -103.42
6= -107.04
7= -112.13
8= -104.37
9= -101.82
10= -110.33
11= -104.54
12= -100.88
13= -102.63
14= -110.30
15= -102.96
16= -107.21
17= -109.53
18= -104.77
19= +100

This is only for 2 team teasers. If one team lands on a whole number these are the odds I would estimate for a 2 team parlay ties push (+100) as compared to a 2 team ties win (-105).

If both teams land on whole numbers you would add both lines together and subtract 100 (ex. 2 lines landing on +8 would = {104.37+104.37}-100=108.74) so you would be better off taking the -105 ties win line here, but if one number landed on a fractional number and the other landed on the 8 you would be getting slightly better odds by taking the ties push option at +100 which would be -104.37 compared to the ties win option at -105.

The numbers are based off of the push probabilities listed in the half point calculator and therefore may not reflect the true up to date push probabilities.

I am pretty sure these calculations are accurate but if somebody finds any errors please feel free to correct me.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Thanks for the information Bill, that matches up with my records. The only other game I teased was Pittsburgh -6.5 when the no-vig market win rate was > 73%. On another note, how come your PMs are disabled?

there was a Jets -6 game that got over 71% on no vig pinny line as well

[dogman]

Bill, have you been playing the teasers on gameday or when the lines first come out for the games?

[Bill the cop]

Bill, have you been playing the teasers on gameday or when the lines first come out for the games?

Dogman, as a general rule, if I'm going to tease a Fav. (e.g., HF-8 down) I do it early in the week when the lines come out. Usually I wait until game day to tease the dogs. Public money tends to come in on the Fav during the week and may price your Fav teaser candidate out of range if you wait. Conversely, a game may open at +1 and gain some teaser value later in the week before game time.

Here's an example this week. I've already teased Tenn from -7 to -1 as the first leg on many 4 teamers at +300 (the rest of the games are regular season). I'm going to buy back N.O. on the money line just before game time, hoping to get around +300. What I'll wind up with (If Tenn covers) is numerous 3 team teasers at about +190 or better. If N.O. wins, oh well, BE on the plays.

[Bill the cop]

On another note, how come your PMs are disabled?[/quote]


Tim, I have no idea. I'm pretty new here and didn't set up a PM process and don't really know how to. I certainly didn't do anything to disable it (that I know of). I also post over at sportsforumworld and get PMs all the time over there.

[durito]

You have to 25 or 50 posts to get PM's

[shipsn2010]

wong teasers

Being new to the wong teasers, I have a question: it says to bet favorites that are -9 to -7 and bet dogs that are +1 t o +2.5, and road dog s +4.5 to +6 and home dogs +1 to +10 and dogs +1 to+ 3. there are a number of these plays this week just wondering how to detrmine what teams and how many for each teaser. thanks and good luc

[HedgeHog]

I tease thru the 3 & 7 solely for the NFL and at any time (pre, reg and post-season). As far as how to bet Wong teasers, it is more of a personal thing and depends on the odds you can get for 2 (i.e. even money) and 3 team teasers (i.e. +180). One strategy is to do a round robin on all eligible plays. I'm sure others have their own methods.

[shipsn2010]

wong teasers

Thanks hedge.

[Peeig]

Bump this as Week 1 Wongz r quiklee aprowchin'

[trixtrix]

Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
wake me up when September ends