Moneyline to Runline conversion

[Phil T. Sanchez]

Hey guys-

I am wondering if anybody has any good info on converting moneylines into runlines (accounting for game total obviously). I seem to struggle in these areas and cant even think of where to begin. I suppose looking at past data is a good place to start, but even then I cant seem to find solid past data (RL/ML/TOTAL) anywhere.

tyia

[donjuan]

Try Goldsheet for historical lines. One thing to remember is that the runline will be different depending on whether a team is home or away because a home team won't bat in the bottom of the ninth if they are up by 1.

[LT Profits]

These is no "right" answer to this because every game is unique in terms of variables, but if you want to work with VERY rough averages, move the line 90 cents if the home team is favored or 55 cents if the road team is favored. Thus a -150 home fave becomes -1.5 +140 and a -150 road fave becomes -1.5 +105.

[Saunders FTW]

These is no "right" answer to this because every game is unique in terms of variables, but if you want to work with VERY rough averages, move the line 90 cents if the home team is favored or 55 cents if the road team is favored. Thus a -150 home fave becomes -1.5 +140 and a -150 road fave becomes -1.5 +105.

interesting, very nice post LT

[dogman]

Phil, check out www.smartcapper.com. It's somewhat confusing but he shows exactly how to do it. Check under articles and you'll see it.

[Justin7]

Phil,

Just like you can convert a spread into a moneyline in most sports, there are conversion charts for baseball. They are a little more complex though - you need both a moneyline and total to determine the fair runline. You also need to account for whether the home team or road team is the runline favorite - since the game ends in the middle of the 9th when the home team is leading, home favorite runline prices are more expensive than road teams...

I don't remember exactly, but the home team wins a game by exactly 1 run about 21% of the time, and a visiting team does so by about 14% of the time. The lower the total, the more often this happens. One other technical adjustment you can make: if a team has a strong bullpen and closer, they tend to win by exactly one more often (remember Gagne at LA when he was on fire?)

You might check the lines at Pinnacle. Not

[dogman]

Justin,I have read that if the ROAD TEAM is the favorite at -120 or higher and they win the game they cover the runline 80% of the time. Does that seem about right?

[Justin7]

Off the cuff, I'd guess it is much lower. Maybe 65-70%.

[Ganchrow]

Justin,I have read that if the ROAD TEAM is the favorite at -120 or higher and they win the game they cover the runline 80% of the time. Does that seem about right?

Using covers data from 1999 through 2007 I'm seeing about 80.151% with a standard error of ±0.795%.

This covers 2,519 qualifying games (road team wins as favorite of at least -120).

[Phil T. Sanchez]

Phil, check out www.smartcapper.com. It's somewhat confusing but he shows exactly how to do it. Check under articles and you'll see it.

The only problem is dealing with big dogs/favs. he has admitted usuing his method the accuracy diminishes pretty quickly when dealing with extremes

[Phil T. Sanchez]

Phil,

Just like you can convert a spread into a moneyline in most sports, there are conversion charts for baseball. They are a little more complex though - you need both a moneyline and total to determine the fair runline. You also need to account for whether the home team or road team is the runline favorite - since the game ends in the middle of the 9th when the home team is leading, home favorite runline prices are more expensive than road teams...

I don't remember exactly, but the home team wins a game by exactly 1 run about 21% of the time, and a visiting team does so by about 14% of the time. The lower the total, the more often this happens. One other technical adjustment you can make: if a team has a strong bullpen and closer, they tend to win by exactly one more often (remember Gagne at LA when he was on fire?)

You might check the lines at Pinnacle. Not

Do you know of where one could find one of these charts?

[dogman]

Ganch, thank you for researching it.

[trixtrix]

from my db, below is the realized runline for home and away as a function of total for away favs lined at -120 or higher, count is number of sample size associated w/ each total:
======================================== =====
Total CountOfTotal HomeRLOdds AwayRLOdds

11.5 72 112 -227
11 200 -115 -257
10.5 458 -118 -255
10 581 -128 -256
9.5 922 -120 -279
9 1019 -103 -263
8.5 873 -105 -306
8 545 -106 -333
7.5 348 -106 -287
7 144 -153 -251

[dogman]

Trix, could you give me an example off your charts. If the total is 7, there were 144 games in your db. How are you coming up with the runline odds? Thank you.

[trixtrix]

realized runline = historical cover rate

home rl -153 and away rl -251 translate to cover rate percentage of 60.4% and 71.5% respectively

out of 144 samples w/ road favs lined at -120 or greater, and a betting total lined at 7, home team +1.5 have covered 60.4% of the time (87 out of 144) and away team +1.5 have covered 71.5% of the time (103 out of 144 ).

[dogman]

Trix, on the basis of your data it looks like the home team at +1 1/2 is a bad bet as most of home teams getting +1 1/2 runs are laying a higher number,in most games, than your figures indicate they should.

[staf]

Using covers data from 1999 through 2007 I'm seeing about 80.151% with a standard error of ±0.795%.

This covers 2,519 qualifying games (road team wins as favorite of at least -120).

How many road favorites of -120 or worse lose outright?

[Ganchrow]

How many road favorites of -120 or worse lose outright?

41.96%, with std. err. of 0.75%.

[dogman]

Ganch, so based on your data 58.04 RF at -120 or higher win 58.04% of the time and lose 41.96%.If 80.1% of the 58.04% of the time RF covers the -1 1/2 RL then 46.49% the RF would win by ONE run or more, am I right in assuming that based on the past results?

[Ganchrow]

Ganch, so based on your data 58.04 RF at -120 or higher win 58.04% of the time and lose 41.96%.If 80.1% of the 58.04% of the time RF covers the -1 1/2 RL then 46.49% the RF would win by ONE run or more, am I right in assuming that based on the past results?

80.15% of the time that a RF of -120 or more (actually meaning <= -120) wins, it wins by more than 1 run. This means that (on average) RFs of at least -120 would cover the -1½ run line 80.15% * 58.04% ≈ 46.52% of the time.

It's difficult to imagine, however, how broad stroke data such as this would be of much utility to the advantage bettor.