Wong Teasers and Pre-NFL

**dogman** · 08-04-10, 02:35 PM

Hedge, Bill the cop who posted a lot over at LVA about teasers recommended some non- basic strategy 6 point teasers in during preseason. They were DOGS at +1 and DOGS at +3 . He also liked the +4 1/2 to +6 but betting those straight up instead of teasing were a little more profitable. He took much grief from some over there about his teaser betting but as far from what I know he did well.

I have a personal teaser strategy I use just for Week 1 which I'll post some time later.

**d2bets** · 08-04-10, 02:36 PM

I don't know the statistical answer, but my gut would tell me NO. Teams are not playing to win and all sorts of wacky things happen. For example, instead of taking a tie and going into OT, the team will often go for the 2. This throws off key numbers. And I just don't think games are as close.

Just my guess though. I could be wrong. Plus, I doubt you see too many 7.5-9 point spreads because, again, it's preseason. So mainly you're talking about teasing up the 1.5-2.5 point lines. I wouldn't feel comfortable doing so without good evidence.

**HedgeHog** · 08-04-10, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I don't know the statistical answer, but my gut would tell me NO. Teams are not playing to win and all sorts of wacky things happen. For example, instead of taking a tie and going into OT, the team will often go for the 2. This throws off key numbers. And I just don't think games are as close.

Just my guess though. I could be wrong. Plus, I doubt you see too many 7.5-9 point spreads because, again, it's preseason. So mainly you're talking about teasing up the 1.5-2.5 point lines. I wouldn't feel comfortable doing so without good evidence.

Very good insight. As far as whether a team decides to go for 2 to avoid OT, I wouldn't care either way with +7.5 points. However, a big part of Wong, as you state, is getting the big fav line reduced to under a field goal --which is a very rare opp in preseason.

Probably the best way to approach this is with small dogs that have a quarterback duel on their hands. At least then you a team trying for all four quarters with decent talent at the helm. These could make for great teasing opps, but again it's just a theory.

**djiddish98** · 08-04-10, 05:16 PM

I would also think that preseason markets are not as efficient as regular season markets.

**donjuan** · 08-04-10, 08:56 PM

The answer is yes, they are better pre-season. Low totals more than account for any lessened efficiency of lines.

**djiddish98** · 08-05-10, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

The answer is yes, they are better pre-season. Low totals more than account for any lessened efficiency of lines.

Good point about the totals.

**curious** · 08-05-10, 11:12 AM

Hedge, you can easily run the stats yourself at www.sportsdatabase.com, go to the NFL query page and you can run queries for preseason to see how many games ended with a given margin. You can also get the spread for those games.

**HedgeHog** · 08-05-10, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by curious

Hedge, you can easily run the stats yourself at www.sportsdatabase.com, go to the NFL query page and you can run queries for preseason to see how many games ended with a given margin. You can also get the spread for those games.

TY, Curious--I will check out that site.

**d2bets** · 08-05-10, 11:52 AM

If anyone finds actual statistical support one way or another, please post.

**LT Profits** · 08-05-10, 12:04 PM

The answer is YES for dogs and no for faves. So tease the +1.5 thru +2.5 teams only.

And no I won't post actual results.

**JustinBieber** · 08-05-10, 04:44 PM

I thought books had adjusted for wong teasers now and you could no longer blindly play 2pt dogs or w/e it says in the book I can't be bothered to look just now?

**tomcowley** · 08-05-10, 05:40 PM

There's a reason why Pinnacle deals -1 -125 instead of -2.5 and why 5dimes deals dual lines for straights and teasers.

**bleedblue** · 08-05-10, 07:18 PM

Pinnacle not taking action on preseason teasers yet?

**durito** · 08-05-10, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by bleedblue

Pinnacle not taking action on preseason teasers ~~yet?~~

At all, if memory serves me correct.

**Sfritts8** · 08-06-10, 04:33 AM

They dont take action on NFL preseason teasers.

**That Foreign Guy** · 08-06-10, 07:46 AM

That's a big clue that it's +EV

**do5000** · 08-06-10, 08:25 AM

starters will take a knee at any time and guys trying to make the team will take chances to get noticed

**skrtelfan** · 08-06-10, 11:49 AM

Pretty hilarious that people still call these "Wong teasers" when Wong didn't even write that chapter in his book. Plus Wong's own site always called them "basic strategy teasers," not "Wong teasers."

**LT Profits** · 08-06-10, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

Pretty hilarious that people still call these "Wong teasers" when Wong didn't even write that chapter in his book. Plus Wong's own site always called them "basic strategy teasers," not "Wong teasers."

Mainly because it is easier to type "Wong" than "basic strategy".

**HedgeHog** · 08-06-10, 01:50 PM

So Wong is a misnomer--just be glad his name isn't Wang. The Think Tank might not be the proper place to discuss "Wang Teasers".

**dialup_king** · 08-06-10, 03:48 PM

any Tips on how to bet wong teasers without getting limits reduced?

**IrishTim** · 08-06-10, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

So Wong is a misnomer--just be glad his name isn't Wang. The Think Tank might not be the proper place to discuss "Wang Teasers".

Wong isn't his real name, though it would've been funny had he chose "Wang" instead.

**LT Profits** · 08-06-10, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by dialup_king

any Tips on how to bet wong teasers without getting limits reduced?

Don't make them the only NFL bets you make at a particular book.

Spread them across as many books as possible.

**RickySteve** · 08-07-10, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by curious

Hedge, you can easily run the stats yourself at www.sportsdatabase.com, go to the NFL query page and you can run queries for preseason to see how many games ended with a given margin. You can also get the spread for those games.

There are no preseason stats there.

**Bill the cop** · 08-07-10, 03:11 PM

#9

I check in here from time to time. So here's some NFLX data to consider. All I generally bet are teasers and parlays, but preseason there's no shame in betting them dogs, proportionally, in straight bets, parlays, and teasers.

Over the last 14 years (sample size 904) ALL Dogs went 477-391-36 for 55% ATS.

Dogs +1 to +3, ATS 195-162-26 for 54.6%, the same teased up 6 points, 284-98-1 for 74.3%

Home Dogs +1 to +10, 80-57-4 for 58.4 ATS, the same teased up 6 points 107-33-1 for 76.4%

Road Dogs +4.5 to +6 (one of my favorite subsets) 188-34-0 for 75.2%

So, tease those Dogs, Bet them ATS, and put them in parlays.

But wait!, Lets drill down to see what just Week 1 shows us.

Week 1 All Dogs ATS, 136-98-16 for 58.1%

All Dogs +6, 187-63-0 for 74.8%

All HD +6, 29-7 for 80.5%

All Dogs +1 to +3, teased up 6 points, 100-32-0 for 75.8%

There you have it, that's all the data I care to post on these preseason games (I am keeping a few subsets to myself)

**dogman** · 08-07-10, 04:05 PM

Bill, do you take the vig into consideration on whether to tease the 3, for example if the +3 is at +100 or +105.

Also nice to see you posting here since Fezz place closed it's free forum.

**HedgeHog** · 08-07-10, 04:54 PM

Great stats, Bill. Thanks.

**Bill the cop** · 08-07-10, 05:32 PM

[quote=dogman;5812133]Bill, do you take the vig into consideration on whether to tease the 3, for example if the +3 is at +100 or +105.

I go ahead and tease those +3 dogs up regardless of the vig line. The "9" is a dead number (+3 dogs teased up 6 points, 203-70-1 for 74.4%). The books are paranoid about getting middled by coming off the 3 as well as their worry about exposing themselves to the "basic strategy" teasers. So they'll pretty much stay on the 9 or 1 or 3 and adjust the vig. BTW, there have only been 5 NFLX games over the last 14 years with lines of 8 or more, so there isn't much concern about teasing those B.S. Favs down anyway.

All dogs +3 ATS, 142-106-26 for 57.3% (push ATS 9.5%). Much of the teaser value is derived from that impressive ATS percentage, which is why I advocate the 3 tier betting model (straight, tease, and parlay). I RR the teasers in 3 teamers at +180 (mitigates the variance), that 74.4% cover rate translates to an EV of +15.3%.

I have no idea if these stats will continue in the future, (or even this year) but I'll ride this horse until I'm bucked off

GL to all

**arwar** · 08-07-10, 09:29 PM

he chose stanford for his school and wong to add a asian flavor of superior math skills. i think his name is ferguson.

**skrtelfan** · 08-08-10, 04:25 AM

His name is John Ferguson and he wears a white Gilligan hat. Other than perhaps Anthony Curtis (Kurt Flowers) or Jean Scott (Merla McCormick) he's responsible for burning out more plays than anyone and I suppose it's fitting that his most well known "legacy" involves something he didn't even write. Did anyone check his tout site's record recently? They're barely squeaking above 50%.

**Bill the cop** · 08-08-10, 08:39 AM

Actually, he no longer owns SSB. He sold it to Edward (RAS) around June 4, 2010 for something like $5,000. It had been going down hill for a number of years, maybe Edward can do something with it!

**dogman** · 08-08-10, 10:18 AM

SSB really did go downhill fast. I think it started when they started to charge for picks. Before that they were great.

**skrtelfan** · 08-08-10, 11:52 AM

I thought SSB always charged for picks since the opening of the site. My recollection is that once he split off the sports betting site from BJ21.com he started a pay service where you could pay for picks, and there was a free board too. The picks did well for a few years and then absolutely tanked.

**dogman** · 08-08-10, 12:09 PM

You may be right, just turned 50 so my memory isn't what it used to be.