Hardest and easiest sports to analyze

**Wrecktangle** · 10-27-11, 11:04 PM

Hardest: NFL sides
Easiest: WNBA sides & CFB totals

Most important stat in football MODELING is NOT turnovers as they are generally random events (fumbles more so than intercepts). They contribute to your model's entropy, and are generally not useful as a forecasting stat.

**Formulawiz** · 10-28-11, 07:46 AM

I find by far that baseball is the easiest sport to beat them in.

**mathdotcom** · 10-28-11, 09:52 AM

Hockey

Good luck

**Bsims** · 10-28-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Most important stat in football MODELING is NOT turnovers as they are generally random events (fumbles more so than intercepts). They contribute to your model's entropy, and are generally not useful as a forecasting stat.

I think we are in agreement here except saying it slightly differently. Actually my first sports statistical effort was in the 1970's when I did multiple linear regression on NFL game statistics. That's when I found turnovers were the most significant factors.

I also agree that they are random events, and hence not predictable.

I am curious as to your listing of the WNBA as one of the easiest. If I might ask, are you looking at team statistics or individual players stats? Also, wouldn't this then also apply to the NBA?

**Bsims** · 10-28-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Hockey

Good luck

So is hockey the easiest or hardest?

**mathdotcom** · 10-28-11, 04:13 PM

hardest

**slapshot** · 10-28-11, 06:17 PM

one way of looking at this is to say team sports is harder than individual sports.
fewer guys to keep track of.....on the other hand in individual sports if your guy has a bad day there is noone there to fall back on.

**pokergal58** · 10-28-11, 09:43 PM

I started looking at international soccer and play almost exclusively over/under 2.5. I turned $500 into $4475 so far this year.

**brewers7** · 10-28-11, 10:15 PM

For me, the NBA is the easiest by far...

Why?...

Because it is the most situational sport by far...

You cannot name a sport that even comes close to having as many situational spots as the NBA does...

Toughest sport is probably the NFL since just about every team has a week off between games...However, if you really pick your spots and only play the few-and-far-between situational spots that pop up during the year, you can be successful...But I am talking about making maybe 8 to 15 "serious" bets a year, which many people cannot handle because they need "action"...

I can go on and on about how many situations pop up during the course of a NBA season, but well, I am not in the mood to type tonight...Anyone who has handicapped this sport for many years should know what I am talking about...

GL...

**Blax0r** · 10-28-11, 11:15 PM

Here're my vote (major sports only):

Hardest: Soccer
Easiest: Tennis

**Sovereign7** · 10-29-11, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

hardest

(Hockey)AGREED! It is one of the few sports with parity between the teams. A bottom dog can blow out a favorite on any given night.

**Sawyer** · 10-29-11, 12:55 PM

Hockey is easiest.
NFL is hardest.

**podonne** · 11-01-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Sovereign7

(Hockey)AGREED! It is one of the few sports with parity between the teams. A bottom dog can blow out a favorite on any given night.

Originally posted by Sawyer

Hockey is easiest.
NFL is hardest.

This is a great question, and especially interesting given the different positions on the same sport. Maybe the answer is different for your method. Stats guys may find one sport the easiest, classic handicapper the other.

**chunk** · 11-02-11, 01:12 AM

Trust me on this....any professional sport with high volume wagering is a difficult proposition. Can it be beaten? Yes, but by very few and the profit margin isn't what your average joe might want.

**lunchbawks** · 11-02-11, 01:22 AM

Nothing is easy. Put your work in, pick your spots and you'll be fine

**LLXC** · 11-02-11, 01:44 AM

Baseball (SU, totals, props) and Small College Basketball conferences have always been good to me.

NFL Spreads are very sharp (I stick with team totals/props), while NBA has always given me a hard time.

**Pokerjoe** · 11-02-11, 06:39 PM

OP's question itself--no offense intended--doesn't work.

If you mean, "Difficulty in using stats to project a final score" than the different sports are apples and oranges. Is baseball, with it's tons of stats, easier to model, if you define modelling success as "variance from the actual score?" Soccer might be easiest for that, and it has the fewest stats. Here, I'll model soccer with this: every home team wins 1.5 to 1. That simplest-possible model might have less variance from actual scores than any model anywhere for baseball, and it would be meaningless (and I don't even know if it's true, baseball guys don't go crazy).

"Difficulty in analysis" essentially means, for our purposes, "difficulty in beating the market using stats," right?

The idea that MLB is easier to model and beat the market is an illusion, because everyone else's "easy" MLB models are IN the market. So, where is the edge to be gained?

If it's easier for you to model, it's easier for your competition as well, so there's no edge to be gained with "ease of modeling."

And about turnovers in football: there's luck in all sports, and I'm not sure how anyone could quantify it such as to prove there's more in one than another. Yes, the luck in football may seem more overt than in other sports, but considering the minuscule difference in angle of a bat hitting a ball that is the difference between a home run and a pop up, and I'd say, no, the idea that football has more luck in it is illusory.

**goblue12** · 11-02-11, 10:03 PM

Hardest: College Football
Easiest: Props, Tennis, Soccer

**SBjunkie** · 11-03-11, 06:33 PM

I'd say hockey is the hardest cause the goalies can really mess things up but College Football is also hard because of major upsets.

**chunk** · 11-04-11, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by Pokerjoe

OP's question itself--no offense intended--doesn't work.

If you mean, "Difficulty in using stats to project a final score" than the different sports are apples and oranges. Is baseball, with it's tons of stats, easier to model, if you define modelling success as "variance from the actual score?" Soccer might be easiest for that, and it has the fewest stats. Here, I'll model soccer with this: every home team wins 1.5 to 1. That simplest-possible model might have less variance from actual scores than any model anywhere for baseball, and it would be meaningless (and I don't even know if it's true, baseball guys don't go crazy).

"Difficulty in analysis" essentially means, for our purposes, "difficulty in beating the market using stats," right?

The idea that MLB is easier to model and beat the market is an illusion, because everyone else's "easy" MLB models are IN the market. So, where is the edge to be gained?

If it's easier for you to model, it's easier for your competition as well, so there's no edge to be gained with "ease of modeling."

And about turnovers in football: there's luck in all sports, and I'm not sure how anyone could quantify it such as to prove there's more in one than another. Yes, the luck in football may seem more overt than in other sports, but considering the minuscule difference in angle of a bat hitting a ball that is the difference between a home run and a pop up, and I'd say, no, the idea that football has more luck in it is illusory.

Every now and then, there is an intelligent response to questions in this forum. This happens to be one of them. Trust that you will not be given a road map, but read between the lines and some knowledge can be gained.

**GunShard** · 11-04-11, 02:18 AM

Hardest: Hockey is a guessing game.
Easiest: MMA

**Juret** · 11-04-11, 05:05 AM

why does Hockey give such different opinions?

**roasthawg** · 11-04-11, 09:26 AM

major league baseball is the toughest for me.

college hoops is probably the easiest right now just based on last year's win percentage.

**Regul8er** · 11-04-11, 09:46 AM

I disagree with tennis being the easiest, like many have posted. In individual sports, we cannot predict or dicpher the motivation factor. In a team sport, if the motivation is not there for one player, sure it can have an effect on the game, but not a complete effect. I've lost many tennis bets which I felt had some value, but the player just flopped and gave a half a$$ed effort. Frustrating!

**Bill Eldred** · 11-05-11, 10:15 AM

Bsims: I could not agree more about Baseball being the easiest. I have been a student of betting baseball since 1977. There is one thing about baseball. The most important factor along with the pitcher is momentum. For instance, In the World Series just past, we all deep down knew who was going to win game 7 after we saw the way things played out in game 6. Thats my mainpoint here. I could go on all day on this subject.

**Sawyer** · 11-05-11, 11:13 AM

Baseball is good because it can be a little bit "unpredictable" sometimes. Actually, it's a good thing. You can take advantage of this situation if you pick your spots right. Picking plus money in a 50-50 game will make you "+" over long haul.

About World Series, it's totally BS. Last season Giants, this season Cardinals. Won't be surprised if Pirates win the title next year, lol.

**Bsims** · 11-07-11, 10:54 PM

Most common agreement is that the NFL and hockey are the hardest while baseball is the easiest. This probably matches the profits by sport seen in Las Vegas.

Next question. From a statistical analysis perspective couldn't one consider basketball, hockey, and soccer the same sport. Teams of players attempting to move a ball down a field via passing attempting to score goals.

Baseball and football are clearly different animals.

**donkson** · 11-08-11, 03:07 AM

no.

**podonne** · 11-10-11, 01:19 AM

I'm reconsidering whether there is a way to answer this question mathmatically.

At first I said no, it depends on your style, but there's a deeper question of just how efficient these markets are. If one market is significantly more inefficient that another, then you can reasonably say that it is easier to beat, since it is obviously less understood, and hence there are more opportunities to make +EV bets.

Has anyone applied the random walk model to the set of sports collectively? Running 10K simulations on a sport, chosing randomly for each bet, should give you an idea of the natural rate of return, and hence how efficient the market is. Compare the distributions of each sport and you'll see some markets have a lower natural rate of return than others.

Just thinking aloud.

**sapidoc** · 11-10-11, 02:12 AM

Have to agree with you here on both.

For sure MLB is the easiest. If someone's going to start modeling, start with MLB!

I would tend to agree that the NFL/NCAAF is also the most difficult, although I have not tried to model many other sports to compare with like Hockey or Tennis.

**szyy604** · 11-10-11, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by Juret

why does Hockey give such different opinions?

I'm pretty new to capping, but from what I have done, hockey is by far the hardest, trust me I'm canadian. We live hockey here, and there are significant stats that are quite useful in hockey that most people don't use. For example, instead of measure pk vs pp, you have to take the third variable into consideration; which is avg pm against. Having said that, the bounce of the puck is more unpredictable than the bounce of a football, and with the data I have collected, it is more profitable to bet dogs than faves in hockey. If one can isolate situations for dogs, you can really make a buck betting hockey. Hope this help you guys

**jwes4907** · 11-10-11, 09:48 PM

less popular sport = smaller market = less efficient = easier to predict/model

ncaaf & ncaab, especially the smaller conferences are easiest to predict.

nfl/premier league are mot difficult to predict/highly efficient.

**chipper** · 11-11-11, 01:07 AM

For me NFL seems most difficult, college hoops the easiest....

**HauntingTheHoly** · 11-11-11, 10:01 AM

I think Boxing is the easiest, but you have to understand style matchups, among other things. There are lots of ways to be on more than one side of the match. Example: Fighter A straddeled with the "over 10.5 rds." or maybe Fighter A straddled against Fighter B by KO (when fighter B has a "puncher's chance" that you feel has great value for the line given).