Avalanche vs Stars Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 10:00 AM

Avalanche vs Stars Game 1 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Avalanche ML (-120 FanDuel) and Over 5.5 (-118 FanDuel)

"The Stars are looking to get the better of the Avalanche for a third straight meeting in the playoffs. For that to occur, they must dispatch an Avalanche team entering the postseason with more confidence than a student who aced an exam without studying.

The Avs have the third-best record (16-5-2) since Feb. 26, with their multitude of personnel changes paying dividends. Deeper than the Pacific Ocean's bottomless abyss, the Avs are stacked down the middle. Charlie Coyle and Brock Nelson have been acquitting themselves famously since arriving in the Mile High City.

Meanwhile, the Stars' collective morale resembles someone who lost their job and house on the same day.

While things can quickly turn around for a team that had the shortest Stanley Cup odds last week, entering the postseason on the back of a seven-game losing streak is as rotten as it gets.

The seven-game losing streak was the Stars' longest in over a decade. Head coach Peter DeBoer took some of the blame, saying he erred on the side of caution with those recovering from or susceptible to injury.

But it's the players who must take accountability and dust themselves off quickly. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening in Game 1, which has been notoriously woeful for Dallas.

The Stars enter Saturday's home game with seven straight defeats in Game 1 of a playoff series. Concurrent seven-game losing streaks won't mesh well against an exuberant Colorado squad, which is expecting yet another boost, with club captain Gabriel Landeskog expected to suit up. Oh, and the Stars probably won't have Jason Robertson, who suffered an injury in the regular season finale."

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 10:01 AM

Avs vs Stars Game 1 player prop bets from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Nathan MacKinnon Over 0.5 assists (-105 BetMGM)

"MacKinnon only registered three assists in six games against the Stars last playoffs. I don't expect the same comparatively anemic output this time, with the Avs megastar coming into the postseason rested and highly motivated.

He finished the season with 84 assists in 79 games, registering at least one in six of the final eight games. Nobody had more assists in the regular season than MacKinnon, and I expect him to find a way to secure one in Game 1."

Matt Duchene Over 0.5 points (-125 DraftKings)

"He struggled mightily in last season's Western Conference Final against the Edmonton Oilers, but Duchene has enjoyed a significantly more productive season in 2024-25.

He's a bona fide leader of this Stars team, and he must show it for them to have any chance. Duchene was scorching in the final 29 games of the campaign, scoring at least one point in 22. Most of our best sports betting apps offer Over 0.5 points at -125, which would profit $8 on a winning $10 bet."

Martin Necas Over 0.5 points (-105 bet365)

"I expect Necas to benefit in the postseason from playing alongside MacKinnon. He has been consistently productive since joining the Avs, scoring 28 points in 30 games.

He had a point in three of the last four games of the regular season and finished last year's playoffs strongly, with three points in the final two contests against the New York Rangers. Necas has at least a point in three of the previous four meetings with Dallas. bet365 offers the best price, whose -105 odds carry a 51.22% implied probability."

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:50 AM

Colorado routs Dallas in game 1 by a score of 5-1.

Updated Series odds at DraftKings: Avalanche -350 / Stars +270

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:39 AM

Avalanche vs Stars Game 2 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Stars Moneyline (+125 DraftKings)

"The thought of going down 0-2 with the series turning back to Colorado for Game 3 should scare the McJesus out of the Stars. Losing Game 2 - particularly considering their inferior form on enemy terrain - would surely expedite the Stars' Round 1 downfall. Do I think the Stars can win the series?

No, unequivocally.

However, the Stars - the Stanley Cup odds favorites just two weeks ago - are too proud and fought doggedly all season for the right to host Games 1 and 2. While I have no doubt it won't be aesthetically pleasing, I'm backing the Stars to conjure an enormous performance to tie the series at one game apiece.

Will it be sustainable beyond Game 2?

No, unequivocally.

Despite playing without Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen while attempting to overcome their Game 1 curse, the Stars were unfortunate not to win the opener. Mackenzie Blackwood's Superman-like playoffs debut and the Avs' ruthless opportunism sealed Dallas' fate.

The Stars won the expected goals battle 3.84 to 3.64, thwarted by three or four world-class Blackwood saves. Meanwhile, Artturi Lehkonen scored the opener on an unintended scissors kick Cristiano Ronaldo would have been envious of.

Then, Nathan MacKinnon ground the salt into the Stars' wound, with his shot fortuitously deflecting past Jake Oettinger for the all-important second goal.

After Roope Hintz made it 2-1, Devon Toews scored the backbreaker just over six minutes later.

Game, set, match.

Did I mention Blackwood? His first playoff game couldn't have gone better as he finished with 2.84 goals saved above expected.

The Stars have lost eight straight opening games of a playoff series. Before you regurgitate out of disgust, let this sink in: Dallas is 5-2 in the following game. Expect them to make it 6-2 thanks to a heroic performance from every member of the collective.

Jamie Benn Over 1.5 shots (-114 FanDuel)

"The Stars need a captain's response from Benn, who was held to one shot on goal in Game 1. Benn has only one shot in the last two games against the Avs, but should be at his best for Game 2. While I don't expect the 35-year-old to blow the roof off American Airlines Center, he should have enough spirit and fight to muster two.

Benn fired at least two shots on goal in five of the previous seven games against the Avalanche and hit the Over against them in the final three games of last season's series."

Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 points (-115 BetMGM)

"Johnston must shoulder even more of the offensive burden without the injured Robertson. He notched an assist in Game 1, his sixth straight game against the Avs with at least one.

He amassed eight assists in his previous five regular-season games against Colorado and was one of the most dangerous Stars in the opener."

Nathan MacKinnon Over 0.5 assists (-122 FanDuel)

"MacKinnon dominated every facet of Game 1, scoring two goals while adding a helper. By now, we shouldn't expect anything less. I backed him to get an assist in the opener, and I'm doing the same in Game 2, despite believing the Avs will be held to one, maybe two goals."

**SBR Andy** · 04-22-25, 10:23 AM

The Stars even the series at 1-1 after a 4-3 overtime victory in Game 2.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Avalanche -180 / Stars +150

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 02:26 PM

Stars vs Avalanche Game 3 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Avalanche 3-way ML (-115 DraftKings)

"The Stars almost do enough in Game 2 to make up for their eight consecutive Game 1 defeats. On Monday, they improved to 6-2 in their last eight Game 2's, putting together a performance for the ages. Every member of the Stars roster played like it was the final game of their careers, and it showed, exemplified by their 4.92 expected goals.

The Avalanche were overwhelmed for large portions of the contest, mustering just 2.22 expected goals. According to MoneyPuck.com, all 18 Dallas players had a higher expected goals percentage than Jonathan Drouin (43.83%), the best of the Avs players. It's a stat I've never seen before, epitomizing the Stars' wholesale dominance.

But, by the predicted score above, you obviously saw this coming; Colorado is a markedly more intense avalanche at home. The fact that they almost beat the Stars after being so comprehensively outplayed is telling, and it won't recur in the Mile High City. The Avs were 9-2-1 down the stretch, with the setback to Vancouver in the final game at Ball Arena more meaningless than learning advanced calculus in high school.

In his first two postseason contests, Mackenzie Blackwood outperformed Jake Oettinger. The Avalanche netminder will only get more comfortable with more reps.

While Miro Heiskanen is traveling with the team, there is no word on whether he'll feature. Jason Robertson stayed in Dallas and will not be available.

The only thing I don't like about this bet is the need for the Avs to win in regulation. However, there isn't enough value in backing them on the moneyline."

Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 points (+126 DraftKings)

"MacKinnon has accelerated into the playoffs like he does when bull-rushing petrified opponents. He is receiving the second-shortest Conn Smythe Trophy odds thanks to scoring four points in the first two games, three of which in Game 1. He's almost always more productive in the thin air of Mile High City, where he scored 68 points in 40 regular-season games."

Cale Makar Over 0.5 assists (-130 bet365)

"Makar has an assist in each of the first two games and seven helpers in his last six regular-season games against the Stars. He had 33 assists in 41 home games during the regular season and will be in the mood in his first home playoff game of the year."

Matt Duchene Over 1.5 shots (-106 BetRivers)

"Despite not playing at his best, Duchene hit the Over in both games in Dallas. The lower total provides a good shot at hitting the Over on the road, and his -106 odds are the most palatable of the bunch. I'm veering away from point props for the Stars, as I don't think they'll score more than two goals."