Canadiens vs Capitals Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:26 AM

Canadiens vs Capitals Game 1 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Canadiens Moneyline (+164 DraftKings)

"The Canadiens are playing with house money after making it to the postseason. Touted before the season as a potential Eastern Conference bottom feeder, the Canadiens ascended to relevance after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Martin St. Louis' team tied the Tampa Bay Lightning for the fifth-best record (15-5-6) since Feb. 22.

They've impressed me so much that my long-shot alarm is on high alert. One thing could scupper the Canadiens' chances of upending the Caps: They are markedly inferior on the road, losing seven of the last nine in enemy rinks.

However, the Caps - with the 13th-ranked home record (17-11-3) since Feb. 2 - weren't as good at home during the regular season, which could negate the Habs' road deficiencies.

Depending on whether the Canadiens can channel their exuberance and turn it into a strength, inexperience could be their second fatal downfall.

Make of it what you will, but the Capitals were comparatively abysmal down the stretch. I discussed the reasons for their regression in my best underdog bets in Round 1.

I'm interested to see whether Spencer Carbery's team, one of the most consistent before the end of March, can flip the switch and recapture their dominant form. Based on some worrying stats down the stretch, I have my doubts.

The Caps, among the Stanley Cup odds contenders, had the third-worst goals differential above expected (-16.38) while allowing the third-most goals per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.11) over the last 20 games. They also had the eighth-worst PDO and ranked 23rd in goals percentage.

The Habs haven't been as happy with their goaltending since Carey Price was forced out of the lineup. Samuel Montembeault is 13-3-4 in his last 20 games, sporting a .912 save percentage and a 2.48 goals-against average (GAA).

For the Caps, things aren't as stable. Their long-term playoff success is predicated on having Logan Thompson between the pipes. Thompson missed the last seven games of the season with an upper-body injury. While back at practice, his availability for Game 1 is still unconfirmed.

It could take Thompson a while to return to his best, even if he wins the race against time. Charlie Lindgren was 20-14-3 with a 2.73 GAA and an .896 save percentage. He was one of the reasons his team struggled in the waning weeks, with an .878 save percentage and a 3.11 GAA in his last eight starts."

Cole Caulfield Over 2.5 shots (-120 FanDuel)

"Monday's game marks Caufield's first trip to the postseason since his rookie season, when the Habs lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Tampa Bay Lightning. He must be at his best for the Habs to win Game 1.

With at least three shots in six of the previous seven meetings against the Caps, I expect Caufield to channel his best version. He hit the Over in six of the 10 games down the stretch."

Nick Suzuki Over 0.5 assists (-105 BetMGM)

"There is no way the Habs are in the playoffs without their captain and primary difference-maker. Suzuki was exquisite down the stretch, scoring the fourth-most points (37) in the last 26 games, 22 of which were assists. Suzuki posted at least one helper in six of the previous eight games against the Capitals."

Dylan Strome Over 0.5 assists (+100 DraftKings)

"Strome led the Caps with 53 assists in 82 games during the regular season. His assists dried up in the last meaningless stretch, where he posted two in the final five games. Beforehand, Strome notched at least one helper in five straight. He has three assists in the last four games against Montreal."

**SBR Andy** · 04-22-25, 10:21 AM

Ovechkin score twice including the overtime winner to take Game 1 by a score of 3-2.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Capitals -550 / Canadiens +400

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 02:24 PM

Canadiens vs Capitals Game 2 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Canadiens Moneyline (+165 BetMGM)

"Had it not been for Alex Ovechkin, Logan Thompson, and Dylan Strome, the Montreal Canadiens would have escaped Washington with a Game 1 victory. Then again, the Capitals would have been home and dry had it not been for Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Lane Hutson.

Ovechkin's first playoff overtime game-winner scuppered my 3-2 Canadiens Game 1 prediction. It wasn't the first time the Great 8 ruined my exact score prediction and I have a feeling it won't be the last. Bullied off the puck while showing some early apprehension and nerves, the Canadiens struggled for 40 minutes.

The third period was, however, a different story altogether, and the Caps have Thompson to thank for pushing the game into overtime.

After adapting to the pace and physicality of playoff hockey expertly in the final frame, I don't think the Habs will let that loss phase them. They're young and exuberant and should be able to move on from Ovi's clutch game-winner.

Thompson finished Game 1 with 33 saves on 35 shots and 1.66 goals above expected. If he maintains that standard, the Habs could be in trouble. But I'm expecting their speed to come to the fore, with an empty netter sealing the deal. While not quite a flier, the Habs are the discernible underdogs and a winning $10 bet at BetMGM would profit $16.50."

Nick Suzuki Over 2.5 shots (+140 DraftKings)

"Suzuki put the Canadiens on his back in Game 1, which is unsurprising if you tracked his progress in the season's final third. While Suzuki isn't known for being a prolific shooter, he let loose from everywhere in the opener, firing seven shots on Thompson on 10 attempts.

Those are gaudy numbers from the Habs captain. While a repeat performance will be extremely challenging, I expect him to bust through the three-shot threshold."

Dylan Strome Over 0.5 assists (-105 bet365)

"Strome to notch an assist has been one of my most profitable prop bets this season. And he didn't disappoint in Game 1, securing an apple on every Caps goal. His three assists represent a snapshot of how important Strome is to the Caps' offense. He's an omnipresent threat at 5-on-5 and is integral on the power play. When the Caps score, there's a good chance Strome will be in on the act, especially if Ovechkin is the triggerman. "

Cole Caufield Over 0.5 points (-140 bet365)

"Like Suzuki, Caufield was a man on a mission in Game 1. He scored a goal on five shots, making it six points in his last four games versus the Capitals. Caufield and Suzuki's line had a 77.2% expected goals share in Game 1. Caufield should again get on the scoresheet if they can get anywhere that total in Game 2."