Panthers vs Lightning Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-22-25, 12:38 PM

Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 predictions from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Lightning Moneyline (-115 BetMGM)

"The Lightning enter the playoffs in markedly better form than their Sunshine State adversaries. While confidence won't be an issue for the defending Cup champions, the Panthers stumbled into the postseason and should struggle to overcome a healthy, in-form Lightning team.

The Panthers were tied for the second-worst road record (3-8-1) and scored the fewest goals per game (1.83) in enemy rinks since the 4 Nations break.

Hamstrung by the loss of Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad, the Cats were a tamer, more listless version of their former selves. While Tkachuk's presence in Game 1 will be a game-time decision, Ekblad will not feature until Game 3.

Even if Tkachuk plays, I can't see him being at his sharpest after missing two months of action, particularly against a scorching-hot Lightning outfit.

Since the 4 Nations break, the Lightning had the third-best home record (11-1-2). I have no doubt the Panthers will improve as the series transpires, but the Lightning should have the upper hand in the opener."

Jake Guentzel Over 0.5 points (-145 bet365)

"Due to the short -145 odds, Guentzel to notch at least a point is a three-star play. While the profit on a $10 bet will be just $6.90, Guentzel tallied a point in seven straight against the Panthers. He notched a point in eight of the final 13 regular-season games and posted a point in four of his final six playoff games with the Carolina Hurricanes last season."

Yanni Gourde Over 1.5 shots (-110 bet365)

"Gourde finished the season with at least two shots in seven of the final nine games. Though it was two seasons ago, Gourde was productive the last time he was in the playoffs, with five Overs in his previous six appearances. He's built for the playoffs, and I expect him to raise his level for Tuesday's opener."

Sam Bennett Over 0.5 points (+110 DraftKings)

"Bennett was one of the Panthers' most influential players in their Cup-winning run. He had 14 points in 19 games and was an omnipresent threat. After missing a few games down the stretch due to an upper-body injury, Bennett is healthy and good to go. He'll be playing with Tkachuk if he returns to the lineup, with the pair finding superb chemistry last playoffs. Even if Tkachuk doesn't play, Bennett raises his level in the playoffs and should make his presence felt."

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 08:17 AM

Florida dominates Game 1 by a score of 6-2.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Panthers -210 / Lightning +180

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-28T14:30:20+00:00

Lightning vs Panthers Game 4 player prop picks from SBR's Connor Cooper:

Brayden Point Over 2.5 shots (+140 DraftKings)

"Point has scored a goal in two of the first three games in this series, and his production has been no fluke. The high-scoring forward is tied for second with six high-danger chances in the postseason, and he’s averaged three shots on goal per game.

That consistent volume makes it comfortable to back him to generate multiple scoring opportunities again tonight. DraftKings’ +140 odds on Point Over 2.5 shots gives us a chance at a nice return without needing Point to find the net, but +180 on Point Over 0.5 goals at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is a solid alternative if you’d like an even bigger price."

Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 assists (-162 FanDuel)

"Kucherov hasn’t scored a goal in 13 straight playoff games, but it’s hard to give him much heat about it because of how well he continues to set up his teammates. His three-assist performance in Game 3 made him the seventh player in NHL history to record 30 multiple-assist games in the postseason, and it was the 11th time he’s had at least three helpers in a playoff game.

He’s also drawn at least one assist in each of the last seven playoff games in which Tampa Bay hasn’t been shut out, and nine of the last 11.

With FanDuel offering a discounted -162 price on Kucherov to record at least one assist tonight (compared to -185 at BetMGM and -188 at Caesars), I’ll back the NHL’s premier setup man to improve those numbers tonight. A $10 wager pays $6.17, but it could make for a nice same-game parlay piece as well."

Aaron Ekblad Over 0.5 points (+146 FanDuel)

"Ekblad has expressed plenty of regret about a failed drug test that caused him to be suspended for 20 games, including the first two games of the playoffs. Then, in his first game back from the suspension, he posted an ugly minus-4 rating in Game 3.

The veteran defenseman is known for his character, and I’m expecting him to do whatever it takes to make things up to his teammates tonight. At +146 at FanDuel, it’s worth taking a flyer on Ekblad recording at least one point in Game 4."