To puck line, or not to puck line

[beaneaters]

Hey guys,

I'm looking for some input on this, especially from some of you who have been at this racket for awhile. I've been trying to determine if playing the puck line (giving up 1 1/2 goals) is a worthy play, or a sucker bet. Is there a general consensus in the industry?

I have lost on 23 such bets this year, and on 11 of those, I had the right team, but they only won by one. Am I playing a losing game?

I have the idea of playing both the moneyline, and the puckline, on the same games, backing up the puckline bet as insurance in one-goal games. Does anyone else do this? Is it foolish, or recommended?
I'd like some thoughts,
Bean

[LT Profits]

I actually prefer the -1 bets at 5 Dimes. Sure the odds are lower than the -1.5, but they are still higher than the straight Money Lines, and a one-goal win is just a push.

[curious]

Hey guys,

I'm looking for some input on this, especially from some of you who have been at this racket for awhile. I've been trying to determine if playing the puck line (giving up 1 1/2 goals) is a worthy play, or a sucker bet. Is there a general consensus in the industry?

I have lost on 23 such bets this year, and on 11 of those, I had the right team, but they only won by one. Am I playing a losing game?

I have the idea of playing both the moneyline, and the puckline, on the same games, backing up the puckline bet as insurance in one-goal games. Does anyone else do this? Is it foolish, or recommended?
I'd like some thoughts,
Bean

You will be better off betting both the ML and the -1 1/2 PL, this is in effect a -1 PL, because a 1 puck loss becomes a push. Hockey is different than baseball in that a lot more games are decided by one puck than are decided by one run.

Here is an example:
Detroit PL -1 1/2 +200 100 wins 200
Detroit ML -140 140 wins 100

Total 240 wins 300
This is in effect a -1 PL for 100 wins 125

Outcomes:
Detroit loses by 1 puck PUSH
Detroit loses by >1 puck lose 240
Detroit wins, win 300

[20Four7]

Take the pucks but never give them is my philosphy. I like finding good dogs at +150 or better than betting the ML and then taking the 1 1/2. If it goes to OT than your guaranteed at least a break even. Keeps me out of trouble that way. Of course if they get blown out 5 - 2 you weren't winning anyways.

[PLUSLINES]

Hey BE,

I certainly would be the first to agree that winning with Puckline is a tough nut to crack. I have spent hundreds of hours on Runline and Puckline stats in attempt to pull out profitable systems that will actually work. Of all my wagers thus far in the NHL season(47, 1 per day) 30% have been Puckline, the others Moneyline. The reason I only have 30% of my plays Puckline is just simply that the filtering system I use does not give me teams each day..generally one out of about every 2-3 days. I don't mess with totals. I would tell you that of the 13 Puckline wagers I have placed in NHL thus far, I have won 10 of them. Will that remain throughout the remainder of the season? Of course not. It's not possible and I know that. My input would just be that I have identified a select group of criteria(filters) that have helped me achieve the success I have enjoyed thus far. The system that I currently use was created out of a successful Runline system as actually has many common components. I think that winning @ Puckline can be done, but I have never found a system that will allow for "daily" Puckline selections. The link I am posting is only an attempt to show the teams/record STD thus far. Anyone is welcome to view and "use or loose" the info as you see fit. I have had to make a few adjustments since inception, but each time I make an adjustment to the system I go back thru each game of each day to adjust the selections so that at the end of the season it is a true record of wins cs losses for teams that fit the system completely.

http://forums.eog.com/hockey-betting/plus-lines-new-2007-2008-nhl-108148.html

Plus+Lines

[curious]

Hey BE,

I certainly would be the first to agree that winning with Puckline is a tough nut to crack. I have spent hundreds of hours on Runline and Puckline stats in attempt to pull out profitable systems that will actually work. Of all my wagers thus far in the NHL season(47, 1 per day) 30% have been Puckline, the others Moneyline. The reason I only have 30% of my plays Puckline is just simply that the filtering system I use does not give me teams each day..generally one out of about every 2-3 days. I don't mess with totals. I would tell you that of the 13 Puckline wagers I have placed in NHL thus far, I have won 10 of them. Will that remain throughout the remainder of the season? Of course not. It's not possible and I know that. My input would just be that I have identified a select group of criteria(filters) that have helped me achieve the success I have enjoyed thus far. The system that I currently use was created out of a successful Runline system as actually has many common components. I think that winning @ Puckline can be done, but I have never found a system that will allow for "daily" Puckline selections. The link I am posting is only an attempt to show the teams/record STD thus far. Anyone is welcome to view and "use or loose" the info as you see fit. I have had to make a few adjustments since inception, but each time I make an adjustment to the system I go back thru each game of each day to adjust the selections so that at the end of the season it is a true record of wins cs losses for teams that fit the system completely.

http://forums.eog.com/hockey-betting/plus-lines-new-2007-2008-nhl-108148.html

Plus+Lines

Would you mind sharing the variables that go into your filter?

[PLUSLINES]

Curious,

Well, the internet, she is a crazy thing as you know. The good thing is that it is a wealth of information for all to see. Unfortunately, many of those who read are looking for ways to make money by taking others ideas and using for their own financial gain. It is just crazy out there. For that reason I cannot post the information in the forum. I am sorry. In appreciate your reply. I will continue to post the daily plays here at the forum. I have only posted a very small selection in the past here at SBR and have made some adjustments since the original posts.
Thanks again!

PL

[PLUSLINES]

BE,

I appologize for being "long winded" in your thread. I was just trying to explain then answer a question posed. I will make additional posts on the subject in the Pluslines thread.

Good Luck on your Wagers!

Plus+Lines

[atakdog]

Does anyone know (and could you please explain) how the books calculate the puck lines? Specifically, are they functions of the moneyline only, the moneyline and the o/u, or more than those two variables?

It seems to me that if they are always, frequently, or even sometimes set without reference to the o/u, then there might be an opportunity here, namely to tend to take the points in games that are expected to be low-scoring, and to give them in games that are expected to be high scoring. I suppose some of you have checked that -- am I wrong?

[figjam]

Frankly if you want to make money over the long haul, avoid taking the -1.5 puck lines. If you do research, youll find out that only approx 30% of games are won by 2 or more goals. So say for argument sake your 100% at picking the winning team and you always lay $100...so if your odds are roughly 1/3 times that youll hit on -1.5, given the fact that the lines for -1.5 are usually double the money lines then its a losing proposal over the long run.
I don't particularly like take plus 1.5 either as the juice is usually way higher thans its worth, but then again some argue it doesn't matter what the juice is if you win but frankly i don't go by that theory...I make take stabs here and there on puck lines + or - 1.5 but i stick to money line and -.5 as they provide the best value in my books.

Thats just my 2 cents on puck lines. I wouldn't play em if you plan on capping seriously over the long run.

[PLUSLINES]

Yes, Puckline is a tough one. That is why I only pick it in very select scenarios. V-e-r-y S-e-l-e-c-t.

Plus+lines

[beaneaters]

Hey all,

I appreciate the responses to my question. I was wondering if puck lines were a bit of a sucker bet, and to a degree it sounds like they are. Not to say I'll ignore them completely, but I'll probably back off on occasion (like tonight with Ott/Montreal).
I know in baseball I was often playing the run line, and it took a while before I clued in how betting a home team can be foolish, because of how often they wind up not batting in the bottom of the ninth. No such guideline in hockey though.


Thanks LT, but I don't have an account at 5 Dimes, and my method of deposit doesn't seem to be offered. I will continue to study your picks though, congrats on a great year thus far.

Curious, that's kind of how my thinking went. I've had so many one-goal wins (11 of 23) that didn't pay off because I took the puck line. I like the insurance of betting both to help insure a push. But the losses would be a lot steeper.

20Four7, I can honestly say I had never considered actually taking the goal and a half. I'll look at it more closely. But I know how great it feels to get an empty net goal when I've given 1.5, so I can only imagine the pain when an empty netter screws with your +1.5 bet.

PlusLines, I hope your system works for you, and I'll continue to look for your picks. But I honestly don't understand the state secret. I thought forums were for exchanging ideas. But I'm sure you have your reasons, so best of luck with it.

Atakdog, I can't help you with that. I'm pretty new to the game.

Figjam, your point of only 30 per cent of games being decided by more than a goal is well taken. Hadn't thought of it in those terms. I do think I'll probably be playing a bit fewer puck line bets, using more discretion, but continue to back some of those fewer selections with moneyline bets as well.

Thanks all,
Bean

[PLUSLINES]

Would you mind sharing the variables that go into your filter?

One of them is NEVER-EVER bet against a HOT Team, even if it is only a "seemingly temporary" condition. An example to me of a some of the components of a HOT Team is one that:

• Has a GFA of 3 or greater in their last 5 games.
• Has won 60% or more of their last 5 games.
• Has won 2 straight going into a home ice game.
  
  An example of this would be Dallas vs Pitt Tonight. I would not have taken Dallas though they have been doing well. There is certainly a strong case for them as a play and I know others have sided with them tonight.... and I wish them the best of luck tonight, as I do all others here as well. These are just a small portion of filter criteria I use. There are others here at SBR that obviously have different filtering systems than I and that have equal or greater Win vs Loss records than I. This is just a portion of what works for me personally.

[curious]

Hey guys,

I'm looking for some input on this, especially from some of you who have been at this racket for awhile. I've been trying to determine if playing the puck line (giving up 1 1/2 goals) is a worthy play, or a sucker bet. Is there a general consensus in the industry?

I have lost on 23 such bets this year, and on 11 of those, I had the right team, but they only won by one. Am I playing a losing game?

I have the idea of playing both the moneyline, and the puckline, on the same games, backing up the puckline bet as insurance in one-goal games. Does anyone else do this? Is it foolish, or recommended?
I'd like some thoughts,
Bean

That depends. I made a list of teams ranked by how many 1 puck games they have had this year. If a team has lots of 1 puck games then I use PL +1 1/2 if I bet them as a dog. If a team has few one puck games, then I use PL -1 1/2 when I bet them as a fav.

NOTE, I have to like these teams anyway, the PL bet is a kind of insurance. I don't base betting on the team on the PL.

So far the PL +1 1/2 has paid off, the PL -1 1/2 is a loser, but $#^&( Ottawa is 0-6 when I bet them this year, and they have lost 6 games all year, in other words they lose everytime I bet them. If I leave Ottawa out of the stats then the PL has worked both ways pretty well, AFTER I made the list of teams ranked by how many 1 puck games they played this year so far. Before that the PL was a big loser for me.

[PLUSLINES]

That depends. I made a list of teams ranked by how many 1 puck games they have had this year. If a team has lots of 1 puck games then I use PL +1 1/2 if I bet them as a dog. If a team has few one puck games, then I use PL -1 1/2 when I bet them as a fav.

NOTE, I have to like these teams anyway, the PL bet is a kind of insurance. I don't base betting on the team on the PL.

So far the PL +1 1/2 has paid off, the PL -1 1/2 is a loser, but $#^&( Ottawa is 0-6 when I bet them this year, and they have lost 6 games all year, in other words they lose everytime I bet them. If I leave Ottawa out of the stats then the PL has worked both ways pretty well, AFTER I made the list of teams ranked by how many 1 puck games they played this year so far. Before that the PL was a big loser for me.

Yep! See there...many many various winning combinations from different posters that work for each. And I respect each and every one of them. PL