just checking in.
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Look forward to it Wallco!Comment -
Wallco NHL GOLD
2011-12 System to date: 7-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +7.00 units (finished series)
Current open series: 2 (-9.82units)
(10/23/11):
No System Plays
v1
(A) 4-2
(B) 1-0
(C) 0-0
v2
(A) 1-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 0-0
Games for (10/24/11):
#2 Florida @ Montreal (M/L) v2 (C) (7:35 pm EDT)
#9 Resumes on 10/27/11
** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1 1/2) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com's final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-24-11, 10:47 PM.Comment -
I just noticed this and wondering if you have as well. I've followed all your other systems and it seemed like many of the "A" bets were 50/50 with respect to wins/losses. However, looking at your backtest for V1 and V2, you have between 60-70% win ratio on "A" bets for both V1 and V2?! Am I reading that wrong? At first I thought just to play "A" bets than but obviously playing p/l will create high juice so even though your winning ~70% of the time, it won't be profitable? I'll look more into this weekend but I'm sure you've already checked all of the combinations of just betting "a" or both "a & b"
Anyways looking forward to following this and good luckComment -
So montreal is a play tonight.. good luck will have to book mark thisComment -
Thank you! Good luck
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Just the MLB was, we were playing mostly dog teams, so obviously more (A) bets will lose. I believe the (A) bet percentage for my Chase 110 was pretty good as well. I thought about playing (A) and (B) only, but then all of our now (C) bets wins would become losses. Granted, the losses will cost less, but they could still be around 10 units or more, depending on lines, and there are many of them. This just seemed the most profitable, at the cost of being the most risk. I tried playing M/L on dogs and -1 1/2 on favs, that got crushed.Comment -
Hey Wallco do you run this for baseball aswell? If so, could you post the link. Thanks man.sbrComment -
(A) bet winning percentages for NHL GOLD:
v1 - 631 of a possible 978 (64.5%)
v2 - 307 of a possible 488 (62.9%)
combined - 938 of a possible 1466 (64%)
Playing only (A) bets and assuming all bets are -176 (since there are roughly 20 units per loss, keeping all bets equal would be -176 per bet). Assuming all units are $100.
938 wins = 93800
528 losses (1466-938) @ -176 = -92928
Total = +$872 for six years (Avg. of +1.45 units per year)
Not too good, although there is a baseball thread that wins at about that rate. The lady who runs that conservative thread says it's awesome!
I believe playing (A) & (B) ends up much lower, but if you have the time, feel free to test it and let me know if I'm wrong.Comment -
No this is new. I ran something similar for NBA last year (Chase 110), the system went 85-0. That is all documented in the 2010-11 JM NBA thread. It's not exactly the same, because of point spreads, lines are all -110, we played to (D) bet, and the fact that we didn't care about win streaks.Comment -
My baseball system is completely different. It has been extremely successful for 6 years, and shit the bed this past season. Mainly because I added a v2 to the system, which clearly, was a mistake. When backing out our several v2 losses, which wouldn't have been part of the original format, we would have been slightly ahead / close to even. Next year I will go back to the original and try and tweak a few items.Comment -
Thanks. I was going to run all of this info when I got home from work tomorrow as its going to be a late night and early morning. I'll let you know about the (A) and (B) but from the volume of games played in your system, I would assume your right that 250ish wins with a couple of (C) losses would be more profitable then 200 or so wins with about 30 losses that don't hurt as much.
It would be one thing if you had close to a 50% win rate on C bets, then it would definitely be more profitable just betting an (a) and (b) but some years you've killed C bets winning around 80% of them whereas a couple years were close to 50% so I think there is too much variation in the 10 years to claim an (a) and (b) would be better long-term.
But I'll look into it.
Thanks againComment -
Is everyone running a straight chase with this? Any labby users?Comment -
at first glance at the first post i had to shudder from all the bold text
. think ill lay off the disaster which is the jm nfl thread and use your plays to hopefully make up some of the losses. bol on montreal tonight
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I just realized today the whole thing was bold. I did not type it that way in Word. I can't change it because my edit time has expired. I hate the way it looks, but it's now permanentComment -
Hey wallco!
Good job here.
I also started to backtest a system I created for NHL. I have 4 seasons done and average 35 units per season. I will finish my homeworks and post it one day... That could be a great supplement to your system here.
I am wondering what is the worst downswing your system had in one season?
My system (so far) worst swing is -20 units. It happened twice, in to different seasons. It is also a chasing system...
I am asking because I want to figure out what % of roll should be 1 unit in YOUR system?
Good work again!Comment -
No need for the panic button. The system averages almost 9 losses per season, that is 1.5 per month. There will be losses, as long as they don't happen in bunches we will be fine. There are a lot of plays in this system to help offset any of these losses. It just sucks that it happened at the same time that the JM NFL took a crap. We don't have many wins so far because the first three games don't count, which took away a bunch of potential plays. But all streaks from here on will count, at least until we approach the All Star break.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-24-11, 10:36 PM.Comment -
backtest results speak for themselvesComment -
Wallco NHL GOLD
2011-12 System to date: 7-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -11.60 units(finished series)
Current open series: 1 (-2.30 units)
(10/24/11):
#2 Montreal (M/L) v2 (C) - Loss
v1 Plays
(A) 4-2
(B) 1-0
(C) 0-0
v2 Plays
(A) 1-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 0-1
Games for (10/25/11):
#9 Resumes on 10/27/11
#10 Pittsburgh @ N.Y. Islanders (+1½) (A) (7:05 pm EDT)
** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1 1/2) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-25-11, 09:16 AM.Comment -
That was a misprint. Thank you for picking up on that. I fixed it. Keep in mind, in the closer games you will need to keep an eye on the lines during the day. If a team should switch from favorite or dog, or vice versa, the line I have posted in the morning would be inaccurate. I thought about posting just the team and not the lines next to it, but I guarantee that someone would ask every day whether it was M/L or P/L. I will list what it is at the time of my post, and if a game changes, and time permits, I will make a second post with the new line. But just know that the final line at ScoresandOdds.com decides who is our dog and who is our favorite, not our local book's lines. All results are calculated based on which team is the dog on that site, and we need to make sure we are on the right side of the line in the closer games. Just be careful when placing your bets early in the day that the team we are playing won't possibly switch from a favorite to a dog by game time, thus we play a money line when we should have been on +1 1/2. If that team should go on to lose by 1 goal, the system would get a win and we would get a loss, regardless of what line I posted in the morning, since the final line decides the outcome.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-25-11, 08:32 AM.Comment -
Hi
maybe I wasn't clear:
I want to know what is the worst downswing your system had IN ONE SEASON in terms of "RUNNING PROFIT" before bouncing back. Meaning that if we had to start a season with this downswing (without having collecting any profit yet), how many units should we have as a roll to take that swing?
If you graph one season, what is the largest variation between linked high and low points?Comment -
Wallco have u tested for regulation bets?
It seems that even if we lose more times in the A and B bets but with odds at regulation prices (20-25% better) we could get more money by losing less units when a series end up losing!Comment -
I only have the loss dates listed, wins were all 1 unit, so dates weren't critical to me when I was testing. I test systems for "whole season" production, not day-day. There really is no answer for that question. Even if I had a number for you, it wouldn't mean that it would never exceed that. We average 9 losses per season. When they happen is never the same. We could have all 9 early, then never see another one. Or go on a 100 game run then lose 9 of our next 10. I figure 9 losses on average, so have a bankroll large enough to cover the 9 losses happening as our first 9 games, which will never happen. Figure your bankroll and work backwards. Assume the average loss is 20 units, I believe it is lower, but it makes for easy math. I would need 180-200 units in my bankroll in case of disaster.
If I average 9 losses per season, and I lost all 9 games up front, I would be down 180 units. This is an unbelievable worst case scenario.
Now assume my starting bankroll was $10000. I would need to be equal to about 200 units so the 180 unit loss wouldn't have wiped me out (10000/200=50). If I started with 5000, my units would be 25.
I would probably play $50 units in this case. I play more, but I am a higher risk player.Comment -
Good luck this season Wallco and much respect for all the contributions you have made to the SBR community! I'll be tracking these plays for sureComment -
Not thrilled with risking 2.6 units to win 1 on the Islanders puck line (and that's on the 5Dimes reduced juice line).Comment -
Hey Wallco, followed your MLB Plu$$$ later in the season and hoping to make some money in here. Is the LA-NJ game not a play tonight? Let's make some $$ and bolComment -
maybe i missed a game but i thought the Kings won their last 4 - 10/15 vs PHI, 10/18 vs STL, 10/20 vs PHO, and 10/22 vs DALComment -
Meh, -277 is to much for me, gl for you guys.Comment
