Kentucky Derby Trend Data

[BGboothA]

I know its pointless in the long run,but its fun! And can be telling a little. But here is a blog I just wrote for our site. Thought I would share.

---------------
Every year millions of people try to handicap one of the toughest races of the year, the Kentucky Derby. The reason this race is so tough is very simple. There are 20 horses running in the race. That’s more than any other horse race in the United States throughout the rest of the year. In order to have a chance at figuring out how to cash a ticket on Derby day, you have to start by eliminating horses that aren’t going to make it. Derby journalist Jon White came up with his strike system a few years back and this list is a similar system based on some of his research. You can find even more data like this in our FREE Derby packet as well.

• Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4^th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4^th in the same time period.
  • This eliminates:
    • Uncle Sigh (5^th, Wood Memorial)
    • Cairo Prince (4^th, Florida Derby)
    • Tapiture (4^th, Arkansas Derby)
    • Vinceremos (14^th, Blue Grass)
    • Harry’s Holiday (13^th, Blue Grass)

• Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2.
  • This eliminates:
    • Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30^th)
    • Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8^th)
    • Vinceremos (broke maiden on Jan. 4^th)

• 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1^st or 2^nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
  • This eliminates:
  
  
  • Wicked Strong
  • We Miss Artie
  • Candy Boy
  • Cairo Prince
  • Danza
  • Tapiture
  • Vinceremos
  • Harry’s Holiday
  • Commanding Curve

• Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
  • This eliminates:
    • Ride On Curlin
    • General A Rod
    • Uncle Sigh
    • Harry’s Holiday
    • Commanding Curve

• Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
  • This eliminates:
    • Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
    • Danza (4 starts)
    • Hoppertunity (5 starts)
    • Chitu (4 starts)
    • Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
    • Cairo Prince (5 starts)
    • Uncle Sigh (5 starts)
    • Vinceremos (5 starts)

• Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
  • This eliminates:
    • Ring Weekend

Now if you are keeping score….How many negative points did each horse get?

California Chrome	0
Intense Holiday	0
Medal Count	0
Samraat	0
Dance With Fate	0
WildCat Red	0
Wicked Strong	-1
We Miss Artie	-1
Midnight Hawk	-1
Vicar’s In Trouble	-1
Chitu	-1
Ride On Curlin	-1
General A Rod	-1
Candy Boy	-2
Hoppertunity	-2
Tapiture	-2
Danza	-2
Ring Weekend	-2
*Commanding Curve	-2
Cairo Prince	-3
Uncle Sigh	-3
*Harry’s Holiday	-3
*Vinceremos	-4

So what does this mean?
In order to handicap a race with 20 horses we have to start by tossing a number of them to the wayside. Taking a closer look at thsi list I think its safe to say that a number of these horses simply don’t have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t pull a Golden Soul and come from no where to finish second or third. But can we safely toss a few of these from the winners circle?

[harthebar]

things like that really work, i posted this well before u conn won the ncaa championship, sorry to go off the subject, i did the research, it just happens im a villanova fan, thats the only reason , i did this













2014 who knocked villanova out in the 2nd round uconn ...so unconn will be the champion its destiny......dont ignore it
2013 champion was louisville.... villanove played and lost to them last game of that season
2012 they were not in tourney but kentucky. Won.
2011 they were in the torney lost in first round who won...u conn.... nova played u conn that year and lost
2010 they were in duke won ..no connection
2009 lost to north carolina in ncaa tourney...north carolina won championship
2008 lost to kansas in tourney kansas won tourney
2007 lost in first round to kentucky.... florida won the championship , but ky lost to florida twice that year
2006 lost to florida in tourney who won tourney florida
2005 lost to north carolina in tourney who won right again north carolina
2004 not in tourney who won... U conn... villanova lost to u conn twice that year
2003 not in tourney who won syrcuse another big east team

[harthebar]

anyway , would like to see more, what is your web site again, got a question, how many horses thAT WON THE SANTA ANITA DERBY, WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY, I

Year	Winner		Age		Jockey
2014	California Chrome		3		Victor Espinoza
2013	Goldencents		3		Kevin Krigger
2012	I'll Have Another		3		Mario Gutierrez
2011	Midnight Interlude		3		Victor Espinoza
2010	Sidney's Candy		3		Joe Talamo
2009	Pioneerof the Nile		3		Garrett Gomez
2008	Colonel John		3		Corey Nakatani
2007	Tiago		3		Mike E. Smith
2006	Brother Derek		3		Alex Solis
2005	Buzzards Bay		3		Mark Guidry
2004	Castledale		3		Jose Valdivia, Jr.
2003	Buddy Gil		3		Gary Stevens
2002	Came Home		3		Chris McCarron
2001	Point Given		3		Gary Stevens
2000	The Deputy		3		Chris McCarron
1999	General Challenge		3		Gary Stevens
1998	Indian Charlie		3		Gary Stevens
1997	Free House		3		Kent Desormeaux
1996	Cavonnier		3		Chris McCarron
1995	Larry the Legend		3		Gary Stevens
1994	Brocco		3		Gary Stevens
1993	Personal Hope		3		Gary Stevens
1992	A.P. Indy		3		Ed Delahoussaye
1991	Dinard		3		Chris McCarron
1990	Mister Frisky		3		Gary Stevens
1989	Sunday Silence		3		Pat Valenzuela
1988	Winning Colors		3		Gary Stevens
1987	Temperate Sil		3		Bill Shoemaker
1986	Snow Chief		3		Alex Solis
1985	Skywalker		3		Laffit Pincay, Jr.
1984	Mighty Adversary		3		Ed Delahoussaye
1983	Marfa		3		Jorge Velasquez
1982	Muttering		3		Laffit Pincay, Jr.
1981	Splendid Spruce		3		Darrel McHargue
1980	Codex		3		Pat Valenzuela
1979	Flying Paster		3		Donald Pierce
1978	Affirmed		3		Laffit Pincay, Jr.
1977	Habitony		3		Bill Shoemaker
1976	An Act		3		Laffit Pincay, Jr.
1975	Avatar		3		Jorge Tejeira
1974	Destroyer		3		Ismael Valenzuela
Year		Winner		Second		Third	Fourth	Starters
2013		Orb		Golden Soul
2012		I'll Have Another		Bodemeister
2011		Animal Kingdom		Nehro
2010		Super Saver		Ice Box
2009		Mine That Bird		Pioneerof the Nile
2008		Big Brown		Eight Belles
2007		Street Sense		Hard Spun
2006		Barbaro		Bluegrass Cat
2005		Giacomo		Closing Argument
2004		Smarty Jones		Lion Heart
2003		Funny Cide		Empire Maker
2002		War Emblem		Proud Citizen
2001		Monarchos		Invisible Ink
2000		Fusaichi Pegasus		Aptitude
1999		Charismatic		Menifee
1998		Real Quiet		Victory Gallop
1997		Silver Charm		Captain Bodgit
1996		Grindstone		Cavonnier
1995		Thunder Gulch		Tejano Run
1994		Go for Gin		Strodes Creek
1993		Sea Hero		Prairie Bayou
1992		Lil E. Tee		Casual Lies
1991		Strike the Gold		Best Pal
1990		Unbridled		Summer Squall
1989		Sunday Silence		Easy Goer
1988		Winning Colors		Forty Niner
1987		Alysheba		Bet Twice
1986		Ferdinand		Bold Arrangement
1985		Spend A Buck		Stephan's Odyssey
1984 *		Swale		Coax Me Chad
1983		Sunny's Halo		Desert Wine
1982		Gato Del Sol		Laser Light
1981		Pleasant Colony		Woodchopper
1980		Genuine Risk		Rumbo
1979		Spectacular Bid		General Assembly
1978		Affirmed †		Alydar
1977		Seattle Slew †		Run Dusty Run
1976		Bold Forbes		Honest Pleasure
1975		Foolish Pleasure		Avatar
1974		Cannonade		Hudson County

[harthebar]

I think i counted 3 in the last 30 years , also i read a stat, its said the top 3 horses that had the fastest times in any of the prep races, im talking about bias and the overall deal. Had like a 80% chance of winning derby, do you know who the 3 would be, i dont

anyway , would like to see more, what is your web site again, got a question, how many horses that won the santa anita derby, won the kentucky derby,

year	winner		age		jockey
2014	california chrome		3		victor espinoza
2013	goldencents		3		kevin krigger
2012	i'll have another		3		mario gutierrez
2011	midnight interlude		3		victor espinoza
2010	sidney's candy		3		joe talamo
2009	pioneerof the nile		3		garrett gomez
2008	colonel john		3		corey nakatani
2007	tiago		3		mike e. Smith
2006	brother derek		3		alex solis
2005	buzzards bay		3		mark guidry
2004	castledale		3		jose valdivia, jr.
2003	buddy gil		3		gary stevens
2002	came home		3		chris mccarron
2001	point given		3		gary stevens
2000	the deputy		3		chris mccarron
1999	general challenge		3		gary stevens
1998	indian charlie		3		gary stevens
1997	free house		3		kent desormeaux
1996	cavonnier		3		chris mccarron
1995	larry the legend		3		gary stevens
1994	brocco		3		gary stevens
1993	personal hope		3		gary stevens
1992	a.p. Indy		3		ed delahoussaye
1991	dinard		3		chris mccarron
1990	mister frisky		3		gary stevens
1989	sunday silence		3		pat valenzuela
1988	winning colors		3		gary stevens
1987	temperate sil		3		bill shoemaker
1986	snow chief		3		alex solis
1985	skywalker		3		laffit pincay, jr.
1984	mighty adversary		3		ed delahoussaye
1983	marfa		3		jorge velasquez
1982	muttering		3		laffit pincay, jr.
1981	splendid spruce		3		darrel mchargue
1980	codex		3		pat valenzuela
1979	flying paster		3		donald pierce
1978	affirmed		3		laffit pincay, jr.
1977	habitony		3		bill shoemaker
1976	an act		3		laffit pincay, jr.
1975	avatar		3		jorge tejeira
1974	destroyer		3		ismael valenzuela
year		winner		second		third	fourth	starters
2013		orb		golden soul
2012		i'll have another		bodemeister
2011		animal kingdom		nehro
2010		super saver		ice box
2009		mine that bird		pioneerof the nile
2008		big brown		eight belles
2007		street sense		hard spun
2006		barbaro		bluegrass cat
2005		giacomo		closing argument
2004		smarty jones		lion heart
2003		funny cide		empire maker
2002		war emblem		proud citizen
2001		monarchos		invisible ink
2000		fusaichi pegasus		aptitude
1999		charismatic		menifee
1998		real quiet		victory gallop
1997		silver charm		captain bodgit
1996		grindstone		cavonnier
1995		thunder gulch		tejano run
1994		go for gin		strodes creek
1993		sea hero		prairie bayou
1992		lil e. Tee		casual lies
1991		strike the gold		best pal
1990		unbridled		summer squall
1989		sunday silence		easy goer
1988		winning colors		forty niner
1987		alysheba		bet twice
1986		ferdinand		bold arrangement
1985		spend a buck		stephan's odyssey
1984 *		swale		coax me chad
1983		sunny's halo		desert wine
1982		gato del sol		laser light
1981		pleasant colony		woodchopper
1980		genuine risk		rumbo
1979		spectacular bid		general assembly
1978		affirmed †		alydar
1977		seattle slew †		run dusty run
1976		bold forbes		honest pleasure
1975		foolish pleasure		avatar
1974		cannonade		hudson county

[BGboothA]

I am also working on some positive trend data that we will publish tomorrow. Once you add those two data strings together things get really really interesting.

Four horses pop out on top....I bet you can't guess which four they are. Two I didn't see coming...two I did.

[TonyP]

wonder how the data is going to stack up with the new point system?

[BGboothA]

Who knows...but really it hasn't changed that much. I honestly think we are getting a much higher quality field overall. Maybe not the winners as of late, but the last 4-7 in are much better than they were in the old system.

Harder to toss some of these guys than it was back when the likes of Trinniberg where trying two turns for the first time in the derby.

[BGboothA]

Earlier we looked at the Negative Kentucky Derby trends and tried to eliminate horses, but what about the positive angles that are alive on Derby day. A forum user on a number of horse race forums over the years named MoneyLineExpress posts every year with some of his criteria for making a solid Derby horse. He has been able to narrow down his list to a short list of 5 that has included the Derby winner in it each time I have read it. I have used some of those criteria for this purpose here.

• Give a point to any horse that won a mile of longer as a 2 year old.
  • Wicked Strong
  • Samraat
  • Intense Holiday
  • We Miss Artie
  • Tapiture
  • Medal Count
  • Candy Boy
  • Uncle Sigh
  • Commanding Curve
  
  
• Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
  • California Chrome
  • Vicar’s in Trouble
  • Dance With Fate
  • Wicked Strong
  • Samraat
  • Danza
  • Candy Boy
  • Hoppertunity
  • Intense Holiday
  • We Miss Artie
  • Ride On Curlin
  • Chitu
  • Medal Count
  • Commanding Curve
  
  
• Give points to horses which raced against grades stakes competition prior to the 100 point prep races that began on Marth 28th as 3 year olds.
  • California Chrome
  • Vicar’s in Trouble
  • Dance With Fate
  • Wicked Strong
  • Samraat
  • Hoppertunity
  • Intense Holiday
  • WildCat Red
  • We Miss Artie
  • Ride On Curlin
  • Chitu
  • Tapiture
  • Ring Weekend
  • General A Rod
  • Medal Count
  • Candy Boy
  • Cairo Prince
  • Uncle Sigh
  • Commanding Curve
  • Harry’s Holiday
  • Vinceremos
  
  
• Give a point to a hose that has won a graded stakes race.
  • California Chrome
  • Vicar’s in Trouble
  • Dance With Fate
  • Wicked Strong
  • Samraat
  • Danza
  • Hoppertunity
  • Intense Holiday
  • WildCat Red
  • We Miss Artie
  • Chitu
  • Tapiture
  • Ring Weekend
  • Medal Count
  • Candy Boy
  • Cairo Prince
  • Vinceremos
  
  
• The horses finish position in both of his last two starts was no worse than the position the horse was at when they hit the eigth pole.
  • California Chrome
  • Wicked Strong
  • Samraat
  • Danza
  • Hoppertunity
  • Intense Holiday
  • WildCat Red
  • Tapiture
  • Ring Weekend
  • General A Rod
  • Medal Count
  • Candy Boy
  • Cairo Prince
  • Uncle Sigh
  • Vinceremos

Who won?

Samraat	5
Intense Holiday	5
Medal Count	5
Wicked Strong	5
Candy Boy	5
California Chrome	4
We Miss Artie	4
Hoppertunity	4
Tapiture	4
Cairo Prince	4
Dance With Fate	3
WildCat Red	3
Vicar’s In Trouble	3
Chitu	3
Danza	3
Ring Weekend	3
*Commanding Curve	3
Uncle Sigh	3
*Vinceremos	3
Ride On Curlin	2
General A Rod	2
*Harry’s Holiday	1

[nvrlose37]

I do like Samraat as the type of Hard Spun talent. Maybe not to win but to hang in there for second possibly after leading the field for most of the race.

[mrginandtonic]

Interesting data BG, so if we combined the positive and negative, the list only include: Samraat, Intense Holiday and Medal Count.

[JBEX]

Like what you have here to booth.. Early lean on Intense Holiday
for me but like to see all the pp's in front of me and of course the
post position draws to commit. If he draws a decent post have a
hunch that I won't switch but we'll see

[BGboothA]

Like what you have here to booth.. Early lean on Intense Holiday
for me but like to see all the pp's in front of me and of course the
post position draws to commit. If he draws a decent post have a
hunch that I won't switch but we'll see

Yeah I have been on IH for a while now. THe post draw is huge in this 20 horse feild, so I won't do much for sure until then. But IH is one I will have to include most likely.

[rabrown36]

Santa Anita Derby 1:47

I know that majority of people will tell you that times don't matter and that you cannot compare times from day to day, year to year etc.. Personally I do not 100% agree with this when it comes to stake races. Here is an example of what I am talking about. I am going to use the Santa Anita Derby and talk about the horses that ran 1:47 for a mile 1/8th. I am going to go back to 1973.

1973- Sham - 1:47:00, ran 2nd in the derby.
1975- Avatar-1:47:60, ran 2nd in the derby.
1980-Codex - 1:47:60, Was not nominated to the derby. Accidentally nominated to the Preakness by Jeff Lucas, beat the derby winner by 4.5.
1982-Muttering-1:47:60, ran 5th in the derby.
1988-Winning Colors, 1:47:80, won the derby.
1989-Sunday Silence, 1:47:60, won the derby.
1995-Larry the Legend,1:47:99, got hurt, did not run in derby.
1997-Free House,1:47:60, ran 3rd in the derby.
1998-Indian Charlie, 1:47:00, ran 3rd in the derby.
2001- Point Given, 1:47:77, ran 5th in the derby, won the Preakness and Belmont.
2012-I'll Have Another,1:47:88, Won the Derby, Preakness, did not run in the Belmont.
2014-California Chrome, 1:47:52, ??????????

So not counting California Chrome, since 1973 we have had 11 horses run 1:47 while winning the Santa Anita Derby.
Out of those 11, 3 of them won the derby, 2 others came 2nd in the derby, 2 others came 3rd in the derby, 2 others 5th in the derby, while two did not run. You also have 4 Preakness winners and 2 Belmont winners.

So what does all this mean? History tells me that not just any horse runs 1:47 in the Santa Anita Derby, it takes a special horse to do so.


FYI
1:48:00 in the Santa Anita Derby
1976, An Act, Did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Could not find any info why.
1978, Affirmed. Triple Crown Winner
1979, Flying Pastor. 5th in the Derby. Born the wrong year.
2006, Brother Derek. Dead heat for 4th in the derby.


Personally, Every year when the Santa Anita Derby is run the time means everything to me. IF a horse on what most will call a speed favoring fast track does not run 1:48 flat or lower I TOSS them.

Here are some examples since I have been betting.
1999, General Challenge, 1:48:92
2000, The Deputy, 1:49:08
2002, Came Home, 1:50:02
2003, Buddy Gil, 1:49:36
2004, Castledale,1:49:24
2005, Buzzards bay,1:49:18. Ran 5th in the Derby. Actually a better race than I expected.
2007, Tiago, 1:49:51
2011, Midnight Interlude, 1:48:56
2013, Goldencents, 1:48:78

The synthetic years were left out.

[mrginandtonic]

I know that majority of people will tell you that times don't matter and that you cannot compare times from day to day, year to year etc.. Personally I do not 100% agree with this when it comes to stake races. Here is an example of what I am talking about. I am going to use the Santa Anita Derby and talk about the horses that ran 1:47 for a mile 1/8th. I am going to go back to 1973.

1973- Sham - 1:47:00, ran 2nd in the derby.
1975- Avatar-1:47:60, ran 2nd in the derby.
1980-Codex - 1:47:60, Was not nominated to the derby. Accidentally nominated to the Preakness by Jeff Lucas, beat the derby winner by 4.5.
1982-Muttering-1:47:60, ran 5th in the derby.
1988-Winning Colors, 1:47:80, won the derby.
1989-Sunday Silence, 1:47:60, won the derby.
1995-Larry the Legend,1:47:99, got hurt, did not run in derby.
1997-Free House,1:47:60, ran 3rd in the derby.
1998-Indian Charlie, 1:47:00, ran 3rd in the derby.
2001- Point Given, 1:47:77, ran 5th in the derby, won the Preakness and Belmont.
2012-I'll Have Another,1:47:88, Won the Derby, Preakness, did not run in the Belmont.
2014-California Chrome, 1:47:52, ??????????

So not counting California Chrome, since 1973 we have had 11 horses run 1:47 while winning the Santa Anita Derby.
Out of those 11, 3 of them won the derby, 2 others came 2nd in the derby, 2 others came 3rd in the derby, 2 others 5th in the derby, while two did not run. You also have 4 Preakness winners and 2 Belmont winners.

So what does all this mean? History tells me that not just any horse runs 1:47 in the Santa Anita Derby, it takes a special horse to do so.


FYI
1:48:00 in the Santa Anita Derby
1976, An Act, Did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Could not find any info why.
1978, Affirmed. Triple Crown Winner
1979, Flying Pastor. 5th in the Derby. Born the wrong year.
2006, Brother Derek. Dead heat for 4th in the derby.


Personally, Every year when the Santa Anita Derby is run the time means everything to me. IF a horse on what most will call a speed favoring fast track does not run 1:48 flat or lower I TOSS them.

Here are some examples since I have been betting.
1999, General Challenge, 1:48:92
2000, The Deputy, 1:49:08
2002, Came Home, 1:50:02
2003, Buddy Gil, 1:49:36
2004, Castledale,1:49:24
2005, Buzzards bay,1:49:18. Ran 5th in the Derby. Actually a better race than I expected.
2007, Tiago, 1:49:51
2011, Midnight Interlude, 1:48:56
2013, Goldencents, 1:48:78

The synthetic years were left out.

Nice info.

[rabrown36]

How important is that workout over the track? Just looking back to 2001-2013, horses that finished in the Super, how many of them actually had a work over the track? The answer


49 out of 52 or 94%



The 3 that did not workout over the track, but still manage to hit the board in the Derby are Ironically 3 horses that won the derby.

Funny Cide
Giacomo
I'll Have Another

[Draynay]

Not having a workout over the track is a mistake but the weather may change everything. A week out and it looks like cool weather with plenty of rain which gives other horses new life. Samraat is a monster when it is wet and Uncle Sigh, ROC, Hoppertunity and Wicked Strong will also enjoy the water. Not only will PP's be very important but how wet the track is will make a huge difference come Derby Day.

[TonyP]

heard Hoppertunity had a solid work