Here we go, it’s about that time in the Road to the Kentucky Derby that we start putting together our top Derby horse lists, we will do the same. As always, we like to be a little different here are our top 6 Kentucky Derby horses as of February 24th. Pool three opens Friday, let’s take a look at who we think has a chance to take some of our money this weekend.
INTERNATIONAL STAR - An obvious choice thus far sitting on top of our list already with 71 points in the prep schedule and coming off a nice win in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds this past weekend. A nice win over what looks at this point as a semi-quality field, although I am not sure that many of these other horses are going to be around come the first weekend in May. Still a nice run through some traffic that included a solid move entering the turn led to an easy one-length win in the first 50 point derby prep races of the season. If you add the Risen Star win on top of his Lecomte win back in January this is a horse that has beaten the same field easily twice now. I am excited to see what he will do against a tougher field next time out, as he is more than likely pointed toward the Louisiana Derby. He already has more than enough points to qualify for a starting spot in the Derby. He closed pool two at 44-1 and it will be interesting to see what he comes out at in pool 3 this weekend.
FAR FROM OVER - Currently only sitting with 10 points thus far in the prep season, but this is simply my personal favorite. His run in the Withers was without a doubt the best single race I have seen this year, by any horse let alone a young three year old. He stumbled horribly out of the gate and gave a good 10+ lengths to a quality field settled down nicely and finished strong to win the race. But it wasn’t the win that really has me excited, watch the replay of this race and you will see the jockey Manuel Franco pressing him and going to the stick with three furlongs to go. This is a red flag to some, but most horses who get the whip that early have nothing to offer down the stretch, instead this horse started to pick off horses the second he was asked to move. The other thing to keep in mind with this race was the pace, it wasn’t as though FFO was picking off horses that were tired, this was a quality field that ran the half in 47:95, plenty of speed up front to keep him near the rear, but they weren’t able to. As the entered the stretch FFO was down along the rail and looked to be pinned made a nice move through some traffic and pulled away to win by a more than a length. Thus far he is an impressive 2-2 and will likely make his next start in the Gotham stakes in a couple of weeks at Aqueduct. He would have been 5/2 as part of the field in pool 2, but will likely be worth a look coming up in pool 3.
FAR RIGHT - This is an interesting colt and will be sitting on our list after an impressive win at Oaklawn this weekend in the Southwest Stakes. Here is another horse that I am excited to see take on some stiffer competition in the coming month or so as he has shown the ability to beat a similar field twice in a row in the Southwest and in the Smarty Jones. The impressive thing about this horse is his ability to move through some traffic. His race in the Smarty Jones back in January was impressive in the way he was able to move through horses coming into the stretch, most young three year olds have a hard time splitting horses and pulling through, but Far Right made it looks easy and then came back from an impressive run to win again. Looks like he will be pointing toward the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in early April. He was sitting at nearly 50-1 in pool 2 and will likely be a good price in pool 3.
AMERICAN PHAROAH - Its probably crazy to have a horse on this list that hasn’t ran in a race since the end of September, but this is a horse that looked absolutely amazing at the age of 2 before dealing with the injury that kept him out. He looks to return in a couple weeks in the Rebel Stakes and could get an exciting field to make a comeback against. The pedigree on this horse is absolutely stunning and Baffert seems to be able to get a horse ready come prep season. He has been working out well the last couple of weeks. I am really interested to see where he is on the pool three odds and could really get a nice price on a horse that could come back to be one of the favorites in May.
OCHO OCHO OCHO - Another horse that missed some time due to injury, but this is an impressive horse that is undefeated in 3 starts and will be making his return in a couple of weeks at the San Felipe Stakes at his home track Santa Anita. He only has 10 points in the prep season with a win at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot, but he beat some quality horses including a horse higher on this list in Far Right. He also had an impressive win on the undercard of the Breeders Cup races in the Juvenile Turf Sprint that was moved to the dirt that he won by more than 5 lengths. He was 26-1 at the close of pool 2, and I would love to see if we can get him closer to 30-1 in pool 3 and will be well worth the bet.
DORTMUND - Another west coast undefeated horse who is a perfect 4-4 including a nice start on the Churchill Downs Dirt back in November. The problem here is the complete lack of quality fields that he has faced thus far in his journey. His win in the beginning of February in the Robert B Lewis was impressive, but beating Firing Line and Rock Shandy just doesn’t boost my confidence in him. Connections have been pretty quiet on where they are pointing him next, but he will likely meet Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Santa Anita Derby in April. I would expect him to run again coming soon in the next couple of weeks as well. This is a colt that I feel will likely be over bet in pool 3 due to his undefeated record, and he could be the real thing, I just don’t know yet.
Honorable Mentions
TEXAS RED - The injury is the only reason he is not halfway up this list. He is coming off a 2nd place finish in a tough 7f sprint that he would have won easily had he had any more distance. His win the in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was more than impressive, but the injury could keep him off the trail for a while and will likely need a 2nd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby in April to have a shot at the field.
MR JORDAN - Who? Watch out for this horse in the coming months at Gulfstream. Undefeated in three impressive starts at two years old this horse may have had a more impressive 2-year old campaign than American Pharoah and just got back on the workout trail this week. Many sources say he is off the Derby trail, but we will see how he works out in the coming weeks. I wouldn't surprise to see him jump into the Bluegrass or another late prep race and try to sneak into the gates in May.
INTERNATIONAL STAR - An obvious choice thus far sitting on top of our list already with 71 points in the prep schedule and coming off a nice win in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds this past weekend. A nice win over what looks at this point as a semi-quality field, although I am not sure that many of these other horses are going to be around come the first weekend in May. Still a nice run through some traffic that included a solid move entering the turn led to an easy one-length win in the first 50 point derby prep races of the season. If you add the Risen Star win on top of his Lecomte win back in January this is a horse that has beaten the same field easily twice now. I am excited to see what he will do against a tougher field next time out, as he is more than likely pointed toward the Louisiana Derby. He already has more than enough points to qualify for a starting spot in the Derby. He closed pool two at 44-1 and it will be interesting to see what he comes out at in pool 3 this weekend.
FAR FROM OVER - Currently only sitting with 10 points thus far in the prep season, but this is simply my personal favorite. His run in the Withers was without a doubt the best single race I have seen this year, by any horse let alone a young three year old. He stumbled horribly out of the gate and gave a good 10+ lengths to a quality field settled down nicely and finished strong to win the race. But it wasn’t the win that really has me excited, watch the replay of this race and you will see the jockey Manuel Franco pressing him and going to the stick with three furlongs to go. This is a red flag to some, but most horses who get the whip that early have nothing to offer down the stretch, instead this horse started to pick off horses the second he was asked to move. The other thing to keep in mind with this race was the pace, it wasn’t as though FFO was picking off horses that were tired, this was a quality field that ran the half in 47:95, plenty of speed up front to keep him near the rear, but they weren’t able to. As the entered the stretch FFO was down along the rail and looked to be pinned made a nice move through some traffic and pulled away to win by a more than a length. Thus far he is an impressive 2-2 and will likely make his next start in the Gotham stakes in a couple of weeks at Aqueduct. He would have been 5/2 as part of the field in pool 2, but will likely be worth a look coming up in pool 3.
FAR RIGHT - This is an interesting colt and will be sitting on our list after an impressive win at Oaklawn this weekend in the Southwest Stakes. Here is another horse that I am excited to see take on some stiffer competition in the coming month or so as he has shown the ability to beat a similar field twice in a row in the Southwest and in the Smarty Jones. The impressive thing about this horse is his ability to move through some traffic. His race in the Smarty Jones back in January was impressive in the way he was able to move through horses coming into the stretch, most young three year olds have a hard time splitting horses and pulling through, but Far Right made it looks easy and then came back from an impressive run to win again. Looks like he will be pointing toward the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in early April. He was sitting at nearly 50-1 in pool 2 and will likely be a good price in pool 3.
AMERICAN PHAROAH - Its probably crazy to have a horse on this list that hasn’t ran in a race since the end of September, but this is a horse that looked absolutely amazing at the age of 2 before dealing with the injury that kept him out. He looks to return in a couple weeks in the Rebel Stakes and could get an exciting field to make a comeback against. The pedigree on this horse is absolutely stunning and Baffert seems to be able to get a horse ready come prep season. He has been working out well the last couple of weeks. I am really interested to see where he is on the pool three odds and could really get a nice price on a horse that could come back to be one of the favorites in May.
OCHO OCHO OCHO - Another horse that missed some time due to injury, but this is an impressive horse that is undefeated in 3 starts and will be making his return in a couple of weeks at the San Felipe Stakes at his home track Santa Anita. He only has 10 points in the prep season with a win at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot, but he beat some quality horses including a horse higher on this list in Far Right. He also had an impressive win on the undercard of the Breeders Cup races in the Juvenile Turf Sprint that was moved to the dirt that he won by more than 5 lengths. He was 26-1 at the close of pool 2, and I would love to see if we can get him closer to 30-1 in pool 3 and will be well worth the bet.
DORTMUND - Another west coast undefeated horse who is a perfect 4-4 including a nice start on the Churchill Downs Dirt back in November. The problem here is the complete lack of quality fields that he has faced thus far in his journey. His win in the beginning of February in the Robert B Lewis was impressive, but beating Firing Line and Rock Shandy just doesn’t boost my confidence in him. Connections have been pretty quiet on where they are pointing him next, but he will likely meet Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Santa Anita Derby in April. I would expect him to run again coming soon in the next couple of weeks as well. This is a colt that I feel will likely be over bet in pool 3 due to his undefeated record, and he could be the real thing, I just don’t know yet.
Honorable Mentions
TEXAS RED - The injury is the only reason he is not halfway up this list. He is coming off a 2nd place finish in a tough 7f sprint that he would have won easily had he had any more distance. His win the in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was more than impressive, but the injury could keep him off the trail for a while and will likely need a 2nd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby in April to have a shot at the field.
MR JORDAN - Who? Watch out for this horse in the coming months at Gulfstream. Undefeated in three impressive starts at two years old this horse may have had a more impressive 2-year old campaign than American Pharoah and just got back on the workout trail this week. Many sources say he is off the Derby trail, but we will see how he works out in the coming weeks. I wouldn't surprise to see him jump into the Bluegrass or another late prep race and try to sneak into the gates in May.
