CharlesTown Track Bias???

**sickeric** · 07-13-12, 06:08 AM

CT got like this (inside speed) last summer for around a month and was semi-profitable if you are a good pace/trip handicapper and understand jockey riding styles and strengths. on a side note, CT seems to always be more biased on the first day of the week they race. ( Thursdays in the summertime and Wednesday the other times of the year)

**str** · 07-13-12, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by sickeric

CT got like this (inside speed) last summer for around a month and was semi-profitable if you are a good pace/trip handicapper and understand jockey riding styles and strengths. on a side note, CT seems to always be more biased on the first day of the week they race. ( Thursdays in the summertime and Wednesday the other times of the year)

Guys,

Great catch !

As I explained in my Q and A thread a ways back, the bias is created during the dark days because they are using a non race day to grade the track. During one of those recent gradings, more inside dirt was taken than what would typically be taken. This was probably due to the heavy thunderstorms that this area has been getting lately. Heavier and stronger than a normal summer. When they hit and the rail has 3-3 1/2 inches of cushion, a typical amount, that cushion is washed away and usually, lost. The EPA has really cracked down on this in the last 5-10 years, meaning that they are fining tracks that allow too much silt to wash into the drain system. It is also pretty darn expensive to constantly add more dirt on short notice. The result is taking a little more cushion off the rail and pushing it further out towards the crown of the track. Again, my thread will shed more light on this subject. The difference of say, 1 inch would be huge, so keep looking . Also, the pitch of C.T. is not very severe at all. It will take longer for the dirt pushed up towards the crown of the track to work it's way back down the track to the rail , which is what happens with each pass of the harrows. Gravity eventually pulls it back down.
Three other things to remember.

1. Make sure they have done this to the chute also. The 4 1/2 races might not have the same bias until they cross over to the main track. That means , the outside horse could have just as much chance to gain the rail in the 1st 1/16th of a mile. Check for that.

2. See if closers can indeed close, but must get a rail trip to do so. The charts will help with this if replays are not available.

3. Keep track of those that get outside or "verses the bias" trips. If a horse was verses and then lands "with" the next time, you have a big edge that most can not see. I did a write up about a year ago in my Q and A about rating the track by date and adding those ratings to the form before I started handicapping. It only takes about 10 minutes to add ratings to a full card. I highly suggest doing that. You can find a ton of good prices.

Good luck !

**mikemca** · 07-13-12, 09:55 AM

I thought it was almost a given that any early speed is always a huge plus on bullrings.The only way closers have a chance is to make a big middle move and be within a length or two turning for home with momentum.

**BGboothA** · 07-13-12, 11:27 AM

Yes it has always been tough for closers to win at places like CharlesTown, but last night was something like I had never seen before...

**str** · 07-13-12, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by mikemca

I thought it was almost a given that any early speed is always a huge plus on bullrings.The only way closers have a chance is to make a big middle move and be within a length or two turning for home with momentum.

Actually it favors pure speed less than most bullrings. Horses can be wide and rally but if the rail is hot, none of that takes place.

**BGboothA** · 07-13-12, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

I was watching some replays of todays races, making my usual notes...when...

I noticed a huge bias at Charlestown.

7/10 races today were won basically wire to wire on the rail. In fact all 10 races where early pace horses in the 1 or 2 track from first turn to finish. Doesn't look like anyone had a chance coming from the outside down the stretch....

Play the E2 horses tomorrow @ Charlestown boys.

Race 1 = 4
Race 3 = 7
Race 5 = 12 (6-1)
Race 7 = 10/2 (2 = 8-1)
Race 9 = 7
Race 10 = 5 (5-1)

The 4 in race won, came in second by less than a head.
The 7 in race 3 won running away the whole time.

**BGboothA** · 07-13-12, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Race 5 = 12 (6-1)
Race 7 = 10/2 (2 = 8-1)

The 12 scratched in race 5...

But the 2, the 2 was a beautiful 33.20 winner, unfortunately I missed the 424 dollar exacta...but still a nice win....

I thought I was on my way to a nice pick4 with my

2,10/2,4,6,7,12/7/5,6,7

Why ohhh why didn't I use the ALL button in the 8th race!!!!!!!!!!

**BGboothA** · 07-14-12, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

I was watching some replays of todays races, making my usual notes...when...

I noticed a huge bias at Charlestown.

7/10 races today were won basically wire to wire on the rail. In fact all 10 races where early pace horses in the 1 or 2 track from first turn to finish. Doesn't look like anyone had a chance coming from the outside down the stretch....

Play the E2 horses tomorrow @ Charlestown boys.

Race 1 = 4 Finished 2nd at a short price (2.40/2.20)
Race 3 = 7 Won easily but again at a short price (
Race 5 = 12 (6-1) 12 was a scratch
Race 7 = 10/2 (2 = 8-1) 2 was a huge winner!!!! (33.40/12.00/10.80) WOOT WOOT
Race 9 = 7 Finished 2nd at a short price (2.60/2.20)
Race 10 = 5 (5-1)Another nice winner!! And I hit the exacta for 79.00 WPS paid (7.00/4.00/3.00)

Today was a good day!!!! Missed a couple of close ones, but nailed a couple of nice ones....Finished the day with a nice Win bet in the 7th and another nice exacta in the 10th...

Going to watch the replays now and see if we can hold this for tomorrow.

**BGboothA** · 07-14-12, 01:06 AM

Replay notes

Race 1 = 4 and 5 jumped out with the 4 on the rail, the 5 locked in the two hole....no one else really close, five took the lead down the stretch, with the 4 finishing a close second.....third was 4-5 lengths beat.

Race 2 = 3 jumped to the lead with the 8 on the rail...the four came from WAY WAY back to win this thing, on a fair pace 23.63/47.84 for 7 furlong race.....4 came flying up the stretch 4W.....hmmmm

Race 3 = 7 was 2W the whole race....finished easy...nothing telling here, a 1/2 shot should win easily going away.

Race 4 = 6/4 ran 1w/2w pretty much the entire race, with the 6 kicking away by a length on the stretch....

Race 5 = 2 came from 7 lengths back at the half way point, ended up winning 6 wide down the lane....

Race 6 = The 5 wins, and ran 4-5 W almost the whole race......hmmmm, it was a 7/5 horse that could have easily overcome some of that....

Race 7 = WOW, not what I expected to see...the 2 that I thought woudl fight for the lead, ran from WAY WAY back 9 lenghts at the half way point....but exploded 2W all the way around the turn and ran away by 8 lengths.......hmmmmm

Race 8 = #8 ran 2W the whole race, and pulled ahead, but was almost caught by the 4 coming down the stretch.

Race 9 = was on the rail, the whole way, was a few lengths back, but had a definite rail trip...fought a good fight down the lane...

Race 10 = 5 was first out, first the the rail, and was never caught.....

Not as definitive as I felt it was yesterday.....

**TonyP** · 07-14-12, 05:30 AM

Originally posted by mikemca

I thought it was almost a given that any early speed is always a huge plus on bullrings.The only way closers have a chance is to make a big middle move and be within a length or two turning for home with momentum.

I use to play CT and it was always mostly front end speed.