kentucky derby future pool 4 pp's (april 3-5)

[JBEX]

kind of fun with the derby moved to september to take a peek..going to post something later..feel free to weigh in

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-4

[JBEX]

no relatives named max lol




maxfield (12-1 saturday night)

by a kentucky derby winner (street sense)

dam sire (bernardini) won the preakness,jim dandy and the travers..

bernardini's dam sire (quiet american)
is the sire of real quiet who just missed winning the triple crown

2 for 2 as a 2yo (and overall)and both wins were routes..broke maiden at a mile at churchill and then followed with the grade 1 kee breeders futurity at 1 1/16

both races were closing from far back into avg to slightly slow paces..bad news is part of the reason for that was slow breaks



I like the package and since he hasn't started this year should be able to get him up to peak with th right timing..everybody's going to be approaching this prep-wise in a haphazard manor so playing field is kind of leveled out with that






max player (62-1 saturday night)

currently sitting at 62-1 while the other maxfield at 12-1..pretty straightforward if you look at his pp's why he's a contender.. I especially like the way he won the withers last @ 1/ 1/8 miles last out and harthebar agreed with me.. a horse made a premature move inside him before the clubhouse turn and he was forced (or decided) to go with him. was extremely wide and working hard around the turn into the stretch.. looked like he might give it up less than a furlong but found more and finished strong.. don't think derby distance will be a problem for him.. also like the fact he was chasing an honest pace (brisnet figs)

[Louisvillekid1]

I agree on maxfield, crazy #

charlton 8/1 my father bet ,

[JBEX]

I agree on maxfield, crazy #

charlton 8/1 my father bet ,

I think he'll be a little lower when it closes..charlatan should be the ml favorite but everything so obvious ..figures,baffert, $700k,2 for 2, won at 2 turns..just have to try to beat him

[Louisvillekid1]

I had charlton as my #2 behind tiz the law ( who I’m clearly biased of )

after nadal’s most recent , I’m just not sure

let’s remember the former hasn’t earned a point yet

[JBEX]

I guess it's more a matter of what's your criteria..I can't go obvious with this type of bet..want something that's at least a little buried..understand mine's undefeated but it was last year and trainer is not a big name national guy..

like to use some of the old school stuff like pedigree,winning at routes as a 2yo,winning at churchill..realize last 10-15 years thus has mattered less but I still think this is relevant stuff that just has gone a little cold of late

[Louisvillekid1]

I guess it's more a matter of what's your criteria..I can't go obvious with this type of bet..want something that's at least a little buried..understand mine's undefeated but it was last year and trainer is not a big name national guy..

it’s an invaluable handicapping trait , that I respect the hell of

I know a lot about the history, and extremely passionate

but just being slightly younger , I have so much learn

it’s what I love about this, re-evaluating my mistakes

I learn everyday

reading you and str’s and other’s process

I steal some form into my own style

much respect


like to use some of the old school stuff like pedigree,winning at routes as a 2yo,winning at churchill..realize last 10-15 years thus has mattered less but I still think this is relevant stuff that just has gone a little cold of late

Dam, on mobile and posted in your quote

[Louisvillekid1]

To add:

I wouldn’t categorize myself as new school , I’m a very old school person , turning 35 first week in may

Can’t teach that , need to be born into this great sport, for the most part

but I handicapp and wager totally different than the people that taught me

I love this sport like nothing else

just watched an American pharaoh doc , and was in tears each call

[Louisvillekid1]

I get lost every time I go to museum , in there for hours and been there like 20 times lol

[Louisvillekid1]

Lol one time I took a girl that I brought for the derby

she didn’t get it ,

We broke up after we landed back in philly

[JBEX]

Lol one time I took a girl that I brought for the derby

she didn’t get it ,

We broke up after we landed back in philly

that's great

[JBEX]

it's a great game and have been capping horses going back to the late 70's.. some of the things I look for aren't main-line techniques you'd find in a book.. but at the same time have a good understanding of the fundamentals and at least I think a good feel for the game.. nothing better than a hit after you've been going bad for a while.. understand with me it's not money

[Louisvillekid1]

it's a great game and have been capping horses going back to the late 70's.. some of the things I look for aren't main-line techniques you'd find in a book.. but at the same time have a good understanding of the fundamentals and at least I think a good feel for the game.. nothing better than a hit after you've been going bad for a while.. understand with me it's not money

I totally get it, and no respect lost ...

I know you cap the same , but a big part of long term success is control

something I’m taking a big step forward in

if anything it shows your passion bleeding through , even more so

your doing very well in the tracking

less than 16-18% over $1k risked with these rules

is breaking even minus the take out

impressive

as I mentioned before , I have my work cut out

and easy only minus like -24% that’s above average and he can get hot

I don’t play just for money, but it teaches lessons

too each their own ...

—— however I will say , every damn (I’d choose a harder adjective) handicapper on Tvg , should announce to people if they arent actually playing

if you don’t announce it, I have no respect , especially when they get crushed for weeks and then brag about some wins

it’s like a tout

you are nothing close to that


ultra respect and wish you had time for more write ups

so I can continue to learn



☝️—- love to see their ROI’s!!!


Us guys down here should work for them

[JBEX]

I totally get it, and no respect lost ...

I know you cap the same , but a big part of long term success is control

something I’m taking a big step forward in

if anything it shows your passion bleeding through , even more so

your doing very well in the tracking

less than 16-18% over $1k risked with these rules

is breaking even minus the take out

impressive

as I mentioned before , I have my work cut out

and easy only minus like -24% that’s above average and he can get hot

I don’t play just for money, but it teaches lessons

too each their own ...

—— however I will say , every damn (I’d choose a harder adjective) handicapper on Tvg , should announce to people if they arent actually playing

if you don’t announce it, I have no respect , especially when they get crushed for weeks and then brag about some wins

it’s like a tout

you are nothing close to that


ultra respect and wish you had time for more write ups

so I can continue to learn



☝️—- love to see their ROI’s!!!


Us guys down here should work for them

I'm just trying to get a good result overall.. it started as him tracking me, which I resisted on a few occasions because I feel it takes a significant sample size to prove something.. my avg odds usually winds up at about 8 or 9-1..i think it would take at least 1000 races conservatively to draw any conclusions to how good or bad somebody is.. believe it can be estimated with advance math but that's beyond my capabilities.. I didn't resist doing this because easy understands my view on so its harmless enough but I wouldn't track myself


in the end I don't view this as a competition.. I've got nothing at risk and even if I did it'd be chump change.. Iike to get good results in the forum and that's my motivation


I can definitely understand your feeling about tvg hosts disclosing that they don't play.. but at the end of the day they want to get good results and if customers win they'll have more to bet.. the motivation to win is the same as if they were playing imo

[Louisvillekid1]

I understand your motivation as well

it was a complimentary response

I’m motivated by competition

it makes me better


I could change title if you like

and track the play count

[Louisvillekid1]

However with the rules you guys made

risk does track it



cant fire $500 on a horse

[JBEX]

I understand your motivation as well

it was a complimentary response

I’m motivated by competition

I could change title if you like

and track the play count

no it's fine.. I think people on here understand my views on this.. proceed forward as is

[Louisvillekid1]

You aren’t acknowledging that I do as well

I can’t help but feel some , negative feelings

all love from my end

[JBEX]

However with the rules you guys made

risk does track it



cant fire $500 on a horse

it's actually good practice for money management skills.. maybe you get a feel for things doing this that you can carry forward to when you actually play for real money

[Louisvillekid1]

Every post I write during this

I’m betting real money



to clarify

[JBEX]

You aren’t acknowledging that I do as well

I can’t help but feel some , negative feelings

all love from my end

no negative feelings.. I know you get it as well

[Louisvillekid1]

Cheers

[JBEX]

Every post I write during this

I’m betting real money



to clarify

understand that

[trytrytry]

incredible that Churchill Downs Twin Spires did not refund pool 1-3 as its not the race they said it would be. scammed the parimutual public

handicapping based on who might actually make the first Sat in may and leaving out that would not be ready like MAxfield to get some value. and they keep the pool despite a 4 month delay and totally new eligibility points structure. just sick over that basically stealing

[JBEX]

incredible that Churchill Downs Twin Spires did not refund pool 1-3 as its not the race they said it would be. scammed the parimutual public

handicapping based on who might actually make the first Sat in may and leaving out that would not be ready like MAxfield to get some value. and they keep the pool despite a 4 month delay and totally new eligibility points structure. just sick over that basically stealing

you're 100% right about that..inexcusable

wasn't aware that on the link for the pp''s they keep track of the odds..guessing they just update it once in a while but maybe it is real time. .maxfield is 9-1 and that''s kind of low this far out..probably going to add another and it might be the other max (player)..he's up there in the 40's now I believe

[JBEX]

added another play to post 2



harthebar I know you watched the race so if you want to elaborate on max player or disagree with my description go right ahead.. this is more your area of expertise.. open to you also str if you happen to watch the race