kentucky derby future bet (pool 3)

**JBEX** · 01-22-23, 10:38 PM

$2 final prices

kingsbarns $67.48

recruiter $292.34

.

**JBEX** · 01-23-23, 08:59 PM

a lot of discussion in str's thread so leaving a link.. starts post 6177

Horse Racing questions and answers - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/horse-racing-betting/1068651-horse-racing-questions-answers-p177.html#post31118955

Talk horse handicapping, picks, matchups and your favorite horses and courses in the horse racing forum.

**JBEX** · 02-05-23, 10:49 AM

figure I'd continue with any further talk in here..actually saw this about a week ago and think it's interesting..there was south african sire with the same name..a son of galileo (one of the best all time sires as discussed in here quite often)..had an abbreviated euro career where he notched a group 1 win and other listed and group placings from an 8 race career
.. from 2 or 3 crops was doing excellent as a sire in before he passed away at 8 years old in 11/2019..

his name was also kingsbarns.. the one I have as a future bet was foaled about 2 months later in january of 2020..obvious not a coincidence and maybe a sign they're expecting good things..from what I can see connections are not the same

**JBEX** · 02-06-23, 06:47 PM

worth reminding that he didn't run on the weekend of this future bet so nobody got to see a good or bad performance to influence them

next future bet this weekend ...don't think he'll be running so if interested another opportunity to get involved before he makes start 2 (if you didn't previous time..posted about 5 hours before close)

did some pedigree stuff in str's thread (through link above)..worth adding dam sire is tapit who's son's have won 4 belmonts in the last 9 years in addition to flightline (no introduction necessary) who finished his career with two 10f wins in the pacific classic and breeders cup classic..add uncle mo on top and based on pedigree derby distance should not be a problem

**JBEX** · 02-07-23, 07:43 PM

current odds @ caesars 75-1

**Pigpen** · 02-12-23, 11:55 AM

Okay JB I just placed 3 wagers in this pool:

Disarm 47-1
Eyeing Clover 71-1
Practical Move 83-1

I have a little more wagered on Practical Move. Those are current odds Sunday morning. Good luck!!!!!!!

**JBEX** · 02-12-23, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Okay JB I just placed 3 wagers in this pool:

Disarm 47-1
Eyeing Clover 71-1
Practical Move 83-1

I have a little more wagered on Practical Move. Those are current odds Sunday morning. Good luck!!!!!!!

thanks pigpen..like disarm best amongst those 3..kingsbarns at 81-1 now ..bol

**JBEX** · 02-12-23, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

thanks pigpen..like disarm best amongst those 3..kingsbarns at 81-1 now ..bol

closed at 35-1..as mentioned in str's thread an easy win in an allowance race at tampa bay and that probably had a lot to do with the final odds

think it'll be tampa bay derby on 3/11 next

**Pigpen** · 02-14-23, 09:30 AM

Here are my pool 4 wagers:[IMG][/IMG]

**Pigpen** · 02-14-23, 09:32 AM

That filly took a bunch of $$$ in this pool. I wish Cave Rock was included to add some value to others.

**JBEX** · 02-14-23, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

That filly took a bunch of $$$ in this pool. I wish Cave Rock was included to add some value to others.

yeah wasn't even paying attention to that..nice specs all around but I agree 11-1 is crazy

**Pigpen** · 03-06-23, 08:20 AM

Hey JB I have Practical Move @ 83-1 for $3 and he won the San Felipe. I read an article where he looks to be headed to the SA Derby. I do not have much faith after watching Forte win the FOY Saturday. He looked very good. Good luck with Kingsbarns this weekend.

**JBEX** · 03-06-23, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Hey JB I have Practical Move @ 83-1 for $3 and he won the San Felipe. I read an article where he looks to be headed to the SA Derby. I do not have much faith after watching Forte win the FOY Saturday. He looked very good. Good luck with Kingsbarns this weekend.

nice win and certainly the sa derby makes sense for him..very conventional these days taking a big break after your 2yo season and starting with the 2nd leg of a major prep series.. you're sitting in a nice spot ,npi ,no matter how good "forte" is

horse racing nation says the next possible start for kingsbarns will be the louisiana derby on 3/25..I find it interesting should they choose this path and the complete opposite of what "practical move"is doing

kingsbarns..

broke his maiden 1st out at GP at the 1 turn mile in january..tough distance and layout especially for a debut

back in 4 weeks wins an alw at tampa bay impressively..but that's pretty easy

so if he goes in the louisiana derby that'll be a 6 week break
and then 7 weeks to the ky derby should he run well and they decide to do that (don't think they'd run in-between that)

imo ,factoring the type of races he was involved in and the spacing, that's a very light schedule approaching the ky derby .. todd must think a lot of the horse to condider running him off that series of preps

will be interesting to see what develops the next few weeks

bol pigpen

**JBEX** · 03-06-23, 08:27 PM

another important consideration is points eligibility and "practical move" would probably qualify just off his last win..obviously they are going to want to see something in the santa anita derby to go forward

if kingsbarns does run in the louisiana derby or any other final prep he's got a good chance to get enough points by finishing 2nd ..by last year's standards this would get him into the race

**Pigpen** · 03-07-23, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

another important consideration is points eligibility and "practical move" would probably qualify just off his last win..obviously they are going to want to see something in the santa anita derby to go forward

if kingsbarns does run in the louisiana derby or any other final prep he's got a good chance to get enough points by finishing 2nd ..by last year's standards this would get him into the race

I did not get to see Practical Move on Saturday so I went and watched the replay and he looked good finishing, looked to hit another gear nearing the finish. If he makes the Derby anything can happen. One other thing about this horse is Chad Brown bred the animal along with Head of Plains Partners.

I went back and looked at Kingsbarns dam and this is her second foal. Since she is out of Tapit that should give him some distance from that side, which is something I am sure you already know. I have not seen him run but looked at his results. I would like to see a bit more seasoning but he may be the goods. I hope he wins his next race and both are in the gate on the first Saturday in May!!!!!

**JBEX** · 03-07-23, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

I did not get to see Practical Move on Saturday so I went and watched the replay and he looked good finishing, looked to hit another gear nearing the finish. If he makes the Derby anything can happen. One other thing about this horse is Chad Brown bred the animal along with Head of Plains Partners.

I went back and looked at Kingsbarns dam and this is her second foal. Since she is out of Tapit that should give him some distance from that side, which is something I am sure you already know. I have not seen him run but looked at his results. I would like to see a bit more seasoning but he may be the goods. I hope he wins his next race and both are in the gate on the first Saturday in May!!!!!

thanks pigpen

interesting as I've never seen chad brown as a breeder or co-breeder ..i'm sure the fact he trained the sire has something to do with it although he was an auction purchase

even the 2nd dam sire on KB is extreme stamina and class so he has the bloodlines

your's is almost a certainty as long as he stays healthy but KB will need at least a 2nd next out to get there..this is where it gets real interesting for these bets..certainly nice at this point to have your's @ 83-1

**Jellymancan** · 03-07-23, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Hey JB I have Practical Move @ 83-1 for $3 and he won the San Felipe. I read an article where he looks to be headed to the SA Derby. I do not have much faith after watching Forte win the FOY Saturday. He looked very good. Good luck with Kingsbarns this weekend.

Big practical move fan. Put him in my stable after his first start. Forte does look stout, but the derby is always tough.

**JBEX** · 03-07-23, 11:04 PM

one other thing I feel is a positive of running in the louisiana derby (not official but seems to be shaping up that way) is it's run @ 1 mile 3/16 (preakness distance and a 1/16 further than the other major preps)..I think considering the spacing and light preps it would be good for him to go a little further for some extra bottom going into the derby

the last I will say about it until I hear official confirmation that it will be his next race

.

**Pigpen** · 03-08-23, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

Big practical move fan. Put him in my stable after his first start. Forte does look stout, but the derby is always tough.

So true. Look at last year. Richie broke a bunch of hearts in the verticals. Jelly, I am glad you picked him up to follow after his debut, give me a little confidence that he may be the goods. I hope he progresses on to the first Sat. in May.

**Pigpen** · 03-08-23, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

one other thing I feel is a positive of running in the louisiana derby (not official but seems to be shaping up that way) is it's run @ 1 mile 3/16 (preakness distance and a 1/16 further than the other major preps)..I think considering the spacing and light preps it would be good for him to go a little further for some extra bottom going into the derby

the last I will say about it until I hear official confirmation that it will be his next race

.

I love the distance of the La. Derby. That long stretch in N. Orleans will answer some questions. I sure hope he runs there. Looking forward to his next race.

**JBEX** · 03-08-23, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

I love the distance of the La. Derby. That long stretch in N. Orleans will answer some questions. I sure hope he runs there. Looking forward to his next race.

yes and possibly because it's the earliest of the major preps (don't consider tb derby one of them because of timing and distance) might have something to do with it being that extra 1/16th..as you said it will certainly be telling (if he goes there) how he handles it

**JBEX** · 03-09-23, 01:59 PM

just saw kingsbarns figure for that allowance at tampa bay (KY derby pool 5) and it was slowww! I know he won by almost 8 but still would've liked to see a lot higher number.. not sure I buy into "they did what they had to and it doesn't matter" school of thought.. put up a competitive or high figure under near perfect conditions.. I certainly wouldn't bet on him for this round

practical move ran solid figures in his last two

**JBEX** · 03-10-23, 09:19 AM

going to definitely take another over the weekend..waiting till late saturday to post it (get a look at the odds)..won't be the obvious 2 (forte or practical move) as no value in them at this stage

**JBEX** · 03-12-23, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

going to definitely take another over the weekend..waiting till late saturday to post it (get a look at the odds)..won't be the obvious 2 (forte or practical move) as no value in them at this stage

#18 hit show (37-1 @ noon)

#13 disarm (99-1) half unit

currently around 130-1 if I did the math right

will update final odds tonight

**batt33** · 03-12-23, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

#18 hit show (37-1 @ noon)

#13 disarm (99-1) half unit

currently around 130-1 if I did the math right

will update final odds tonight

Good luck! The best I've ever did was I'll have another and california chrome.... yep been awhile... and it looks like it again this year

**JBEX** · 03-12-23, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by batt33

Good luck! The best I've ever did was I'll have another and california chrome.... yep been awhile... and it looks like it again this year

thanks batt

never hit a future and funny cide my last derby winner ..long time

**Pigpen** · 03-13-23, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

#18 hit show (37-1 @ noon)

#13 disarm (99-1) half unit

currently around 130-1 if I did the math right

will update final odds tonight

Hey JB, I am glad you took a position on Disarm. I have him in the last pool but did not get the odds you have here. Have you heard what his next move is?

**JBEX** · 03-13-23, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

Hey JB, I am glad you took a position on Disarm. I have him in the last pool but did not get the odds you have here. Have you heard what his next move is?

hey pigpen

I'm going to look around the next few days or might be a week and see if I find anything on him

here are the final odds on some of the ones mentioned in here for pool 5

(boldface = bets)

forte (3-1)
practical move (12-1)
hit show (28-1)
kingsbarns (43-1)
disarm (60-1)

**Pigpen** · 03-13-23, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

hey pigpen

I'm going to look around the next few days or might be a week and see if I find anything on him

here are the final odds on some of the ones mentioned in here for pool 5

(boldface = bets)

forte (3-1)
practical move (12-1)
hit show (28-1)
kingsbarns (43-1)
disarm (60-1)

I just looked @ Horse Racing Nation and they have him pointed to the Arky Derby. Love his pedigree!!!

**JBEX** · 03-13-23, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by Pigpen

I just looked @ Horse Racing Nation and they have him pointed to the Arky Derby. Love his pedigree!!!

makes sense since that's were he ran last..pedigree is one of the things I needed to make him a play..the other is he was able to break his maiden at saratoga easily @ the tough distance of 7f ..that's a big sign of quality that might be carried forward if he's in shape to run his best race..

**Easy-Rider 66** · 03-25-23, 09:44 PM

so far so good on Kingbarns JBEX. see what happens. GL.

**JBEX** · 03-25-23, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

so far so good on Kingbarns JBEX. see what happens. GL.

thanks easy

unfortunately not nearly as good as it looked as fractions were ridiculously slow as was the final time..his most impressive race by far was his debut win at gulfstream..if he's able to win the derby off these last two races he truly is a special horse

.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 03-25-23, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

thanks easy

unfortunately not nearly as good as it looked as fractions were ridiculously slow as was the final time..his most impressive race by far was his debut win at gulfstream..if he's able to win the derby off these last two races he truly is a special horse

.

yeah in retrospect seemed like they were crawling up front. But he did draw away nicely. See what goes down.

**JBEX** · 03-25-23, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

yeah in retrospect seemed like they were crawling up front. But he did draw away nicely. See what goes down.

silver lining is he should be fresh ...last 2 races couldn't have taken much out of him..overall I think he'd have benefited more being used a little harder leading up to the derby..better than running a dud though

.