Predicteform Analysis for Pegasus Day from GP

[Easy-Rider 66]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]Race 13 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | $3,000,000 G1 Pegasus World Cup | 4YO+[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#1 Proxy
Bit fresh here just the one spin since July but that hasn’t been an obstacle in career. Three straight 80+ Finals. Previous 72+/80+ lines mean plenty of room for more sustained pace after that SOFT pattern so upgrade what you thought of the last performance. Not many in here hitting -10 dirt spreads so a possible late/sustained speed advantage here can help him overcome if he gets buried early.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#2 Simplification
Moved forward off the NPT in last so looks to be in a good spot condition-wise while also showing good development in ability with a nice spike from the FOY running line to what he’s doing now at the same trip. Bad news is there’s some others that have shown even more development in their 3yo to 4yo ability. Back to the good news, price offered should be plenty fair.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#3 Ridin With Biden
Habitual winner been doing his thing at Parx but waters are deep on the ship. Several of today’s opponents have visited and popped much better Final Figures there.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#4 White Abbario
Runner gets back to where he did his damage early in career after being well-travelled and finding it hard to catch a field he can best outside of Florida. There was a time when you’d be elated to be offered 10/1 but not looking so enticing now after being beat by rivals he’ll see today in three straight. In hindsight, might be in a better spot today if he would have stayed home and campaigned.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#5 Defunded
West coast shipper likely isn’t flying over to run a dud. Expect an honest try from the bell here. Good mix of speed and compression give this one options to handle several different race flows. Can’t imagine this one doesn’t take a decent chunk of support here and offer something close to co-favoritism.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#6 Art Collector
Capable to handle high sustained speed when at best. Question mark here at 119 days off as runner has needed a race a couple times in career when launching new campaigns. Tough to trust past his prime at 6yo with all others closer to the average racehorse peak of 4.5yo.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#7 Skippylongstocking
Sports a nice 75h/79 local win in last, worth something welcoming out-of-town shippers. Sure looked strong off that winter break and had plenty of durability throughout sophomore campaign so there’s foundation there to say he can handle this breakout performance off the break and show right back up again.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#8 Get Her Number
Cross out the slop try and it’s a big stretchout from ’22 campaign. Those sprint lines were nicely compressed, a positive for extra distance tries, so there’s something to like here experimenting with back to two turns for first time in a while. Decision may have been made to try this a long time ago because they’ve really been working him on the morning tab. Live longshot.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#9 Last Samurai
Shown just a touch more ability since the NPT/DTOP conditioning. Would have liked to see a bit more improvement out of that combo before taking on this spot but there’s enough there that this is probably one to watch going forward another day.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#10 Cyberknife
If indeed sent off with the most support, not the “got it in the bag” type of favorite we’ve seen in years past for this race. Recent history of this race has been dominated by heavy favorites when they’re present. In the couple editions where there was no horse under 2/1, the favorite failed. Runner was on a nice long sophomore campaign working up to the top condition that saw him take the Haskell and just miss the BC Dirt Mile in last half of the year. Now must show he can jump right back into top racing form after experiencing first lay-off of career. Sounds like a potential favorite I want to try and beat.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#11 Stilleto Boy
Best spins seem to be behind him with Final Figures far behind this field recently.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#12 O’Connor (CHI)
The local threat off a good-looking COMP/REV to start stateside career and now thrust into this confident spot even though failing first time against winners. Now that the “stateside bounce” is out of the way, look for possibility of seeing his best today. I find that local winners can sometimes offer nice overlays and get sent off as bomb longshots as everyone welcomes in shippers for big-name connections with their wagers.[/COLOR]

[Easy-Rider 66]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]Race 12 | Turf | 9 Furlongs | $1,000,000 G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf | 4YO+[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#1 Wit
If I needed a runner to overcome being buried on the rail and probably having to run a race inside to out, I’d want that runner to be off a TDL. The majority of good turf runners prompt PLOWs but only a slice of them ever trigger the powerful subset of that move, the TDL. That said, while the outlook here is improvement to a lifetime best, the question is whether a lifetime best will be good enough against this stacked group and what would constitute fair odds to ask for that improvement. To consider a win bet, I’m thinking double-digits for sure. For Pick N, would be a “must use” if you’re one without a stance in this race and spreading over several.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#2 Good Governance (GB)
Great price likely here. Bettors jumping ship just because this one leaves CB barn but maintains nice late kick. The race flow of that last one kept the first half of the field early the first half of the field late with this runner being the exception and passing rivals. [/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#3 Atone
Can’t quite seem to get that elusive graded stakes win always giving himself a chance but not quite able to reach the top of the pecking order. Interesting to see a turf horse littering the work tab with bullets and drawing a noticeable rider change.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#4 Hurricane Dream (FR)
Certainly possible this one could like the ship. Has often come up a bit short on softer ground overseas but now seeing the firm ground of U.S. turf, that added traction has possibilities for giving this one increased acceleration late. Obstacle though is that if you’re running on from the back in France, then you’re running on from the back and then some in the US. [/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#5 One More Bid
Took a minute but found preferred spot when getting to grass and two turns. Moved off the PLOW to win first time against winners in an optimistic placing against graded stakes rivals. Takes another big shot up the ladder here and that’s where the line might have to be drawn. On the right path and one to watch after today but needs a lot of improvement with most of today’s rivals looking at 80+ Finals.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#6 Lady Speightspeare
At first glance, she’s off the best Last Final Figure of the field with that 83 out of the BC event. Typically, it’s the type of quick capping spot where you like her based on “Bests” system but a spot like this rates a bit more complicated than that. The spot I’m talking about is runners on long campaigns scheduled to peak for a certain race, in this case the BC, and now we’re in January on while she’s probably still well-intentioned here, it’s kind of a “reset” type of spot which is where we end up getting the “bounce off the BC” fade angle so many cappers like to live by. Always been a solid runner but we’re asking her to repeat a huge performance and getting a fraction of the previous price so I’ll leave off.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#7 Speaking Scout
Tough one to like from a PF Pace Figure standpoint just never really getting close to what the top threats in here have ran. If you think he can push forward off that lifetime best last out, can take comfort runner has proven he can ship around and run well off the plane/trailer. Don’t think I’ll have room for him on my tickets though.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#8 Who’s The Star
Loves to win north of the border and been blowing up on the switch to tapeta. That new and exciting form may have more to do with the surface than current condition meaning unsure turf form is going to suddenly improve here on the switch back. Likely to be well outran early and have a lot of obstacles in the way of a late rush.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#9 Decorated Invader
Been a “consistent” horse over several years with little development any which way so the potential ceiling probably isn’t far up from his par. Got a favorable trip in 74/81 local spin and now it can only get tougher.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#10 Ivar (BRZ)
Always shows up with a consistent spattering of 80+ Finals and like to see that durability of stringing together those 3 fall races despite typically being one to spread them out. Has that BC bounce angle but this is probably one potential favorite I couldn’t bring myself to stand against. The 7-1-2-0 record of last couple years looks iffy however I also think Ivar boasts the best strength of schedule in here.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#11 Master Piece (CHI)
Nice little section of development with the PLOW and COMP preceding that big peak to a 74/83 upset victory in July. Has ran well first out for two other barns so why not again today trying out Saffie’s training regimen now.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--wt-text-on-background-color) !important]#12 City Man
Winning ways describes current condition as presser has been overtaking them late seemingly at will. It’s hard to win 4 races in a row is the only reason I can think of you wouldn’t use this one. Not a very good reason.[/COLOR]

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[Easy-Rider 66]

Some good info above IMO. Take it for what it's worth. The site is big on pace figures. Good luck to all Playing GP.

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for info; taking a shot at Simplification for Pegasus for HT; it will be a good price… lol

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thanks for info; taking a shot at Simplification for Pegasus for HT; it will be a good price… lol

OK Mr. G&T good luck with Simplification. see what goes down?

[str]

Good Luck EZ !

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good Luck EZ !

THX STR but not playing GP today. just thought I would post some info I got from Prediicteform if anyone was interested. Look forward to spring racing. thx.