For the last 80 years or so people have tried repeatedly to sum up the performance of each horse for each race and convert it to a number.
Andy Beyer has probably done as good a job of this as anyone.The problem is, and Andy would be the first to tell you, once a number is assigned, the question looms as to why the horse earned that number. Without a further explanation which will require watching replays, assigning track biases when needed, reading charts or referring to notes you took when you saw the race, the number will mislead you as often as it will help.
For example, a horse that won and earned a 100 in his last race that got an easy solo lead on a rail that favored inside speed is probably not going to beat a horse that finished 2nd in a different race where he ran a 90 but did so in a the middle of a 3 horse duel and the 2 horses he dueled with finished well back on a track that was even or favored closers.
Beyer numbers are a tool. If used properly, they CAN help somewhat with the process (although I never used them and never will, but that's just me). The problem is, a lot of people do not use them correctly. They see the latest highest number and bet it.That is a complete misuse of the number.The return on investment(ROI) using blind highest Beyer's is roughly 1.80 on a 2.00 dollar bet.
That is actually pretty good, but as it stands, it is a losing proposition.
Other pitfalls for players are guys that use opening fractions from various tracks and try to identify the fastest horse. Example:A horse from Monmouth and a horse from Pimlico meet each other in a race and both want the early lead.The horse from Monmouth has run the first 1/2 of his last 2 races in 44 2/5 seconds and shared the lead both times. The horse from Pimlico has run his last 2 races also sharing the lead both times and cut the 1/2's in 45 1/5 seconds. Which horse is faster?
Seems as though the Monmouth horse is 4 lengths faster but my money would be on the Pimlico horse without hesitation to be the faster. Why? Because at Monmouth the electronic eye that starts the official timer is far enough away from the gate that the horses get a running start before the actual race time starts. At Pimlico, the eye is just past the gate and the horses get hardly any run into it before it starts. While Beyer numbers try to take these types of differences into consideration most speed figures do not.
The bottom line in all this is that their is no such thing as a shortcut when it comes to handicapping.You can not look at a single number and find enough winners to have a + ROI. That is why all horse racing systems will eventually fail. Like most everything in life, successful handicapping takes a lot of work and understanding of the variables that exist in a horse race. As a result, just like any form of betting, you should bet amounts that you can afford to lose and enjoy it for what it is. Hopefully, in the long run, you will win, but unless you do it for a living, you probably will not.
If you really want to learn the nuts and bolts of Beyer numbers you should get a copy of the book "Beyer on Speed". It was published in the 90's but it will explain how the numbers are assigned.
Best of Luck.
Andy Beyer has probably done as good a job of this as anyone.The problem is, and Andy would be the first to tell you, once a number is assigned, the question looms as to why the horse earned that number. Without a further explanation which will require watching replays, assigning track biases when needed, reading charts or referring to notes you took when you saw the race, the number will mislead you as often as it will help.
For example, a horse that won and earned a 100 in his last race that got an easy solo lead on a rail that favored inside speed is probably not going to beat a horse that finished 2nd in a different race where he ran a 90 but did so in a the middle of a 3 horse duel and the 2 horses he dueled with finished well back on a track that was even or favored closers.
Beyer numbers are a tool. If used properly, they CAN help somewhat with the process (although I never used them and never will, but that's just me). The problem is, a lot of people do not use them correctly. They see the latest highest number and bet it.That is a complete misuse of the number.The return on investment(ROI) using blind highest Beyer's is roughly 1.80 on a 2.00 dollar bet.
That is actually pretty good, but as it stands, it is a losing proposition.
Other pitfalls for players are guys that use opening fractions from various tracks and try to identify the fastest horse. Example:A horse from Monmouth and a horse from Pimlico meet each other in a race and both want the early lead.The horse from Monmouth has run the first 1/2 of his last 2 races in 44 2/5 seconds and shared the lead both times. The horse from Pimlico has run his last 2 races also sharing the lead both times and cut the 1/2's in 45 1/5 seconds. Which horse is faster?
Seems as though the Monmouth horse is 4 lengths faster but my money would be on the Pimlico horse without hesitation to be the faster. Why? Because at Monmouth the electronic eye that starts the official timer is far enough away from the gate that the horses get a running start before the actual race time starts. At Pimlico, the eye is just past the gate and the horses get hardly any run into it before it starts. While Beyer numbers try to take these types of differences into consideration most speed figures do not.
The bottom line in all this is that their is no such thing as a shortcut when it comes to handicapping.You can not look at a single number and find enough winners to have a + ROI. That is why all horse racing systems will eventually fail. Like most everything in life, successful handicapping takes a lot of work and understanding of the variables that exist in a horse race. As a result, just like any form of betting, you should bet amounts that you can afford to lose and enjoy it for what it is. Hopefully, in the long run, you will win, but unless you do it for a living, you probably will not.
If you really want to learn the nuts and bolts of Beyer numbers you should get a copy of the book "Beyer on Speed". It was published in the 90's but it will explain how the numbers are assigned.
Best of Luck.
