I think we agree with one another here. I was talking generically about rabbits; I'll handicap the race soon but right now I'm not sold there is a rabbit there --- your example of Noble Indy could very well be a horse that thinks that if he can get a lead and cruise, he might go all the way on top. Yes, the "public" can be quite silly at times, I agree. Reaction without thinking, rash, blowhard-y, etc. Especially in the modern social media age.
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No I did not. Had to look it up. Seems the owner ( Coolmore) orchestrated that with different trainers. Apparently it was to soften up the favorite but the whole thing seemed to backfired. Here is the link if you are interested. It talks about several different times this tactic has been used and most of them were a failure.
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Thx for the link STR. Yeah they wanted to soften up Bellamy Road and it backfired as their horses got cooked too. Hopefully somebody tries to soften up Justify on Sat. If not, may be a walk in the park for him.Comment -
I am really questioning if he can control himself energy wise to get this distance. There were reports of him bucking on the track right after his work the other day. That is reminiscent of Funny Cide who cooked himself getting all worked up before and early on in the Belmont wanting to run off.
The more I hear, the more I get the feeling that the only horse that Justify has to beat is Justify. And I am really starting to doubt that he can at this distance.Comment -
hey str.. you'll probably see this after the race has already been run but king leatherbury has a horse at belmont R5 #10 chateau de vizille.. hardly ever see him up here...its a turf marathon and I like the horse.. on the bottom he's out of a blushing john mare.. haven't seen that name for a while.. the average winning distance for blushing john's progeny is 8.9f which is the longest I've ever seen for any north american sire.. he'd been running middle distance leading up to this raceComment -
Do you guys have any big undercard plays for Saturday?Comment -
hey str..
I know I've asked you similar questions before but was wondering what you think army mules path might be if he's feeling like his old self again.. 3/3 winning by a combined 22 lengths with the last being by open lengths I the G1 carter hcp.. at saratoga 2nd to last week the forego
@ 7f and final week the woodward @1⅛.. taking into account pletcher said he thinks he'll go a distance would you even consider running him in the woodward or it'd have to be the forego.. especially factoring in the carter might have taken something out of him.. I'm sure you'd concur with a horse like that he's not going unless he's 100%.. can't see him trying the woodward would you agree?Comment -
In this case, it is all up to Army Mule. I doubt Todd would even consider looking for a spot until he worked a few times. I would think he would start looking after his second 1/2 mile work whenever that is . With the fragility of the horse, it is day to day for at least the first 60-70 days of training. And if the timing is off, he might extend his vacation so he isn't ready to run in the winter. Don't know gulfstreams book at all as far as sprints go though.Comment -
str, did you see two turf horses (entered tomorrow) last out?
#7 A Raving Beauty in the Just a Game, looked great last out in the Beaugay and was first time Lasix. Might even be better, wondering what you think after a great performance there with first time ... does 2nd time get that energy boost or wired effect, too?
Also, #1 Robert Bruce in the Manhattan - 7 in a row, looks great, ran into pace last time though, hard to knock. I love the 8 Sadler's Joy there but the 1 1/4 might be a little too short, though he has a ton of pace to run into this time it seemsComment -
STR: Leaning Vino Russo for the Belmont. DO you think he's too much of a closer to score? I think you have stated before that you like more forwardly placed horses in the Belmont. Thx.Comment -
No, ?I did not see either race. I did look at the form on both. As for 1st time lasix, typically the horse that recieves first time lasix in a race has worked with it prior to running.
As for the effects of Lasix 1st time in a race, I easily ran over a hundred 1st time lasix in my time and I never saw a wired effect.
As for the energy boost, it is more like they feel comfortable to extend their energy to the max effort. If they ran previously and bled, and in order to be on most if not all lasix programs you must have bled in a race or a workout and been scoped and it documented by a vet, the best way I can describe the feeling that we see a horse exhibit is flu like symptoms. Not nausea and vomiting ( horses can't vomit ) but very run down, maybe listless or dull and mostly just miserable feeling that translates from their eyes and overall body language or appetite. So when they get lasix and do not have that bad feeling they gain the confidence they once had to run hard and exert max energy. Because most have worked with it prior to getting it 1st time in a race, they may have already regained confidence from the work. But if they do not fully improve 1st time most will 2nd time as it took a race for them to fully regain that confidence in not feeling like hell during and after a race. Kind of like a more skeptical person vs. a lees skeptical person.
In both these cases, I am confident that both of these worked early on, were scoped and some blood splatter was seen in the lungs, received lasix for workouts and were fully ready to run a 100% effort when they last raced.
It would be my opinion that both were well placed last time as evidenced by being 5-2 and 8-5 and I would expect both to run back to those efforts again today, all things being equal. They could improve some as well with both having a race over the track since coming here from Europe and Chile. Not so sure they will further improve from 2nd lasix because in all probability it is probably at least 3rd time and maybe 4th time lasix for both.
Sadlers Joy will always be at the mercy of pace. He might get some today but 1 1/4 is , as you mentioned, not his preferred distance. What a really nice horse he is though.
Good luck today Stackin.Comment -
He looks too me like a horse that will try and 24 and change you to death. For this race, that is a good thing. Unless the pace is crazy hot, which it usually is not in here, the horse that can lay 1,2, 3,4,5 and just 24 you all day is the horse that often times can win this race. That is what we seem to see most years. Todd knows this and might have been trying to set Vino Rosso up to be able to lay 5th and not too far back early. Of course pace will set up who lays where. If Justify has trouble rating kindly we might very well see horses come from further back. That seemed the case in the Wood when the pace setter smoked early in 22 4/5 and 46 and change. In that race the pace collapsed and Vino Rosso took full advantage. The question you have to ask yourself is, can Vino just go catch Justify and probably Noble Indy as well as others in front of him early or does he need them to all come back to him or run very evenly like Restoring Hope did in the Wood?
That is basically what you are betting on in all probability. If you think he can, your good.
He has some things going for him for sure. Todd does well in here off a Derby race. Great rider . Been there a month pointing for today. I would not talk you off him. He certainly has a chance.
I think it comes down to who can out plod who at this distance.
Personally, I have not made my mind up yet as to what I am doing but I will say that I have tried to throw him off my ticket and am finding it very hard to do. How's that for a backhanded compliment Lol.Comment -
I said earlier this week that I was looking for a bombs away scenario . If doing so, I have to throw out Justify . Under scenarios I have mentioned already it is not that hard . But it is hard to ignore certain things. He is tons the best. Period. Maybe not today at the distance but who is shocked if he walks the dog and never gets headed? I'm not.
So I will be playing an exacta box of 2,5,9,10. Yep JBEX, I will throw in Free Drop Billy. Throw out the Derby slopfest and he is half the price he is now at 25-1.
Restoring Hope , the 5 is 28-1. Bafferts other horse and the same thing here. Throw out the slopfest and he is half the price.
The 9 is Noble Indy. He should be close up early and ever since Palice Malice did it and we were there, I have a soft spot for blks. off in this race.
The deeper closer along with Vino Rosso and Hofburg is Blended Citizen. With the other two horses 6-1 I will opt for the 20-1 shot who wants to do the same thing.
So the 1.00 triple box will be 1,2,5,9,10 for 60.00 in case Justify can relax.
The exacta will be 2.00 box 2,5,9,10 for 24.00. This is in case Justify runs out and we run 1,2,and not 3rd for a box car triple. At least we will have a very healthy exacta if we are so close. It's worth it to me for the sanity factor. Lol.
Good luck everybody. Hope someone hits !Comment -
Str is it common for these ownership groups to have several horses in this type of race? I know it happens but man it seems like I’m hearing a lot about how one horse or another might not do what suits him best in this race because he owned by same group as another and it would hurt that horses chances. Maybe I’m naive but seems that really sucks!
Appreciate all your thoughts as don’t have 1st clue how to cap the ponies so always just rely on reading as many things I can then just picking and choosing what sounds the best to me! Lol. Gl on your action!!Comment -
So what did you think about the Belmont STR? Restoring Hope goes wide early? Looked liked Vino had Justify in his sights and flattened out or something. The horse with the grass/synthetic pedigree come in 2nd. Observations from your view? Thx.Comment -
You are not naive 2daBank, it does suck. In my time training, early in my career it was not common at all. But as we got into the 80's some partnerships started to emerge, led by Wayne Lukas. By the 90's it was catching on and it has become more and more common since.
The other problem that has accentuated this issue is the "super trainer" phenomenon. By that I mean one trainer with access to 200 horses of which he chooses the top 40 for his main barn , the next 40 for his 2nd string and sends away the bottom 100 or so to other trainers but they can stay in his name or be transferred back to his main strings if they improve. Now add to that the idea that when a horse flashes brilliance early on, big money can be offered to smaller stables. Money that is larger than it should be in actuality. It is hard to say no to a larger than reasonable price. Typically , if purchased , the horse will be in a syndicate, which is why they can over pay, and go to a top 5 trainer in the country.
The syndicate thing is at an all time high and I see no end in sight . So while my answer would have been no a couple of decades ago today the answer is yes, and we better start getting used to it.
There was a time when a trainer HAD to be in the paddock to saddle his own horse no less than every other day. If not, the horses were required to run in another trainers name. But that rule changed in the 80's which allowed guys to train 150 plus horses at a time at multiple tracks and not actually be there.
I will be talking about the race itself with the next question from EASY if you care.
Thanks for the question 2daBank. Hope it helped. And I want to say to you that when I was first here years ago, I spent a lot of time in players talk. We joined about the same time. But after a couple of years, and maybe it's me, it seemed to change and a lot of trolling set in. Between the politics and the constant arguing, I lost interest in PT.
I rarely post there anymore and glance through some threads but when I see you have posted in one, I almost always read what you have to say. I have always respected your opinion, especially in baseball and football and you are as good as PT has to offer. If I counted on one hand who is worth a read there, you would certainly be on that list.
Keep up the good work sir, and if you ever want to discuss anything, horses or not, let me know. I will hope to offer whatever insight I might have. Go Cards.Comment -
Q. So what did you think about the Belmont STR?
A. Justify walked the dog and the race was over at the halfway mark. I commented to the others I watched it with that all they had to do was keep an eye on the clock. I told them that if he gets the first half in 48 or slower he's in great shape. He cut 48.
Then I said if he gets 3/4's in 1:12 and change he was fine. He cut 1:13 1/5. That is when the race was over in my mind. He had relaxed, settled , and was clear. It was over at that point which was half way down the backside.
Q. Restoring Hope goes wide early?
A. Restoring Hope was full of run early. He was running off. The only way to keep him off of Justify was to swing on him,( pull reigns from side to side) and take him wide to keep in out of Justifys right eye.
That is what all that was about. Is it fair? No. Is it within the rules? No. But if the owner doesn't bitch nobody else will have enough platform to do so, so I guess we'll just stop talking about it.
Could you imagine if that was Chad Browns horse and it DID rush up and get Justify all lit up into the 1st turn and ultimately cost him the race and Gronkowski won it ?
I hope they give Geroux 10% and the owners, the West's a breeding right. They both deserve something.
And what if you bet on Restoring Hope? Maybe a lovely parting gift? Unreal.
Q. Looked liked Vino had Justify in his sights and flattened out or something.
A. I think they had to move sooner than they wanted to because Justify was just cruising with no pressure and Vino has a nice 3/8's or slightly more run in him, as do most closers. I think the early move, which the rider had to do to have any chance, gave reason for Vino being a little flat the last /1/8th. I mean it makes perfect sense but I don't know if it was actually something else without seeing the horse or knowing him better.
Q. The horse with the grass/synthetic pedigree come in 2nd.
A. Well that was what he had raced on but I don't care that much about the actual pedigree. While it can be an indicator of what a horse might want, the horse and it's confidence or lack thereof of each type of surface will always rule the day. Simply put, if they do not trust the footing, they will not stride out fully. And a two thirds stride makes them very slow no matter the surface or horse.
I give the horse a ton of credit. In the contest I picked him last. That was because at least half of the horses that have that type of form and ship over to run in these type races or breeders cup races, run terribly. The climate, humidity, surface etc. all can lend a hand. So having no idea who would be last, I took the horse that I knew would have probably a 50/50 chance of hating his surroundings and not run at all. Congrats to those that used him.
Lastly, Vino was a good pick Easy. If he had some pace and some pressure on Justify he would have been right there. Probably won.
Keep up the good work my man!Comment -
Thx for the synopsis of the race STR. Yeah I also picked Gronkowski to finish last in the contest. Will be interesting to see where Justify runs next. Maybe the Travers at Saratoga? Read where his breeding rights are now worth 75 Million.Comment -
hey str
prior to yesterday justify had run on fast tracks only twice..the easy first out win at santa anita and then the big figure win in the santa anita derby in his 3rd start..his speed figures in the derby and preakness were very slow..do you think it's possible those surfaces weren't to his liking but because he's extremely gifted talent wise he overcame that and got the job done?
another interesting point and this along the lines of what I've talked about in here prior..first off let me say I never would have picked the place horse but he's a great example of a horse who cost a bunch for his pedigree..
stallion fee 30k..
dam unraced..
this is her first foal to race..
cost $404K as a 2yo at auction in ireland
i figure this is often times due to the physicality of the horse..what do they name him GRONKOWSKI lol..have a hunch there's some chance i'm rightLast edited by JBEX; 06-10-18, 10:17 AM.Comment -
My question, STR, is that do you think there is any horse in this field that can go the distance with Justify if he were to go right next to him? I understand that in order to diminish Justify's chance for the win, some one should try to keep up with him. But by the same token, if anyone is gonna go with him, is also a suicide mission for himself because they know they can't keep up. Maybe Baffert entered Restoring Hope to keep horse away from Justify, or may be not. Bravazo, Tenfold tried to keep up. Noble Indy which I thought should be forwardly place, but he didn't break well from the outside. At the end of the day, Justify was just much better horse. He actually went first quarter at 23.33 then Smith had his settled and relaxed. His Beyer speed figure came back 101, time was 2:28.18, which means all the other horses still have not gotten a Beyer figure of 100 or better. I am not trying to defend him, but I just think this field are just not that good when no one has accomplished at one triple digit beyer. (You probably not a fan of Beyer Speed Figures)
What surprised me was that every one said it is very difficult for a closer to win the Belmont but Gronkowski almost did it without kind of suicide pace. Wonder if he would have made the difference in the Derby after the crazy fractions that were set.
Anyways, that's just my opinion.Comment -
Well I had fun.Comment -
Q. prior to yesterday justify had run on fast tracks only twice..the easy first out win at santa anita and then the big figure win in the santa anita derby in his 3rd start..his speed figures in the derby and preakness were very slow..do you think it's possible those surfaces weren't to his liking but because he's extremely gifted talent wise he overcame that and got the job done?
A. It certainly could be. Time will tell. If that is the case, he really is tons the best isn't he?
Q. another interesting point and this along the lines of what I've talked about in here prior..first off let me say I never would have picked the place horse but he's a great example of a horse who cost a bunch for his pedigree..
stallion fee 30k..
dam unraced..
this is her first foal to race..
cost $404K as a 2yo at auction in ireland
i figure this is often times due to the physicality of the horse..what do they name him GRONKOWSKI lol..have a hunch there's some chance i'm right
A. Sounds right to me. The horse was obviously well touted at the sale to bring that price and he must have had the looks to back the talk up. I think you are all over that.
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Q. ]My question, STR, is that do you think there is any horse in this field that can go the distance with Justify if he were to go right next to him?
A. No. Not as far and not as fast. He might lose but IMO it would be to a horse that was the beneficiary of the duel, if any.
Q. (You probably not a fan of Beyer Speed Figures)
A. No, I am not. But I am a big fan of really good horses and Justify is exactly that. He is much better than all that have tried to beat him so far.
Q. What surprised me was that every one said it is very difficult for a closer to win the Belmont but Gronkowski almost did it without kind of suicide pace. Wonder if he would have made the difference in the Derby after the crazy fractions that were set.
A. History shows just how hard it is to win that race from way back. Gronk ran an exceptional race. And the Derby thought is a good one. We will never know but the pace would have played much more to his favor than the Belmont did.
I agree with your opinions. I think you are all over this one Mr. GandT.Comment
