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they mentioned on tvg she might be a candidate for royal ascot..army mule above avg turf and liam's map of course is sire of deterministic..remember last year when clement was interviewed about deterministic (think prior to his 3yo debut)he said he had another by liam's map who won a turf sprint stakes (or allowance ..not 100% sure) ..doesn't seem unrealistic he might give that a shotComment -
Hey JBEX and STR: do you both think maybe JBEX should start an ARMY MULE PROGENY thread? It seems to me like the Racing and question thread is being overtaken by Army Mules. LOL. Just my 2 cents.Comment -
deterministic made his 4yo debut yesterday .. allowance race scheduled for 9f on the turf went on a sloppy track instead..always have said would like to see him back on the dirt as his first two career wins were on it ..ran on the front end ,which he'd never done before,held well to finish 2nd by 1+ lengths ..sure he got something out of this so he'll probably be more fit for his next start
kee R10 if you want to watch a replayComment -
as you know this years 2yo's will be his 4th crop so going to be seeing more and more of them ..maybe at some point you want to stop reviewing trips because of the volume of runners he has and I totally get that ..always appreciate the extra insight you give and I think you've already established he's an extremely talented sireLast edited by JBEX; 04-07-25, 05:14 PM.Comment -
chancer mcpatrick (7-2) will be running in the bluegrass stakes tomorrow which is kentucky's final derby prep..also burnham square (9-2) I feel doesn't look bad ..little bias with both as the former we followed in this thread and the latter by liam's map who's progeny we also kept loose tabs on (because of deterministic and caldera)..also a sire future recommendation at big odds
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Maybe EZ is right. It is a Q and A thread and I would not want to discourage anyone that might have a question from asking it.
So what about posting AM's etc. that will be running in a new thread and any follow up questions regarding the race in here? I think there will be plenty. Or some variation of that ? IDK. What do you guys think ?( more on this in a minute)
That said, I really enjoy the AM, Deterministic, KB in the next couple of years, and all of them. A lot. It has me watching more video looking at replays and that seems to help people see things that occur during the race that most do not know to watch for. That is a great way to learn and with these things that have come up in the last few days especially within these replays, there are winners that will come from those and I do not want them to get lost.
Let me say that the only reason this thread has gone on as long as it has, has much more to do with you posters than with me. Without questions and fan interest it would have died a long time ago. This thread continues to allow me to share insights and opinions from race to race or question to question. And the AM's that do find problems within the race, the luxury of following them is that you can be really confident that you will get the horses best effort darn near every time. They are all so competitive. Can't take that for granted ever.
This thread has also allowed me to be more at peace with leaving the game when I did. It has allowed me to talk about things I suppressed for years and it has freed me from the anger and hurt that circumstances caused within the game. HISA being implemented has helped as well. Amazing to see some long time people all decide to quit the game at the same time. Gee, wonder why? Must be a coincidence? Nah ,I don't believe in those.
I have never been more at ease with what all took place than I am today. This simple thread has allowed that to happen. And you folks that posted in here made that happen.
I surprised an old owner of mine last week when I showed up at Laurel Park before the first race knowing he would be there. Thank you Jim McCue , the long time track photographer in Md. for setting that up.
That former owner headed a claiming partnership back around 1980 +\- that flourished for quite a while. As good an owner as I ever had and a friend as well. Hopefully he reads this as I told him about this thread when we saw each other. Some really great memories from back then that I’ll never forget. Thanks Bill !
The reunion at the track is next Sunday . I’m not sure who cares but I can get some pictures of some of those well known people and post them if you all want. I got a text from CJ and he will be there. But that is up to you posters in here. Just let me know.
Lastly, thank all of you for helping me, help you , just as you, helped me . Pretty amazing. And in this thread , nobody cares if you were a republican or democrat or your race or religion. Just people helping people. The way all this was meant to be.Comment -
I am not necessarily confident, but I am really hopeful that Chancer McPatrick will find his groove and run well today in the Bluegrass.
Sometimes closing one turn sprinters just do not want two turns and/ or more ground. I don't know if that is the case or not. Understand having to try though, so today should help answer that question. As a 2 yr. old, those moves he made were electric. Hope it continues around two turns.Comment -
it's terrific you get so much out of this thread str ..I'm sure everybody ,including myself, agrees it always has and continues to be a great learning tool to understand the game from the perspective of a trainer .. something that can also improve one's handicapping by seeing things in a different light than just speed figures trainer stats etc
I too have enjoyed following KB,DM and the progeny of AM and it wouldn't even be as close to interesting without your take on their performances .. appreciate what you do and the time you put in always
still 3 years away from kingsbarns first crop and that will certainly be interesting also
my suggestion with army mule would be do everything about him in the same thread (new one) ..this way we have one place for his entries and commentary when you feel it's worth noting something..obviously with the latter it will have some educational material also
this is up you though str and if you'd prefer the occasional reviews to be done in your thread that's ok with me .. can always switch things along the way if we want ..will start this next week in case any new ideas come to mind .. no rush to respond
sure with the pictures if you're up to it .. be cool to see some shots of mccarron and othersComment -
Yeah JBEX I like your ideas of having all Army Mule progeny related items in a thread of it's own with of course the option to move something real pressing to this thread. The constant barrage of army mule info needs it's own thread imo. But of course STR you have the final say. THX for running one of the more knowledgeable horse racing threads on the web.Comment -
Well, kind of where I was going with this before the race. IMO, this horse needs to get back to what he does best which is one turn. Of course, Chad Brown knows this as well as anybody if indeed I am right. He did what he had to try and do which was 2 turns. But unless I am not seeing something, he now has to do what it appears he must do, which is try and go back to one turn and get the horses confidence back. Just my opinion from the cheap seats but that is what I saw last fall and continue to see.Comment -
my only argument the other way would be this str..his first chance around 2 turns was breaking from the widest post in the bc juvenile which is a very tough assignment with no experience ..3yo debut behind a crawling pace in the tampa bay derby finished a decent 2nd..can't explain his last race but with the difference in stallion value of a router and how much he cost I can see them giving it a go one more time ..exception would be if chad sees something definitively as a reason he won't do well in it ...have to admit though what he did in his first 3 races as a 2yo was as impressive as it gets..be interesting to see what they do with him moving forwardComment -
as far as starting an army mule thread I'd rather know going in which way we will go with follow up commentary..I think the main thing with a new thread is pointing out they are running therefore occasional follow ups could be in your thread str..on the other hand keeping everything in the new thread would keep all the observations of him more together to reference some of his performances..this is why I'm not starting it immediately..time to mull it over through the week..ultimately whatever you decide is fine str
nothing set in stone..could decide to change how we do it along the wayLast edited by JBEX; 04-09-25, 09:19 AM.Comment -
Thoroughbred owner Mike Repole said he would be “a very interested buyer” for Gulfstream Park and would continue racing at the Florida track.
“We’ve had meetings,” he said in an X post. “I can’t force anyone to sell.”
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As I said before EZ. Gulfstream winter is so vitally important to racing, especially NY racing, that it will need to be sold to people with like needs. Repole would be the perfect person to lead NY investors into this. And, the best part, you get the current owners out of the game being as they have clearly decided that value is all they are seeking.Comment -
Kinda cool to watch young horses develop.... Here is a progression of what Richard Mandella is thinking with moonlight courage and the last couple of works ... last one being today
Moonlit Courage Workout Report
Moonlit Courage breezed six furlongs in 1:14.20 while on the inside of GSW Goliad yesterday morning at Santa Anita Park. The duo went easily by intention in this maintenance drill, but your daughter of Omaha Beach did it nicely. Trainer Richard Mandella reports that next week he plans to come back with a strong 5/8 gate drill and then he believes she will be ready for a debut.
Moonlit Courage Workout Report
Moonlit Courage worked sharply from the gate this morning at Santa Anita Park, covering five furlongs in a bullet :59.20. Your daughter of Omaha Beach has really moved forward over the last three weeks and seems to be peaking at the right time. We have two options in the new condition book for a potential debut: a six-furlong turf maiden special weight on April 19th; and a six-furlong dirt MSW on April 25th. We’ll see how she bounces out of this work and let trainer Richard Mandella determine over which surface he wants to get her started, but there's certainly plenty to get excited about after seeing this work.
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Straight No Chaser Update
Straight No Chaser is heading back to the U.S. and is expected to arrive in California on Saturday. Trainer Dan Blacker will give him another thorough review at that point and we’ll begin mapping out our plan for the rest of the season.
Caldera Breeze Report
Caldera worked five furlongs this morning in Hot Springs, stopping the clock in 1:00.60 (3/17). He breezed outside of 4-year-old stablemate Daily Grind, a $1.35-million yearling purchase who was most recently second in a first-level allowance. As you’ll see, Caldera got the better of his mate late in the work.
We remain on schedule for the Bathhouse Row, for which nominations have been released. Entries will be taken this Sunday.
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headline numbers who've we've discussed before just wired the field in a 1 1/8 mile listed stakes at aqu on a sloppy track (bred to love it) ..her first stakes win and she was the 2nd choice at 7-5 in a 4 horse fieldComment -
Outrageously bred to like/ love an off track, this was a total overlay IMO. Easy for me to say that after the race but when 6 of the 9 races are won wire to wire, and a horse like this is going to the lead in a small field which will most likely produce fair early fractions, when a setup like this occurs, more logic and analysis is needed than just the form itself as to who might be better. This was more like who might be better TODAY, on that track, with a 4 horse field. ( Without seeing the form, I assume the favorite wanted to lay just off and rate a little early? )
As you know JBEX, often times you put the race together as to early position on paper before the race looking for too much early pressure or whatever the most likely flow of the race might show. In this case, a horse of high quality is going to get the chance to set very fair early fractions on a track that is clearly favoring speed and on an off track that this horse is royally bred for. That would be a solid play on in any circumstance.
I hope people reading this that are inquiring as to how to maybe help them handicap better or see things others might not consider, try this. It REALLY works. Not always, because stuff happens in races, but they have to trust me when I say that if they do it, when it does come together, they will think they found a new tool that only some can see,. And... They have.
I always remember back in the day that everyone would say how NY bettors are the sharpest there are but in today's world of simulcast, not so much. It is post race so don't I sound smart guy, but in all honesty, the wrong horse was 3-5 IMO.
Setting up an early race flow like Timeform, (Craig Malinowski) shows, is a MUST for me when mapping out a race. PACE MAKES THE RACE is so important to remember when handicapping.
Hope that helps someone with their handicapping. If they try it, I promise it will.
Thanks for letting me know JBEX.Comment -
Changing topics for a minute, I have only needed a hole in one on 16 in the Masters since Friday in the SBR Bingo game. Lol. Can everyone that watches today help will somebody’s tee shot on 16 into the hole please ?
I will have to record it because today is the racetrack reunion at Laurel Park for all the old or still current people that worked there in any capacity back in the day .
Some HOF people will be there as well as a lot of us that spent our time in various capacities there, doing what we do, everyday. I will try and get some pictures to post for you but if anyone is going to be there, come check it out or say hi. I’m str and if you are looking for me just ask about anyone and chances are they will know who str is. It is from 12-4pm on the 2nd floor clubhouse side.Comment -
as far as AQ Yesterday STR yeah most horses won on the lead but David Aragona Had 2 of the shots that came off the pace to win. I tailed him on SAT and tied for 3rd in a HT 120 player contest. He is one sharp capper as he hit a 10/1 and 9/1 shot there.Comment -
My top pick is Eliminate (#3), who returns from a layoff for Todd Pletcher. This runner has been a mild disappointment, never really building upon some promising efforts behind the likes of future graded stakes winners Deterministic and Domestic Product early in his career. He did eventually break his maiden sprinting, suggesting that shorter distances are preferable for this son of Curlin. However, he lost much of his early speed after that even as his speed figures started to improve. He seemed to struggle pushing away from the gate with his hind end, often leaving himself with too much to do. Horses with that issue can sometimes benefit from being gelded, and that's exactly what Pletcher did for him. He has been training for this return like clockwork down at Palm Beach Downs for his 4-year-old debut. Pletcher can certainly have one ready off a layoff, and this gelding's uneven form should ensure a fair price.Comment -
no problem str
obviously for me the attraction was following HN but as you pointed out a little research on how the track was playing,likely race scenario and her tremendous off track pedigree might make you consider 7-5 as not so bad ..also the extra half furlong certainly favorable with that sire dam sire combo
have a hunch also they wanted to avoid what happened in her last race ..battling on the front end of a very slow pace and getting caught late
young,lightly raced,great pedigree and trainer ..a little more mature and experienced also .. she'll be an interesting follow this yearComment
