PHOENIX RACEWAY (Xfinity/Cup)---

[5mike5]

Alright guys we are on the last stop of the west coast swing this weekend when the cars arrive at PHOENIX RACEWAY where we will have the Xfinity series and the Cup series both in action. The trucks have this week off, but will return next weekend for Atlanta. The weekend kicks off with the meaningless practice/Qualifying session for the Xfinity cars on Saturday morning at 11:30am and will air on FS1. That is followed by the just as meaningless Cup practice/Qualifying session at 1:30pm also airing on FS1. The Xfinity race will be at 4pm also on FS1. The Cup race will end the weekend on Sunday afternoon at 3pm airing on the main FOX channel.


Phoenix is 1 of my least fav racetracks, and when it comes to a race winner its gonna be tough sledding again this week. there are really only about 7-8 guys really really good here , but none of those guys have reeled off multiple wins the last few years and since it was reconfigured. But been a good start keeping our head above water so hopefully we can get lucky enough to make it to the ATL in good shape. F1 season also kicks off next week along with another Indy car race at Texas. GOOD LUCK this weekend fellas!!!!

[kjack25]

Hamlin +900
Bell +2500
Cindric +4000
Briscoe +5500

Penske was fast when they did a test at Phoenix with the new car so feel like I should add Blaney or Logano.

[avssakic]

Byron +1400
Harvick +1800

Both are pretty consistent there and think those numbers are decent for them

[5mike5]

im still looking over everything and deciding another thing or 2


not gonna box myself in with many single winners pre race...trying to settle on just 1 guy near the top early, really only liking 1 or 2 long shots @ 20 or worse that wouldn't need a miracle to win here imo. this is a very tough oval betting wise.


obv gonna parlay Gibbs with something just not sure what yet...will post when im finished up

[Optional]

BetMGM Sportsbook Insights: NASCAR Ruoff Mortgage 500

Line Movement:

• Kyle Larson opened +350, now +400
• Denny Hamlin opened +900, now +800
• Ryan Blaney opened +1200, now +1000

Highest Ticket%

• Christopher Bell 9.3%
• Kyle Larson 7.4%
• Chase Elliott 6.2%

Highest Handle%

• Joey Logano 15.2%
• Kyle Larson 15.0%
• Christopher Bell 8.1%

Biggest Liabilities

• Christopher Bell
• Aric Almirola
• Joey Logano

Driver	Opening Odds	Current Odds	Ticket%	Handle%
Christopher Bell	3300	2500	9.3%	8.1%
Kyle Larson	350	400	7.4%	15.0%
Chase Elliott	800	800	6.2%	5.8%
Kevin Harvick	1800	1800	5.9%	4.7%
Martin Truex Jr.	700	700	5.8%	3.8%
Joey Logano	900	900	5.5%	15.2%
Kyle Busch	700	700	5.3%	4.7%
Aric Almirola	4000	2500	5.2%	4.5%
Denny Hamlin	900	800	4.9%	4.9%
Brad Keselowski	3300	4000	4.5%	4.4%
Austin Cindric	4000	4000	4.4%	2.6%
Tyler Reddick	2500	2500	4.1%	7.5%
Alex Bowman	2000	2000	4.0%	4.8%
Ryan Blaney	1200	1000	3.2%	3.5%
William Byron	1400	1400	2.5%	3.2%
Ross Chastain	4000	4000	2.5%	0.7%
Bubba Wallace	15000	12500	2.2%	1.6%
Kurt Busch	4000	4000	2.1%	0.6%
Erik Jones	6600	6600	2.1%	0.9%
Chase Briscoe	5000	6600	1.5%	0.5%
Cole Custer	10000	10000	1.5%	0.4%
Harrison Burton	20000	25000	1.5%	0.5%
Ty Dillon	40000	40000	1.2%	0.8%
A.J. Allmendinger	8000	8000	1.1%	0.2%
Daniel Suarez	8000	8000	1.1%	0.3%
Justin Haley	30000	30000	1.0%	0.2%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	6600	8000	0.8%	0.1%
Austin Dillon	6600	6600	0.7%	0.2%
Chris Buescher	15000	15000	0.7%	0.3%
Corey Lajoie	75000	75000	0.7%	0.1%
Todd Gilliland	75000	100000	0.4%	0.0%
Michael McDowell	50000	50000	0.3%	0.0%
Cody Ware	150000	150000	0.3%	0.0%
B.J. McLeod	200000	200000	0.3%	0.0%
Josh Bilicki	200000	200000	0.0%	0.0%
Garrett Smithley	200000	200000	0.0%	0.0%
Sportsbook Data Insights by BetMGM

[5mike5]

Thinking about just playing Gibbs single bullet for Xfinity. Honestly hate the odds on Almost ever other driver. maybe Creed at 3000 as 1 longshot worth a stab? Obv will play a h2h parlay if I like a few of them. or maybe the odds will move around after the session tomorrow mormning

[dapperandy]

Any thoughts on Arca Series West race they have up on Bovada? Idk much about this series but…

Jake Drew at 150-1 seems like an insane number

Austin Herzog 75-1 🤷🏿*♂️

[unlearn]

Any thoughts on Arca Series West race they have up on Bovada? Idk much about this series but…

Jake Drew at 150-1 seems like an insane number

Austin Herzog 75-1 🤷🏿*♂️

I took Sammy Smith at +1100.

[mink]

Sammy Smith is the play.

Sammy is in the KBM car. That team was purchased from Gibbs. It’s the team/car that Ty Gibbs dominated Phoenix with/in last season.

Sammie won at New Smyrna earlier this season leading 167 of the 200 laps. Taylor Gray finished second. Taylor Gray is out at Phoenix after the tragic wreck on the way to the track.

[dapperandy]

I took Sammy Smith at +1100.

Shit, wish I coulda got those odds now 😅

[unlearn]

Shit, wish I coulda got those odds now 😅

And I wish I would have bet more. Doesnt take much to move these ARCA lines at bovada

[dapperandy]

Sammy Smith is the play.

Sammy is in the KBM car. That team was purchased from Gibbs. It’s the team/car that Ty Gibbs dominated Phoenix with/in last season.

Sammie won at New Smyrna earlier this season leading 167 of the 200 laps. Taylor Gray finished second. Taylor Gray is out at Phoenix after the tragic wreck on the way to the track.

Thank you so much for this insight, I shouldn’t have missed even the 7-1

[mink]

Thank you so much for this insight, I shouldn’t have missed even the 7-1

Bovada reads this board.

[mink]

Taylor Gray made it to the track. Looks to be pretty fast. Just a heads up.

[mcaulay777]

I totally agree on the New Phoenix track. I Absolutely hate this new layout. I went to Nascar in Phoenix every Year from 95-04 when i lived there it had huge crowds the dogleg where drivers came close to that lip,the overhanging bridge on turn 4 great crowds partying on the hill did that one year 97 when Dale Jarrett won coming from 2 laps down,It is just so weird not seeing that great old grandstand. But i still love the race,I went a little chalky with Chase Elliott and Joey Logano, My longshot pick this week a little Pizza Money on Ty Dillion.

[mink]

[5mike5]

for the 1st time in prob over a year i tossed $ on Harvick to win...ill kick myself later obv...I just couldn't pass on +2000 for him here

[5mike5]

Lets go Sammie Smith!

[dapperandy]

Lets go Sammie Smith!

👏 👏

[racing_is_fun]

So Bovada grades win markets as a loss when the winner was not even listed. Good times.

[unlearn]

So Bovada grades win markets as a loss when the winner was not even listed. Good times.

Yeah that's some bs. Gray was only listed in the live market. All pre race bets should have been voided since there was no field and Gray wasnt listed. I've been on live chat trying to explain this to idiot CS rep for an hour now. Finally just gave up and sent an email. We shall see

[infotimbo]

I wouldn't expect too much, unless there's sth in the rules about it. And personally I don't know a single bookie who does, tbh. I happens more often in other sports, and they all keep the money

[Optional]

Someone ask them.

Might help knowing the precedent used here for the future, even if they dont void.

[5mike5]

Haven't played anything all week so I'm itching. Ready to get the race weekend started Still just Gibbs (+500) for the Xfinity win, and a underdog h2h parlay. Unless odd change or something not liking much else for it but obv will look over it after session.

[infotimbo]

yeah, I also struggle a bit to come to much of a conclusion so far. The JGR cars had superiour long-run speed last week and also last fall in Phoenix, but not sure it's worth too much at the moment, given the enormous amounts of yellows we tend to get.

Blaney looks a tad too high for me, but not sure yet. Chastain as well, I guess, just going by his performance the past two weeks

edit: took Chastain @50 for a start

[kjack25]

Larson looks fast in practice. Had the fastest average over 15, 20 and 30 laps. Blaney 2nd in all 3. Hopefully he’s still +1200 when they repost the lines.
Bayne looked fast in Xfinity, just behind Gragson. +800 looks like good value.

[5mike5]

I wouldn't overreact to morning practice. Bayne owns a coffee shop down the street I just can't with him. When doesn't 5 look fast prob gonna be a repeat of last year with him by the early looks...May repost at 250. Lol. Liked 12 too but damn that kid just can't finish races when the pay window opens

[5mike5]

Think I'm just sticking to the early Gibbs plays for the Win.


didnt like many h2hs so just went with 3 underdogs


Doubt I would Live bet either. Just gonna risk couple hundo

[5mike5]

Mayer>Bayne (+130)
Dinger> Gragson (+120)
Creed>Hill (-105)
(+883)


Gonna need a crazy ending for this to have a shot

[boardsnow24]

Gibbs +500
Bayne +700
B. Jones +1300

Bayne and Jones just to cover bets.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Let’s roll, boys!

0.5u Gragson +425
0.2u Mayer +2500
0.2u Creed +2200
0.1u Siege +4000

[5mike5]

Let’s roll, boys!

0.5u Gragson +425
0.2u Mayer +2500
0.2u Creed +2200
0.1u Siege +4000

DDD !

GL buddy

[boardsnow24]

Triple D! Good luck today! Any UFC bets tonight?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Triple D! Good luck today! Any UFC bets tonight?

Yesir!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

First flight that I have money on is actually starting right now (Cannetti).