Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 01.10.07

[Jay Edgar]

For the blind system, I believe that's three down days in a row for the first time this season.

Be interesting to see what happens next.

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 1-5, -3.70u
(ATL, PHI, POR, MEM, SEA, UTH)
YTD 132-228, +33.01u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Tuesday, 3-2-1, +.90u
YTD 191-163 (.540), +19.85u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 PHX 71
2 ORL 65
3 DAL 64
4 CLE 63
5 HOU 61
6 MIN 58
7 CHI 57
8 SAN 56
9 NJ 56
10 WAS 56
11 DET 56
12 LAX 55
13 MIL 55
14 NY 52
15 LAC 52
16 UTH 52
17 SAC 50
18 IND 49
19 TOR 49
20 PHI 46
21 GS 46
22 CHA 44
23 BOS 44
24 MEM 42
25 DEN 40
26 SEA 37
27 MIA 35
28 ATL 35
29 NOK 33
30 POR 31

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.10.07
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)

WAS 4.5/167 over CHI

ATL 3.8/156 over NOK

BOS 1.2/109 over IND

NY 6.0/214 over PHI

DET 5.7/202 over CHA

MIN 5.1/181 over LAC

MIL 6.6/251 over TOR

HOU 5.6/196 over LAX

DAL 7.8/320 over POR

DEN 4.1/160 over SAN

SEA 3.7/150 over MIA

GS 2.8/134 over ORL

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method)

CHI +201, WAS -140

NOK +187, ATL -131

IND +129, BOS +109

PHI +261, NYK -177

CHA +246, DET -168

LAC +218, MIN -151

TOR +312, MIL -206

LAX +239, HOU -164

POR +410, DAL -257

SAN +192, DEN -135

MIA +179, SEA -126

ORL +159, GS -113

[Hulu]

Like MLB it could be that the dogs stop cashing at the same rate somewhere around the mid point of the season. Lets hope not.

[Jay Edgar]

Without anything to back it up my sense is that about this time of year three things happen --

1. more casual players begin to focus on the NBA
2. bookmakers have gotten the lines into pretty good dhape
3. more frequently, you get that classic NBA game that everyone loves to hate, where one team simply fails to show up

Those three factors in combination wouldn't obviously push things consistently one way or the other, at least not that I can see.

One thing to keep in mind about this method -- it is not a blind play-the-dog method. A lot of factors and number-crunching go into daily ratings for each team, and the method is to consistently play any line that deviates meaningfully from those ratings, whether favorite or dog, home or road.

It does turn out to be largely dogs that are recommended plays, but for instance tonight so far you would be taking the Knicks and Sonics and passing on the Bulls Lakers Clippers and Magic.

[Hulu]

Yes I understand that you are in fact setting your own lines and finding value in the difference.

If in fact the system fails to produce positive results in the 2nd half of the season, you may want to look back on your data and tweak some of the factors you use in your formula. Creating different systems to work with the 1st and 2nd half of the season.

The hard part is that to prove it out, you would almost have to keep a second set of numbers which would be time consuming. (perhaps you could seek advice from some former Enron employees...I hear they are quite skilled in keeping 2 sets of books )

Either way, many thanks for posting this info daily. Its been a fun and profitable ride so far.

[Jay Edgar]

You are welcome.
I really appreciate the comments.