Dont bet live unless you know the value on a team (basketball)

**killawookie** · 12-26-20, 11:15 AM

Considering the Nets yesterday were going through the motions in the first half and are GOING to dominate a soft team like the Celtics, I'll take the HT line EVERY time on the Fav that becomes the dog live betting.

**clockwise1965** · 12-26-20, 01:03 PM

Watching the game live is a necessary to place winning live wagers.

**konck** · 12-26-20, 02:16 PM

To me used the correct way there's a ton of value live betting

**jacksonstreet** · 12-26-20, 03:02 PM

Nah - here's the key....waiting until late and finding teams that are trailing by 5-10 points, and then seeing a line that's between +100 and +200. Find the lines that make you say "how on earth is the line only xxx?!?!" You'll win more of those than you lose.

**coolguy73739** · 12-26-20, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by killawookie

Considering the Nets yesterday were going through the motions in the first half and are GOING to dominate a soft team like the Celtics, I'll take the HT line EVERY time on the Fav that becomes the dog live betting.

Like I said, if team had a value before game starts, it makes every sense to bet them LIVE once odds are in your favor. If you were sure of your edge on Nets ( considering it was fav) before game started, its huge advantage to bet them Live once they are trailing or at better odds. Point im trying to emphasize is if you Bet Blindly at LIve odds without your quantified edge, you will lose all your Money long term.
A case in point, CSKA was fav by -10.5 against Unics Kazan in VTB united league before game commenced and had a good value. During Live betting, CSKA trailed and their spread was available at -4.0.. Needless to mention thats the perfect opportunity to grab and I made a killing.. Knowing value is paramount else Bookmakers hold big EDGE against Bettors in LIve betting long run.

**coolguy73739** · 12-27-20, 02:14 AM

Chiba Jets -1 is huge value LIVE NOW
JAPAN BASKETBALL

**Fred The Hammer** · 12-27-20, 11:43 PM

Live betting can be a great opportunity, but you can't get caught up in the momentum. The Nets came out against somebody and hit everything they put up. 40-26 or something 1Q and nobody is playing any defense. I take the live Over and the backups come in 2Q and end up playing the whole 4Q in a rout that goes way under.

Good example early on I got WV +145 vs W. Kentucky and they were only down by 4 at home with 11 min to go in the game. They won by 6.

I got the Bengals +4.5 (-135 I think?) after they went up 10-0. Now I shouldn't have to tell you that a dog with a 10-0 lead +4.5 is a helluva lot better then the +14.5 pregame line. Now they've got confidence and the favorite no longer has the full game to cover.

Overall though I still get burned by getting caught up by the momentum in live betting. I'm a work in progress. Halftime gives you more time to shop lines and prevent mistakes imo.

**coolguy73739** · 12-28-20, 01:01 AM

I'm being specific on Basketball games ..
If Bengals +14.5 had value pre-game, I doubt it make sense to bet them live at such short odds.. but again it all depends on the day and how good they play..
Live betting is good opportunity to make hell of money provided value and odds are in your favor.. keep Grinding..

**hankcream** · 12-28-20, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

Chiba Jets -1 is huge value LIVE NOW
JAPAN BASKETBALL

Where are you finding a feed without some delay for Japanese Basketball? I've got the fastest internet available in my area and still have issues getting live bets in

**coolguy73739** · 12-28-20, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by hankcream

Where are you finding a feed without some delay for Japanese Basketball? I've got the fastest internet available in my area and still have issues getting live bets in

Pinnacle

**d2bets** · 12-28-20, 03:07 PM

Live betting you cannot simply look at one shop. You need to have access to as many different live lines as you can so that you can discern value and spot trends.

**coolguy73739** · 12-29-20, 04:08 AM

Two books having slight variations in odds on a team live betting is Value you mean ?
Nah, don't agree Bro..

**d2bets** · 12-29-20, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by coolguy73739

Two books having slight variations in odds on a team live betting is Value you mean ?
Nah, don't agree Bro..

I certainly didn't say two. The more the merrier. At least 4 or 5 different operations is minimum. Variations are not always slight. And if you have that you only bet the best of the number you are taking. If you are betting blind, you won't get that. Even if you think you want a certain side, if you can't get the bets of that number, then pass. The juice is already steep enough live.

**jjgold** · 12-30-20, 07:29 AM

Never ever bet live except commercial breaks/timeouts /stoppages

Never ever bet live without watching game

**coolguy73739** · 12-30-20, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Never ever bet live except commercial breaks/timeouts /stoppages

Never ever bet live without watching game

Point noted . watch the Game and bet like Sharp.. Does watching games or betting during breaks make you an intelligent Bettor ?

**coolguy73739** · 01-06-21, 09:38 AM

Live betting is only meant for Bookies to collect JUICE OR VIG from both sides while odds are running.. If you bet Live, you are bound to lose long term unless you are confident of your numbers.. Its one of the best tools to make them richer by Billions.. Know your numbers before you bet them.. Not everyone is Billy Walters...

**danmam** · 01-11-21, 04:02 AM

In Ed Miller's The Logic of Sports Betting he says, as a programmer who is creating his own live betting platform, NEVER to bet except when the game is on a break. There's a 8-10 second delay from the time something in a game appears on your TV, and live betting platforms add in an additional delay since people were going to games and live betting. Then when you submit your wager, there's an additional delay while the platform for 5-10 seconds waits to see if your wager's odds shorten or get longer. If they shorten your bet is often rejected, so you end up ONLY getting in bets that, assuming the odds you placed the wager at is "fair value", are fair value (if no change in odds) or worse, never will your bet be accepted if it's better than "fair value" by the time the platform has decided whether to accept it or not.

And this delay is massive. It translates roughly to, best case, the live betting platform being one or two possessions (in basketball) or one or two plays (in football) ahead of you. Wait for timeouts, quarter breaks, etc.

From the book:

This point is so important it deserves its own section. If you are betting in-game, bet only during timeouts. Never, ever bet when the game is underway. In the United States, as of 2019, if you’re watching a game on TV, your feed will be substantially delayed from the live action. Most people underestimate how long this delay is. Typical these days is about 18 seconds. It can be delayed even longer on some TV providers or if you are streaming the game over the internet (on a stream that’s not specifically designed to be low latency). Sportsbooks, for the most part, use lines that are based on low-latency data feeds. That is, whoever is making the lines knows what’s happened in the game with only perhaps a one second delay. Then it’s 17 more seconds of delay until you see it on TV. The sportsbook is a full basketball possession ahead of you. A full football play. A full baseball pitch. Don’t even think about betting into a situation like that. In fact, it’s often even worse. Sportsbooks often tack on an extra delay when you bet in-game. An eight second delay might be typical. Here’s what happens when you try to make that Spurs moneyline bet while the game is in progress. First, the line you’re betting into has been made using the result of the next possession that you haven’t seen yet baked into it. Then after you click “Submit” on your in-play bet, the sportsbook puts it in a queue and literally just sits on it for eight seconds (or however long they have set the delay). Your experience as the bettor here is that you will see the little cursor spinning on your web or mobile betting app. You might otherwise think this is “network latency” or some such, but it’s not. It’s the sportsbook just waiting you out for eight seconds. They’re waiting to see if they get another line update from their odds provider during those eight seconds. If they get an update, but the line stays about the same, then you usually get the bet. If they get an update, but the line moves substantially, then it depends on which way it moves what happens next. If the line moves your way (i.e., if something good for the bet you tried to make has happened in the game), then the sportsbook will either decline your bet outright or offer it to you at the new (worse) odds. If the line moves against you (i.e., if something bad for the bet happens during those eight seconds), then the sportsbook either gives you the bet (thank you very much), or sometimes will give you the bet at the new, better price (and tell you what great folks they are for giving you a better price).