NBA Quarter Chase System 2024 - 2025

[shwang80]

NBA Quarter Chase System: Comprehensive Guide

Welcome to the NBA Quarters Chase System, a data-driven, progressive betting strategy designed to maximize profitability while managing risks. Below is an overview of how the system works, key updates, and statistics for the 2024-2025 season.
The system uses a 4-legged chase model to secure a 1-unit profit per matchup, progressing through NBA quarters with calculated wagers. Proper bankroll management and game monitoring are essential for success.

1. Maximum Loss & Unit Size:
   Maximum loss per failed matchup is 20 units. To determine unit size:
   
   • Divide your total allowable loss by 20 units.
   
   
2. Bet Calculation:
   
   • 1st Quarter: Start with a 1-unit pre-match wager + Vig.
   • Subsequent Quarters: Use the formula:
     Wager = (Total Wagers So Far + 1 Unit) + Vig
     This ensures losses are recovered and a 1-unit profit is achieved.

• 1Q: 1 unit wager = 1.1 units risked
• 2Q: 2.1 units wagered = 2.31 units risked
• 3Q: 4.41 units wagered = 4.851 units risked
• 4Q: 8.161 units wagered = 8.9771 units risked

[shwang80]

Key Statistics & Performance

Matchups Tracked (2019-2020 to Present): 6,619

341 Wins vs. 1 Losses (20-unit losses)

Total Profit: 322 units

2024-2025 Season (21 matchups so far):

11/07/2024 - Portland Trail Blazers (2Q win)
11/10/2024 - Miami Heat (1Q win)
11/13/2024 - Brooklyn Nets (1Q win)
11/15/2024 - Brooklyn Nets (4Q win)
11/15/2024 - Memphis Grizzlies (1Q win)
11/16/2024 - Utah Jazz (2Q win)
11/17/2024 - Miami Heat (2Q win)
11/18/2024 - Chicago Bulls (1Q win)
11/21/2024 - Toronto Raptors (1Q win)
11/22/2024 - Brooklyn Nets (2Q win)
11/25/2024 - Los Angeles Clippers (3Q win)
11/26/2024 - Houston Rockets (1Q win)
11/27/2024 - Portland Trail Blazers (1Q win)
11/27/2024 - Brooklyn Nets (2Q win)
11/29/2024 - Los Angeles Clippers (1Q win)
11/29/2024 - Toronto Raptors (1Q win)
12/01/2024 - Brooklyn Nets (1Q win)
12/03/2024 - Houston Rockets (1Q win)
12/07/2024 - Charlotte Hornets (2Q win)
12/07/2024 - Memphis Grizzlies (1Q win)
12/08/2024 - Minnesota Timberwolves (1Q win)

Projected remaining profit potential for the remainder of this season: 40-60 units.

Historical Winning Quarters Breakdown:
1Q: 56.60%
2Q: 22.29%
3Q: 12.90%
4Q: 8.21%

Current Season Winning Quarters Breakdown:
1Q: 61.90%
2Q: 28.57%
3Q: 4.76%
4Q: 4.76%

Prepare for 4Q nail-biters—placing all four wagers is crucial for profitability.

A clean sweep occurs when one team dominates all four quarters, both in points and the quarterly spread, resulting in the opposing team failing to cover the spread in any quarter.

Out of 6,619 matchups, 971 (~14.7%) resulted in clean sweeps, or roughly 1 in 7 games. Betting on the losing team during a clean sweep results in a 20-unit loss, emphasizing the importance of following data-driven methods.

For the 2024-2025 season, the following updates have been implemented to reduce risks:

Enhanced Filters:

Nullify Bets for Major Player Absences:
If two or more top-scoring players are sidelined due to injury or illness, the bet is voided.

Avoid Strong Opponents: Exclude matchups with high disparities between top teams.

Ignore Weak Teams: Exclude consistently underperforming, low-ranked teams.

Factor Schedule Impact: Consider prior and next-day opponents to avoid fatigue-based risks.

Important Considerations:

Bankroll Management: Plan your unit size to align with potential losses.

Push/Draw Rule: If a quarter ends in a draw (1Q, 2Q, or 3Q), repeat the same wager for the next quarter. Do not increase it.

Commitment to the System: Skipping any wagers, especially the 4Q, can disrupt profitability. Stick with the plan.

Conclusion

This system offers a disciplined and data-driven approach to NBA quarter betting. By understanding the mechanics, selecting your wager method, and adhering to the safeguards, you can leverage the system's reliability to target a consistent profit. Stay calculated, monitor games closely, and make this your most profitable season yet!

[shwang80]

As a tool to help with calculating your wagers, I am posting a google sheets link. Make a personal copy and use it to calculate your wagers quickly.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1flUJO0AluHZyVBdZU8EjtSvlaULRRo6trz3t-7ggpRc/edit?usp=sharing

VERY IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS:


This system is highly dependent on your book's ability to provide live quarter betting lines. If you don't have access to live quarter lines, this system will not work for you.

Secondly, you need think about whether you will be available to place these wagers during the match. This is not a set it and forget it type of system.

[shwang80]

We don't get picks everyday, but we have one today to jumpstart the thread.

Pick:

Toronto Raptors (system expects 1Q pre-game odds +2)

[shwang80]

These are the teams that experienced a clean sweep from this season (2024-2025). This information is provided so that you don't try and attempt this method without a data-driven system.

10/06/2024 Washington Wizards
10/07/2024 Memphis Grizzlies
10/10/2024 Memphis Grizzlies
10/11/2024 Phoenix Suns
10/12/2024 Philadelphia 76ers
10/13/2024 Sacramento Kings
10/13/2024 Detroit Pistons
10/14/2024 Washington Wizards
10/14/2024 Atlanta Hawks
10/15/2024 Sacramento Kings
10/15/2024 Los Angeles Lakers
10/18/2024 Utah Jazz
10/18/2024 Los Angeles Lakers
10/24/2024 Denver Nuggets
10/25/2024 Philadelphia 76ers
10/25/2024 Milwaukee Bucks
10/25/2024 Utah Jazz
10/26/2024 Washington Wizards
10/26/2024 Dallas Mavericks
10/27/2024 New Orleans Pelicans
10/27/2024 Milwaukee Bucks
10/27/2024 Golden State Warriors
10/30/2024 Los Angeles Lakers
10/30/2024 Memphis Grizzlies
10/31/2024 Milwaukee Bucks
11/01/2024 Indiana Pacers
11/02/2024 Minnesota Timberwolves
11/04/2024 Atlanta Hawks
11/04/2024 New York Knicks
11/04/2024 Phoenix Suns
11/06/2024 San Antonio Spurs
11/08/2024 Milwaukee Bucks
11/08/2024 Boston Celtics
11/08/2024 Sacramento Kings
11/10/2024 Portland Trail Blazers
11/12/2024 Minnesota Timberwolves
11/15/2024 Los Angeles Clippers
11/16/2024 Boston Celtics
11/17/2024 Oklahoma City Thunder
11/18/2024 Detroit Pistons
11/18/2024 Indiana Pacers
11/19/2024 Memphis Grizzlies
11/20/2024 Philadelphia 76ers
11/20/2024 Phoenix Suns
11/20/2024 Orlando Magic
11/22/2024 Atlanta Hawks
11/22/2024 Portland Trail Blazers
11/23/2024 Houston Rockets
11/24/2024 Philadelphia 76ers
11/25/2024 Denver Nuggets
11/27/2024 Washington Wizards
11/27/2024 Cleveland Cavaliers
11/27/2024 New York Knicks
11/27/2024 New Orleans Pelicans
11/27/2024 San Antonio Spurs
11/27/2024 Phoenix Suns
11/29/2024 New York Knicks
11/29/2024 Cleveland Cavaliers
11/29/2024 Indiana Pacers
12/03/2024 Detroit Pistons
12/04/2024 Los Angeles Lakers
12/04/2024 Milwaukee Bucks
12/05/2024 Washington Wizards
12/05/2024 Toronto Raptors
12/06/2024 Portland Trail Blazers
12/07/2024 Denver Nuggets
12/08/2024 Indiana Pacers
12/08/2024 Atlanta Hawks
12/08/2024 Washington Wizards
12/08/2024 Los Angeles Clippers

[shwang80]

Record 1 - 0

12/08/2024 - Toronto Raptors (2Q win)

[ken23lau]

Maybe just me, but I'm a bit lost as to what triggers a system chase and parameters surrounding the enhanced filters. From what I'm reading, it seems like these filters are subjective, creating a capping element to this.

[Wallco99]

Maybe just me, but I'm a bit lost as to what triggers a system chase and parameters surrounding the enhanced filters. From what I'm reading, it seems like these filters are subjective, creating a capping element to this.

He'll probably try to sell you something before all this is over with. I just feel it coming!

[shwang80]

I guarantee I will never attempt to sell a pick or some type of service, period. My system was developed through years of grinding and refinement. Some additions and features were products of think-tank type of conversation with like-minded people. This is why I share, because it should always be us vs. them, and not us against one another.

[shwang80]

I will post some details about the system later when I have more time. It’s not a easy system to replicate because there are key metrics that help the system avoid losses that are determined by average quarter wins over the last 7 games, and power rankings dependent on whether the pick is a home team or an away team, etc. I will post every single one of the system picks, though.

[shwang80]

There is one single subjective element. It’s the injury report. That’s and easy one. If 2 or more key players are recently sidelined for the matchup, it nullifies a bet. I will also post this info when rotowire publishes the lineup. It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen. It happened once this season with Brooklyn Nets on Nov 29 when Dennis Schroder and Cam Thomas were sidelined. Nets eked out a win in the 4Q by 0.5, but that was complete luck. Anyways, that is the only subjective part of the picking process. Everything else is completely objective.

[ken23lau]

Guess my question would then be what exactly the parameters are for the following filters:

Avoid Strong Opponents: Exclude matchups with high disparities between top teams.

Ignore Weak Teams: Exclude consistently underperforming, low-ranked teams.

Factor Schedule Impact: Consider prior and next-day opponents to avoid fatigue-based risks.

But seems like you are still drafting up the full system explanation so will wait for that!

[VeggieDog]

I will post some details about the system later when I have more time. It’s not a easy system to replicate because there are key metrics that help the system avoid losses that are determined by average quarter wins over the last 7 games, and power rankings dependent on whether the pick is a home team or an away team, etc. I will post every single one of the system picks, though.

Looking forward to any details you provide. Good luck!!

[shwang80]

Pick Rules (as close as I can get)

Sorry. I had a very busy day today. I didn't get to do any analysis. Hopefully, my day will be less hectic tomorrow. In terms of how I acquire my picks... I know there is absolutely zero chance I can put into words all of the calculations that goes into picking the teams. However, I can certainly tell you guys what the ingredients are.

1. Power Ranking
For away teams, I use the [Away] power ranking
For home teams, I use the [Home] power ranking
I also use the previous day's opponent's (if applicable) power ranking, and the next day's opponent's (again, if applicable) power ranking.

2. Next Day Opponents
I keep track of previous day and next day opponents because teams perform poorly when they either just went up against a tough opponent, or they're about to play a tough opponent the next day. Coaches will reserve the energy of key players if possible, which can drastically affect the results of each quarter.

3. Quarterly Records
I have devised a formula to calculate the live quarterly odds. This was determined through careful observation and seasons upon seasons of live betting. The live quarter odds are derived from adjusting the pre-game 1Q odds based on the score differential from quarter to quarter. This is the exact formula that I use:

• Point Difference > 29.5: Add/Subtract 4.5 points
• 24.5 < Point Difference <= 29.5: Add/Subtract 4.0 points
• 20.5 < Point Difference <= 24.5: Add/Subtract 3.5 points
• 16.5 < Point Difference <= 20.5: Add/Subtract 3.0 points
• 12.5 < Point Difference <= 16.5: Add/Subtract 2.5 points
• 10.5 < Point Difference <= 12.5: Add/Subtract 2.0 points
• 7.5 < Point Difference <= 10.5: Add/Subtract 1.5 points
• 4.5 < Point Difference <= 7.5: Add/Subtract 1.0 point
• 2.5 < Point Difference <= 4.5: Add/Subtract 0.5 points
• Point Difference <= 2.5: Odds remain equal to the 1Q line.


Based on this, I am able to determine if a team has won or lost their live quarter-based ATS. So, if a team wins all 4 quarters during their match, they get a 100%, 3 quarters, 75%, 2...50% ... you get the idea.

This value is averaged by 7 of their last matchups, and that's how I calculate what's called AQW (average quarters won). This value is absolutely crucial in determining a pick.

4. Fatigue Factor
I keep track of team play schedules to determine fatigue. I see fatigue as a factor for early quarters or later quarters. Either way, it's a solid edge for picking. I track back-to-back, 3 games in 4 nights, and back-to-back with 3 games in 4 nights.

5. Odds
The system only picks teams with 1Q pregame odds of pk or better. Essentially, they're dogs. I guess the simple explanation is to pick dogs with a AQW advantage, but also look for edges in fatigue if it exists?

I have two buckets: High Quality and Medium Quality picks

High Quality picks are better in terms of probability, but less parameters that need to be met
Medium Quality picks are lower probability, but more parameters that need to be met (to compensate for the lack of quality)

Some ground rules:

1. There is no pick at the beginning of the season until a team has played at least 7 games. This is to acquire the AQW.
2. AQW of a pick must be greater than 53.58% for a high quality pick, and 51.70% for a medium quality pick
3. AQW must be greater than the opponent AQW.
4. Avoiding Strong Opponents - When evaluating away team picks, do not pick against opponents ranked #1 or #2. When evaluating home team picks, do not pick against opponents ranked #1, #2, or #3.
5. Avoid Weak Teams - Do not pick teams ranked #28, #29, or #30

Aside from this, there are a lot of intricate metrics, but nothing that I care to explain with words. It's just a lot of math.

Here's a link to a screenshot of the spreadsheet that I use: https://imgur.com/a/3t6DkFk

[shwang80]

I also used today's power ranking stats to see if I can glean a pick for tomorrow. You can probably see it from the image, but the system is leaning LA Clippers for tomorrow's pick. Based on posted full game ATS, it's calculating 1Q odds of +2. I'll create an official post tomorrow.

[Optional]

He'll probably try to sell you something before all this is over with. I just feel it coming!

Please don't do this.

[shwang80]

In the terms of use for this forum: "The sharing of service plays and information from handicapper subscription picks is not permitted. Any such threads will be deleted and the posters will be warned with a penalty to follow if it is repeated. Using the private message system to share service plays or in an attempt to recruit members for ‘group buying’ is also prohibited."

I'm not a fly-by-night type of person. Don't worry. I'm making this forum my new home. I'm here to stay. Just buckle up, it's going to be a wild season.

[shwang80]

Record 1 - 0

We haven't had many sweeps lately (we had 4 sweeps on 12/8), so we're bound to see some tonight.

We have one pick for tonight:


Los Angeles Clippers (system expects 1Q odds of +2)


I suppose I can elaborate on why Clippers.

Clippers AQW is 53.57%
Nuggets AQW is 39.29%

...with a minimum AQW separation (3.6%) qualifier.

We also have a power rank advantage:

Clippers #7
Nuggets #14

Best of luck to all who chooses to tail this play.

[shwang80]

Clarification

Some of you guys have been asking, and so let me elaborate a bit here.

This is a ATS wagering system, not a ML system.
It's also a LIVE WAGER system. Only the first wager is a 1Q pregame wager.

The reason it's an ATS system is because ML wagers can become expensive and it'll balloon the overall risk which is not something I like doing. I'm a believer in keeping risk as low as possible.

For example, a pk live wager is often set to -120. If our pick loses by 10 points by the end of 1Q, the 2Q ML odds would be around -130 (some books are even worse). Imagine having to wager more and more to recoup those losses. It can get very costly. So, the system is strictly ATS only.

Just FYI, if anyone chooses to DM me, I can't respond until I have 40 posts, but I'm an open book. Just ask me openly and I will respond asap.

[ken23lau]

what do you use to track official live ATS lines for record keeping?

[shwang80]

Quarterly ATS formula

I mentioned in the post:

I have devised a formula to calculate the live quarterly odds. This was determined through careful observation and seasons upon seasons of live betting. The live quarter odds are derived from adjusting the pre-game 1Q odds based on the score differential from quarter to quarter. This is the exact formula that I use:

• Point Difference > 29.5: Add/Subtract 4.5 points
• 24.5 < Point Difference <= 29.5: Add/Subtract 4.0 points
• 20.5 < Point Difference <= 24.5: Add/Subtract 3.5 points
• 16.5 < Point Difference <= 20.5: Add/Subtract 3.0 points
• 12.5 < Point Difference <= 16.5: Add/Subtract 2.5 points
• 10.5 < Point Difference <= 12.5: Add/Subtract 2.0 points
• 7.5 < Point Difference <= 10.5: Add/Subtract 1.5 points
• 4.5 < Point Difference <= 7.5: Add/Subtract 1.0 point
• 2.5 < Point Difference <= 4.5: Add/Subtract 0.5 points
• Point Difference <= 2.5: Odds remain equal to the 1Q line.

[VeggieDog]

Here's a link to a screenshot of the spreadsheet that I use: https://imgur.com/a/3t6DkFk

Can you post this as a google doc similar to your post #3? TIA.

[shwang80]

No, sorry. I've worked on this for 5 years. I'm not giving it away lol.

[shwang80]

Record (2 - 0)

That was quite a script flip, and I love to see it! Los Angeles Clippers secures a win in 2Q. Record: 2 - 0.

Congrats to all who tailed

[ken23lau]

tailed today. good work!

[shwang80]

tailed today. good work!

Excellent. I'm glad to have you as company on this journey. Cheers on the win!

[shwang80]

Clean Sweeps from last night:

Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers


No system plays for tonight, and probably none for tomorrow as well.


On a positive note: I've uncovered some additional pockets of value in the data. So, we'll be seeing a handful of more plays during the season.


What is it?

When evaluating an away team, and AQW advantage of 28.58% or more
When evaluating a home team, and AQW advantage of 21.44% or more
Still avoiding Strong Opponents and Weak team picks
Still picking pk or dogs

This adds 46 wins to the units across seasons from 2019-current, while avoiding losses. It's a solid add, and it should average an additional 10 more units per season.

[shwang80]

Early peek at tomorrow's game shows a potential pick.

Early sneak peek shows: Chicago Bulls

I will confirm with you guys tomorrow, after rotowire publishes the official lineup.

[shwang80]

Clean Sweeps Update:

12/14/2024 - Atlanta Hawks


Annoying situation yesterday. Dallas opened as a -1.5 favorite, and by game time, the line had moved to a +1 dog. This would have qualified them as a pick. Dallas has an AQW of 67.86% and GSW has 46.43%. Power rank was ideal as well with Dallas #7 vs GSW #11. Oh well... we move on.

Chicago Bulls opened this morning with odds of -1.5 which forced them off the list. I'll keep monitoring the odds to see if they stroll back into the pick, but it looks like a no-pick situation at the moment.

[shwang80]

Clean Sweeps Update:

12/16/2024 - Utah Jazz
12/17/2024 - Oklahoma City Thunder (yikes)


Two major updates to the system have been made:

1. I added the 2018 - 2019 season data to further backtest the model.
2. I found additional pockets of value in the model, increasing the pick count without introducing any additional risk.

When I first brought the model to you, the pick rate was 5.92% of the overall games. Through the additional pockets of value, I've uncovered an additional 2.18%, which bring the pick rate up to 8.1% of all games. That's an increase of 36.8% picks.

What does it mean?

It means that we're looking at around 70+ additional picks for the rest of this season.

Since 2018 (with the additional data), the model displays a record of 644 wins - 2 losses (there was +1 loss from the new season update)

2018 - 2019	116 Wins - 1 Losses
2019 - 2020	59 Wins - 0 Losses
2020 - 2021	92 Wins - 0 Losses
2021 - 2022	105 Wins - 1 Losses
2022 - 2023	122 Wins - 0 Losses
2023 - 2024	113 Wins - 0 Losses
2024 - 2025	37 Wins - 0 Losses

That's all for now.


I don't have any picks for the next 2 days, unless odds change from now to game time tomorrow or Friday, but I think there's at least one pick coming on Saturday. I'll keep you guys posted.

Until then, Best of Luck to all of you!

[imotiv8]

This looks good

[shwang80]

Sweeps Update since last post:

12/19/2024 - Utah Jazz
12/19/2024 - Boston Celtics
12/19/2024 - Golden State Warriors
12/19/2024 - Minnesota Timberwolves



No picks tonight, but tomorrow and Sunday looks promising. We shall see. BOL everyone!

[shwang80]

As long as Miami doesn't somehow dominate the Cavs tonight, and none of the key players get injured and sidelined for tomorrow, we're looking at a Miami pick tomorrow eve. The system is expecting 1Q odds of +0.5, but I will confirm everything when Rotowire confirms the lineup.

[shwang80]

Hold your bets

... Doh! Miami bet is off (for now).

Jimmy Butler - ranked #1 on Miami's team. - GTD (but most likely out, with a tiny sliver of a chance that he'll be back to play)


Rotowire Analysis

Butler rolled his ankle in the first quarter of Friday's game, and he was ruled out shortly after due to a stomach bug, per NBA reporter Chris Haynes. While Butler won't travel with the Heat, Winderman relays that the All-Star wing could rejoin the team in time to be ready for Saturday's 7:00 p.m. ET tipoff. Jaime Jaquez started for Butler in the second half of Friday's game, and the former could be in the Heat's starting lineup if the latter is unable to play Saturday.

[shwang80]

Sweeps Update since last post:

12/20/2024 - Sacramento Kings
12/21/2024 - Portland Trail Blazers
12/21/2024 - Houston Rockets


One pick for today, but a bunch of games coming soon.

Chicago Bulls - (system shows 1Q odds +0.5)