Variance can make you look like a genius or a fool

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Gaze73
    SBR MVP
    • 01-27-14
    • 3291

    #1
    Variance can make you look like a genius or a fool
    Just noticed this while going through past results.

    28th Dec - Celtics - Pacers 142-105, fav won all quarters.
    30th Dec - Celtics - Pacers 114-123, fav won 1st quarter.

    No game on the 29th. A 46pt difference in the result between those two games. Hard to find profitable angles with such a variance. Taking Pacers in the first game would have made you look like an optimistic fool who likes to burn money. Taking them in the rematch would have made you look like a pro who knows his dogs. Maybe the lesson here is to take the dog after a blowout when they play against the same team back to back but I don't want to make conclusions based on one game.
  • VeggieDog
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-21-09
    • 7214

    #2
    It's crazy. I handicap the games carefully, pick an 8-point favorite, and they lose by 20.
    Comment
    • Gaze73
      SBR MVP
      • 01-27-14
      • 3291

      #3
      Originally posted by VeggieDog
      It's crazy. I handicap the games carefully, pick an 8-point favorite, and they lose by 20.
      Yeah and because of variance you don't know if it was a good pick that went wrong or just a bad pick. Making money on favs is hard in basketball, covering those spreads is not as easy as you'd expect.
      Comment
      • mjsuax13
        Moderator
        • 03-14-15
        • 24785

        #4
        Originally posted by VeggieDog
        It's crazy. I handicap the games carefully, pick an 8-point favorite, and they lose by 20.
        This.
        Comment
        • mjsuax13
          Moderator
          • 03-14-15
          • 24785

          #5
          Originally posted by Gaze73
          Yeah and because of variance you don't know if it was a good pick that went wrong or just a bad pick. Making money on favs is hard in basketball, covering those spreads is not as easy as you'd expect.
          Absolutely right in not knowing if it was a good/bad pick. Just a winner/loser. More losers for me when it comes to NBA.
          Comment
          • Gaze73
            SBR MVP
            • 01-27-14
            • 3291

            #6
            I picked one over in the whole NHL card and it finished 0-0, peak variance. 50% chance of over 5.5 the market said.
            Comment
            SBR Contests
            Collapse
            Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
            Collapse
            Working...