Hawks vs Magic NBA Play-In Prediction

**SBR Andy** · 04-14-25, 10:50 AM

Hawks vs Magic predictions from SBR's Phil Wood:

Under 217 (-110 DraftKings)

"These two teams met four times in the regular season, and only one of those games was decided by more than seven points. The teams each went 1-1 at home, so the Magic don’t have much of a homecourt advantage on Tuesday, even though the atmosphere should be better because it’s the postseason.

Though the Hawks scored at least 108 points in all four games against the Magic, I’m expecting them to score fewer than that against the top-scoring defense in the NBA. The Magic are allowing just 105.5 points per game this season, and though the Hawks are allowing the fourth-most points in the league (119.3), the home team will clamp down and keep this game lower scoring than the total suggests.

A low-scoring affair could mean trouble for the team’s leading scorers, Trae Young and Franz Wagner. Both players performed relatively well in this series during the regular season, but they each had one huge game that skewed their stats. And if players miss a lot of shots, Onyeka Okongwu could have another massive performance on the glass."

Trae Young Under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+135 bet365)

"Young didn’t play in Sunday’s game against the Magic, but in the previous three games against them, he averaged 28.3 points. That level of scoring success may lead many to believe that the sharpshooter was particularly successful from deep. However, he actually struggled from long range.

Young shot 34.0% from deep this season, but that average dropped to just 26.7% against the Magic. Though he made 3 or more 3-pointers in two of his three games against the Magic, he never made more than 4 in a game.

The Magic’s main defensive weakness is their 3-point defense. They rank 23rd in the league, allowing opponents to make 36.5% of their attempts from deep. However, the price of +135 being offered by bet365 provides great value. This price won’t last long, as most of our best sports betting apps have already set this line at 3.5. The Under for that number is very high but worth adding to a parlay."

Franz Wagner Under 25.5 points (-110 BetMGM)

"Because Wagner averaged 28.0 points per game against the Hawks this season, it’s likely bettors will be excited by this low total. However, on deeper inspection, it’s clear his Under is one of the best plays of the game.

Just one week ago, Wagner scored 22 points against the Hawks. Most concerning about that performance is how poorly he shot from the floor. He was just 8-of-20 from the field and 2-of-7 from deep despite playing 40 minutes.

Wagner scored 25 or fewer points in two of his three games against the Hawks this season, but thanks to a 37-point performance, his average against them is skewed. Don’t fall for the trap. Take Wagner’s Under in the lowest-scoring game these two teams will play."

Onyeka Okongwu Over 11.5 rebounds (-105 DraftKings)

"The Hawks’ leading rebounder averaged 8.9 rebounds per game this season, and he was even better against the Magic, averaging 9.3 in three games against them. Last Tuesday when they met, he recorded 14 boards in 40 minutes.

Okongwu recorded just 7 rebounds in each of his first two games against the Magic, but in a game that should feature more missed shots than usual, Okongwu will have more opportunities to clean up the glass. The Hawks have a clear rebounding advantage against the Magic, as they’re averaging 52.8 per game compared to just 50.7 got Orlando.

The price for this prop is slightly better than the typical -110, which makes sense considering this is much higher than his season average. Take advantage of that price while it lasts."

**dhristov211** · 04-14-25, 12:51 PM

Brick city... Under on points, Over and rebounds. I love this!

**SBR Andy** · 04-15-25, 08:36 AM

Hawks vs Magic player prop picks from SBR's Andrew Brennan:

Paolo Banchero Over 29.5 points (-112 FanDuel)

"Banchero took another massive leap in Year 3 after putting together an All-Star-caliber sophomore campaign. He averaged 25.9 points across 46 games, and after resting for Orlando's final regular-season contest, he should be ready to go in this one.

Of course, this is a huge total, but Banchero went absolutely nuclear to finish the season. He averaged 29.8 points in 15 March games, and his usage rate skyrocketed to 36% in a small sample of April contests.

A number of our other best NBA betting sites are already offering this points total at 30.5, with BetMGM juicing the Over more heavily than FanDuel is on this total one point lower.

With the Magic serving as favorites to officially become the No. 7 seed, I'm backing Banchero to have a monster performance."

Trae Young Under 10.5 assists (-140 bet365)

"Young led the league in assists per game this year with 11.6, marking a career high for the point guard. However, the Magic have proved a tough matchup for Young when it comes to racking up assists this season.

In three games against Orlando, he managed assist totals of eight, six, and 10, going Under this total in each of them.

We've already seen a ton of sharp movement to the Under on this total, as well, as Pinnacle was trading at odds as short as -196 at one point on Monday afternoon. It's beginning to settle back in at a price hovering around this one, but FanDuel has already moved the total to 9.5. Make sure you hit this Under before the line drops by an assist."

Caris LeVert Over 12.5 points (-110 BetMGM)

"The Hawks traded for LeVert at the deadline, and he shined in 26 games off the bench for Atlanta down the stretch. After averaging only 10.2 points with the Cleveland Cavaliers, LeVert managed 14.9 with the Hawks, and these are now the games they wanted him for.

LeVert's usage rate went up from 18.1% with Cleveland to 21.2% with Atlanta, as he was much more heavily relied upon with the second unit. That translated to roughly four more field-goal attempts per game, and he should have no problem going Over this number if that continues in the Play-In Tournament.

This prop opened at 11.5 points and is already at 13.5 at FanDuel, so be sure to bet this Over before the rest of our best sports betting sites follow suit."

**SBR Andy** · 04-15-25, 02:32 PM

Hawks vs Magic SGP picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Leg 1: Over 219 total points

"Contrasting styles are at play, with Atlanta producing one of the league's top paces while ranking second in the league to the Over this season at 50-31-1 (61.7%). Conversely, the Magic sit second from the bottom on Overs this year, hitting at only a 42.7% rate.

But even though we can expect Orlando to slow the pace, three of the four regular-season matchups between these teams reached 220-plus total points, with the other contest finishing right below this line at 218.

The combined scoring averages for the two sides equal 223.6, with the defenses allowing a combined average of 224.8 points per game."

Leg 2: Trae Young Over 26.5 points

"Trae Young missed the regular-season finale against Orlando to rest up for Tuesday’s play-in matchup. But Young totaled 28, 38, and 19 points while clearing this line twice over his three previous games against the Magic this season.

Young’s scoring should correlate to our belief that the Hawks continue to impose their pace on Orlando. He's surpassed this point total in 14 of his 27 career postseason games."

Leg 3: Paolo Banchero Under 8.5 rebounds

"Orlando ranks 19th in rebounding rate, according to ESPN’s John Hollinger. The Magic are only averaging 50.7 total rebounds per game as a team, which ranks 25th in the NBA.

While Paolo Banchero is a strong rebounder, he's cleared a line of 8.5 rebounds just 14 times out of 46 games played this season (30.4%). Though he’s exceeded this line in two of three matchups against Atlanta, the Hawks are generally in the top half of the league in limiting opposing rebounding."

Best SGP odds: +649 at FanDuel (Tip: Use the 50% profit boost to move this to +973)