Grizzlies vs Warriors NBA Play-In Prediction

**SBR Andy** · 04-14-25, 01:09 PM

Grizzlies vs Warriors predictions from SBR's Phil Wood:

Warriors -7 (-110 bet365)

"The Warriors won three of the four regular-season meetings between these two teams, including both of their home contests. Two of those three were eight-plus-point triumphs. Though the Grizzlies only won once, their victory was impressive, as they defeated the Warriors 144-93 just before Christmas.

All four games between these two teams were high-scoring, as every contest reached at least 234 points. Though defenses tend to clamp down during the postseason, it would be surprising to see two of the league's best scoring teams struggle on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are averaging 121.9 points per game, and while the Warriors are averaging just 113.8, they’ll benefit from facing a defense allowing 116.9.

Ultimately, the Warriors shouldn't struggle to handle the Grizzlies, just like they did during the regular season. Stephen Curry put up 52 points during the last meeting, and he should produce another significant game against a struggling defense.

Ja Morant will attempt to keep his Grizzlies in the contest, and elevated playing time for Zach Edey will make a huge difference down low. However, the Warriors are a more complete team, and at home they’re holding opponents to just 110.3 points per game.

I predict the Warriors will tally over 120 points for the fourth time against the Grizzlies this season, and they'll cover this spread in a high-scoring game."

Stephen Curry Over 5.5 made 3-pointers (+114 BetRivers)

"Curry put together one of his best performances of the season the last time he faced the Grizzlies. He knocked down 12 of his 20 3-point attempts en route to a 52-point performance. After a game like that, it may surprise some that his number is set at just 5.5 with a favorable price.

However, Curry didn’t shoot well against the Grizzlies in either of his other games against them this season. He scored just two points when facing Memphis in mid-December, and Curry went just 3-of-7 from long range during the first meeting

Curry averaged 4.4 threes per game this season, so this is a bit of risky play, but that's factored into the price. The Grizzlies don’t defend well, and they’re allowing opponents to make 36% of their threes this season. I’ll back him to succeed again after what Curry did against them on April 1."

Ja Morant Under 6.5 assists (-115 bet365)

"Morant averaged 7.3 assists per game during the regular season, but he didn’t enjoy a good April. He averaged just 5.8 assists per outing in five games during the month, and he’s recorded six or fewer assists in five of his last six games.

Additionally, Morant hasn’t been very successful at finding his teammates against the Warriors. He’s dished out a combined nine assists over two games against them, with his best performance coming on April 1 while assisting on six made baskets in 33 minutes.

Morant scored 36 against the Warriors earlier this month, and he’ll be more of a scorer than a passer again on Tuesday. The price for this Under is expensive at all or our best sports betting sites except bet365, where it's at -115 compared to the -130 or worse available elsewhere."

Zach Edey Over 10.5 rebounds (-115 BetMGM)

"Edey is set to make his first postseason appearance, and he’s entering Tuesday’s game on a tear. While he averaged 8.3 rebounds per game during the regular season, Edey brought that up to 15.7 over six April games. He’s pulled down at least 13 boards in five of his last six, and Edey grabbed 16 against the Warriors in their last meeting.

Normally, I’d shy away from taking a rookie to record two more than his average during a playoff debut. But the reason for Edey’s success is easily understood: He’s playing more minutes. Edey averaged 30.5 minutes per game in April. Before that stretch, he hadn’t played more than 30 minutes in a game all season.

The Grizzlies have geared up Edey for a playoff run, and he’s going to get plenty of playing time on Tuesday. That will lead to him easily topping this number, even against a solid rebounding team like the Warriors."

**ARCHIVADO98** · 04-14-25, 01:43 PM

Zach will eat

**SBR Andy** · 04-15-25, 08:59 AM

Grizzlies vs Warriors player prop picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Ja Morant Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+105 BetMGM)

" Morant is working through some things when it comes to how he celebrates 3-pointers. But regardless of the celly, we like the Memphis point guard to drop several from deep during Tuesday’s play-in game against Golden State.

Though Golden State rates favorably in defensive efficiency, the Warriors sit 19th in the NBA in opposing 3-point percentage. Morant went 5-for-8 from distance on April 1 against the Warriors, and he’s knocked down three-plus triples in four out of his last five games."

Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 points (-120 BetMGM)

"While the Warriors rank 17th in points per game (113.9) with a .500 mark against the total, games involving Memphis go Over 56.1% of the time. Despite the team's solid defensive efficiency, the Grizzlies’ top-ranked pace factor in the NBA leads to 116.9 points per game for their opponents. That sits near the bottom leaguewide.

Memphis’ pace is a primary reason I lean Over on the 228.5-point total, and top scorers for both sides should benefit from the game environment.

With the Warriors being the 7-point favorites, we like Butler to maintain his recent scoring output, reaching a point total he's eclipsed in three straight contests heading into Tuesday."

Stephen Curry Over 5.5 assists (-105 bet365)

"Memphis permits 26.9 assists per game to its opponents, ranking 17th in the NBA in the category. Curry leads the Warriors in assists while averaging six per game.

We’ve seen Curry dial up six-plus assists in seven of his past 10 games, including eight against the Grizzlies on April 1.

Curry should be able to share the basketball effectively given Memphis’ relative weakness against opposing assists combined with our anticipated pace for the game."

**SBR Andy** · 04-15-25, 02:35 PM

Grizzlies vs Warriors SGP picks from SBR's Phil Wood:

Leg 1: Zach Edey Over 10.5 rebounds

"Of all the player props I covered in my best Grizzlies vs. Warriors prediction earlier this week, this is the one I’m most excited about adding to this parlay. The price has increased to -132 at our best sports betting sites, which is why this is now much more enticing as a parlay option rather than a straight bet.

Edey managed to lead the Grizzlies in rebounds per game, despite playing an average of just 21.5 minutes per game this season. But the Grizzlies upped his minutes in April, and he’s averaged over 30 per game for the month. In those extra minutes, Edey has been incredibly productive, as he’s pulled down at least 13 boards in five of six games. Playing over 30 minutes tonight, look for him to have similar success on the glass."

Leg 2: Brandin Podziemski Under 26.5 P+R+A

"Considering Podziemski’s averages, it’s a little shocking to see this total set so high. During the regular season, he averaged 11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. In three games against the Grizzlies this season, he only averaged 13.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, so he has no clear advantage in this matchup.

Perhaps this number is higher because Podziemski has played well over his last 10 games. He’s entering the postseason averaging 17.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game since March 28. But on April 1, Podziemski managed just 8 points, five rebounds, and 1 assist against the Grizzlies, so even during his best stretch of the season, he still struggled against tonight’s opponent. For a standard price, this Under provides great value."

Leg 3: Ja Morant Over 26.5 points

"While Morant is averaging 23.2 points per game this season, he did score 36 against the Warriors earlier this month. That game was a massive improvement from the 9 points he scored against them on December 19.

While that performance from earlier in the season is worrying, there’s no way the Grizzlies can stay in this game without a big game from Morant. In April, he’s averaging 30.2 points per game, and he’s scored at least 28 in four of his last five. The Warriors have the eighth-ranked scoring defense in the league, but Morant has proven he can score against anyone.

Additionally, while Morant only averaged 17.8 field goal attempts per game this season, he’s attempted at least 20 in eight consecutive games. More opportunities in a high-scoring game like this one bode very well for him."

Best SGP Odds: +590 at Betrivers