Mavericks vs Kings NBA Play-In Prediction

**SBR Andy** · 04-16-25, 09:07 AM

Mavericks vs Kings predictions from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Mavs +4.5 (-105 Caesars)

"While the Mavs' defensive metrics from the past six weeks leave much to be desired, Davis and Co. will be motivated Wednesday to play elite defensive basketball, which should be enough for the Mavs to keep things close. I'm going one further and calling a Mavericks outright win."

Under 216 (-114 FanDuel)

"Nico Harrison wants the Mavs to win with defense. While the Mavs have, ironically, been Over wagons since the big trade went down, things have calmed slightly in recent weeks. Dallas is 4-4-1 on Overs across its last nine games.

The scoring averages for Dallas and Sacramento combine to equal 230. That the total sits at just 216 tells me the oddsmakers are inclined to see a more responsible and relentless Dallas defense in an altogether more meaningful contest."

**SBR Andy** · 04-16-25, 09:09 AM

Mavericks vs Kings player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Domantas Sabonis to record a triple-double (+700 DraftKings)

"Sabonis has recorded a double-double in 61 of his 70 appearances this season. He's trading at -650 with our best sports betting apps to make it 62 in 71, so we're being a bit more ambitious with this pick. We're recommending Sabonis to record a triple-double at two-star confidence because of the value it presents.

The Sacramento big man has taken a step back in the triple-double department, posting just 10 during the regular season. He's tallying double digits in three categories at a 14.29% clip. This number tells us he should have odds around +600 to record another against Dallas, but DraftKings is offering some value at +700.

Sabonis hasn't recorded a triple-double against the Mavericks this season, but he has gotten close. He averaged 16.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game across his two duels with Dallas. If he notches his first against this opponent, a $10 winning wager would return $70 in profits."

Klay Thompson Under 13.5 points (-118 BetMGM)

"It doesn't need to be said that Dallas misses Kyrie Irving. However, nobody is feeling the impact of the elite playmaker's absence as much as Thompson. The catch-and-shoot two-guard has suffered statistically since Irving's torn ACL, enduring his worst scoring month of the season thus far (9.2 PPG) in April.

Thompson has gone Under this total in eight of his last 13 games over the last month, including single-digit scoring outputs in three of the last five and one of two this season against Sacramento. We're still fading Thompson, but we recommend this play at three-star confidence due to his postseason pedigree from years past."

DeMar DeRozan Under 24.5 points (-120 FanDuel)

"DeRozan is showing no signs of slowing down as a scorer, averaging 20-plus points for the 12th consecutive campaign during his debut season in Sacramento. All of that being said, his point total is too high for our taste against Dallas.

DeRozan has averaged over 25 points over three meetings with the Mavericks this year, despite clearing the total just once in a 42-point effort in February. However, he's gone Under at a 60% clip over his last 10 appearances and in 11 of his last 15 postseason outings dating back to 2018."