Heat vs Hawks NBA Play-In Prediction

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 09:19 AM

Heat vs Hawks prediction from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Heat ML (+100 ESPN BET)

"Some simply perform better when the lights are brighter. Jimmy Butler and LeBron James are two examples of individuals who possess this trait, so it's no surprise that both played for an organization (Miami) with that DNA, as well. We've witnessed it time and time again from Spoelstra's teams, and we saw it on Wednesday.

As we noted earlier, the Hawks don't want to get into a defensive duel, so they'll try and play an up-tempo, high-scoring game. The Heat are perfectly fine playing this way, especially when Tyler Herro and Co. are shooting as well as they have been recently. We'll take a gamble on Miami at even money."

Under 219 (-110 DraftKings)

"Atlanta, boasting one of the league's best offenses and worst defenses, has been an automatic Over this season. Miami is no slouch either, with a 44-39 lean to the Over. However, postseason basketball is a different beast, as evidenced by both play-in games involving these teams going Under.

These Over/Under records, combined with the fact that these teams combined to go Over this total in three of four games this season, will lead to the public jumping all over the Over. We're fading them in hopes the defensive basketball we outlined above plays out on the court.

Our recommendation is to wait and see if the public sways the total closer to tipoff, with DraftKings listing an O/U of 219 at standard juice"

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 09:21 AM

Heat vs Hawks player prop picks from SBR's Andrew Brennan:

Tyler Herro Under 36.5 P+R+A (-110 DraftKings)

"Herro exploded during the first play-in game against the Bulls, scoring 38 points to go along with five rebounds and four assists (47 PRA). However, we're using that to our advantage while attacking the Under on a now-inflated total.

The guard averaged right around 34 PRA for the season, which came on career highs in minutes, field-goal attempts, points, and assists.

Some of our best NBA betting sites have already moved this total to 35.5, while those still at 36.5 are juicing the Under much more significantly than DraftKings. You're probably going to see this total listed at 35.5 everywhere if you wait until Friday to bet this, so act quickly before that happens."

Onyeka Okongwu Over 14.5 points (+100 DraftKings)

"Okongwu averaged only 13.4 points per game this season, but he stepped up his scoring output during the second half of the campaign. He averaged at least 15 points per game in each of February and March, and Okongwu was way up at 16.1 during seven regular-season games in April.

We're getting a great price through DraftKings, as several of the best sports betting sites are offering this Over at odds hovering around -115. Essentially, via these odds, we're being told it's a coin flip that Okongwu will score at least 15 points, but all the data points to his chances of doing so being much higher.

Okongwu managed only 11 points in the loss to the Magic, and I expect him to be one of a few Hawks players with a major bounce-back performance on Friday night."

Davion Mitchell Under 6.5 assists (-130 bet365)

"Mitchell really stepped up as a facilitator during April. But he averaged only 6.7 assists even then, which were his most of any month this season.

This line is so inflated because Mitchell racked up nine assists off the bench against the Bulls. Therefore, it's not surprising to see some of our best sports betting apps pricing this Under at extremely short odds. FanDuel is all the way at -162, while Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is at -167 after opening at -108.

I'm not worried about Mitchell producing a repeat performance, and I expect him to settle in around five or six assists on Friday night."

**Headsterx** · 04-18-25, 08:29 PM

We got OT!

**BHExchange** · 04-18-25, 08:36 PM

Eric Spoelstra's genius > Trae Young's individual talent