Mavericks vs Grizzlies NBA Play-In Prediction

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 09:26 AM

Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Mavericks +6.5 (-105 ESPN BET)

"This is a Dallas team Memphis hasn't seen before. The Mavericks will be brimming with confidence after winning outright as underdogs against the Sacramento Kings, and they find themselves in a similar spot here. Davis is a game-changer in the post, something Dallas has been missing in its last three losses to the Grizzlies.

The Mavericks are trading at -105 to cover the spread at ESPN BET. A $10 bet would return $9.52 if the visitors can pick up their 40th win against the spread this season."

Over 222 (-110 Caesars)

"Memphis and Dallas boast the sixth- and seventh-best Over percentages in the league at 56.6% and 56.1%, respectively. They've combined to go Over in 93 of their 166 games. While they only went Over once in four meetings this season, the other three totals were astronomically high, clocking in with an average of 236.

These teams combined to go for 223 in their lowest-scoring matchup of the campaign, so we'll side with the season-long trends and predict them to do it again."

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 09:28 AM

Mavericks vs Grizzlies player prop picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Ja Morant Over 26.5 points (-128 FanDuel)

"Ja Morant is the polarizing engine of Memphis' offense. We predict a robust scoring effort for the Grizzlies, who lead the NBA while averaging 123.4 points per game at home. With that in mind, we're also eyeing Morant to drive the bus in this matchup.

Morant dropped 31 on the Mavs both times he faced them this season. He was held out of the matchup earlier this week, meaning Dallas didn’t get a chance to shore up its defensive strategy against him for this key matchup.

FanDuel still lists this prop at 26.5 points, but we would take it at 27.5 if the best sports betting sites collectively keep pushing this number higher."

Zach Edey Under 12.5 rebounds (-120 DraftKings)

"Zach Edey’s rebounding total is so high for this game presumably because of season trends. Dallas permits 53.2 rebounds per game to its opponents, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. But with Edey averaging only 8.3 rebounds per game on the season, we suspect this total might be too aggressive.

Edey is coming off a 17-rebound effort against the Golden State Warriors in the first play-in game, and he grabbed 12 boards on March 7 against Dallas. However, Anthony Davis was absent for that game.

The rookie can handle Derreck Lively down low. But if Davis is motivated to fly around and challenge for rebounds, I'm skeptical about this number for Edey."

Anthony Davis Over 38.5 points +rebounds (-118 FanDuel)

"If there’s one Dallas player we can expect to still produce a strong outing even in a losing effort, it’s the future Hall of Famer who's been universally dumped on after one of the most scrutinized trades in sports history.

While Davis piled up only 36 points + rebounds during the Mavs’ first play-in win, this game won’t go as smoothly for Dallas. So look for AD to try to shoulder the load much more. His season points + rebounds average is 37.6, and we like him to assert his will against Jaren Jackson Jr. while boosting himself slightly above that average here."