Grizzlies vs Thunder Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:01 AM

Grizzlies vs Thunder Game 1 predictions from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Thunder -13 (-110 DraftKings)

"Oklahoma City’s massive advantage in net rating - eight points per 100 possessions - may not be as wide as the spread for this game, but that shouldn’t matter in Game 1 of this series. Memphis is coming in with a rest disadvantage, and while they are 11-9 against the spread in such situations this year, Oklahoma City is a dominant 10-5-1 against the spread with a rest advantage.

While home favorites are usually overrated, Oklahoma City has been consistently underrated in such spots this year. They’re 27-12-2 against the spread as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 15.2, good for an average cover margin of 4.4. Meanwhile, Memphis is a thoroughly unimpressive 10-11-1 against the spread as a road underdog.

Oklahoma City swept Memphis in the regular season with wins of 13 and 17 points on the road and 24 and 19 points at home. Lock in the -13 and root for a blowout."

Under 227.5 (-110 FanDuel)

"Although we’ve got two lightning-fast teams on the floor to kick off Sunday’s action, I’m partial to the Under, largely because I don’t trust the Grizzlies to hold up their end of the bargain. With a spread of -13 favoring Oklahoma City, the implied final tally for this game is 120.3-107.3.

The Grizzlies surpassed 107.3 in just one of their three games versus the Thunder in the regular season. While the Thunder picked up the slack and got three of their four meetings over the current total, I expect a slow fourth quarter as Oklahoma City grinds out a Game 1 win, keeping us under this lofty projection."

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:01 AM

The Thunder blowout the Grizzlies in Game 1 by a score of 131-80.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Thunder -8000 / Grizzlies +2200

**SBR Andy** · 04-22-25, 12:28 PM

Grizzlies vs Thunder Game 2 prediction from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Thunder -14.5 (-110 Caesars)

"To fully understand how lopsided this series is, look at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s stat line from Sunday. The likely MVP finished with 15 points on 4-of-13 shooting, recording five assists and three rebounds. The league’s scoring champion was limited to his lowest offensive output of the year, yet his team still won by 51.

Of course, the Grizzlies faced a challenging travel situation after playing Friday’s play-in game. However, it’s hard to envision them containing SGA for another game in this series.

The Thunder won’t win another game by 50-plus points, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more blowouts by the end of the week."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points (-114 FanDuel)

"I’ll buy any dip on SGA’s scoring prop, especially in this matchup. The Grizzlies play at an up tempo pace, providing more opportunities for the Thunder and their MVP guard to score.

Before Sunday’s performance, Gilgeous-Alexander had cleared his scoring prop in four straight games against Memphis. He averaged 36.25 points per game in four regular-season meetings against the Grizzlies.

This line is as high as 32.5 in the market, suggesting the value on FanDuel’s total for SGA."

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 08:13 AM

The Thunder dominate again in Game 2 by a score of 118-99.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Thunder -20000 / Grizzlies +4000