Magic vs Celtics Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:05 AM

Magic vs Celtics Game 1 prediction from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Magic +14 (-110 DraftKings)

"Although the data suggests this Celtics team is less efficient than last year’s, the books don’t expect a close game. Sure, Orlando’s offense has seriously struggled with efficiency - the Magic are a dreadful 21st in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break (112.7) - but 3-point shooting variance could sink Boston. The Orlando defense’s success at limiting looks like the ones that Boston loves to take makes this all the more important.

The Celtics should probably not be getting a whopping 14 points in this spot. Both sides of this matchup are playing at a bottom-two pace since the break, so there won’t be many extra possessions for the Celtics to build a big lead. The Celtics are just 38-43-1 against the spread this year and 18-23 against the spread as a home favorite."

Under 206 (-112 FanDuel)

"The books are giving Boston an implied total of 110, a number they reached in just one of their games against Orlando. The combination of a slow pace and Orlando’s excellent perimeter defense makes the under a buy for me. While I’m more sympathetic to backing Boston’s team total Under 110.5 for -115 at DraftKings, the 206 has some value, too."

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:02 AM

The Celtics dominate the second half of Game 1, winning 103-86.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Celtics -8000 / Magic +2200

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 02:17 PM

Magic vs Celtics Game 2 prediction from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Under 197.5 (-110 FanDuel)

"The Celtics have been turning the screws to opposing offenses in their gear-up for the postseason, and it carried into Game 1 as Boston held Orlando to 86 points behind its array of elite defenders.

Because the Celtics and Magic both play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, there wasn’t a ton of upward mobility for Boston’s scoring output in the matchup, which totaled just 189 points.

Though we were surprised by the extent to which scoring outputs were muted in the opener, it could be a window into the style of play we should come to expect when these defensive-minded teams get together for these types of meaningful games. Orlando and Boston allow the two fewest per-game scoring totals to their respective opponents across the NBA this season.

Orlando actually allows a lower opposing scoring total in its road games than it does at home, so we see a lane for a similar outcome to Sunday in Game 2 between two teams who are tied for the fewest offensive possessions per game in the league (99.6)."

Wendell Carter Jr. Under 8.5 rebounds (-125 DraftKings)

"Boston ran a touch below its season shooting percentage in Game 1 - perhaps allowing for some additional rebounding chances for Carter, who cleaned up with 13 boards.

That’s far-and-away the best rebounding output that Carter has enjoyed in his matchups against the Celtics this season. In three other appearances against Boston, he finished with 3, 9, and 7 rebounds.

Naturally, limited possessions in these games should lead to decreased rebounding possibilities. Leading up to Game 1, Carter had fallen short of this mark in eight of his last nine games, suggesting his outlier effort in Game 1 has inflated the line for today's game."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-28T14:37:16+00:00

The Celtics win Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series.

Updated series odds from DraftKings: Celtics -20000 / Magic +5500

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-29T14:25:45+00:00

Magic vs Celtics Game 5 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Celtics -11 (-110 DraftKings)

"Game 1 was the only one of the four games in this series thus far decided by more than nine points. While that would suggest the Magic have made the necessary adjustments to remain competitive in this series, I expect Boston’s champion mindset to be on display as they close out the series in convincing fashion to justify their NBA championship odds.

The Celtics' moneyline odds are too steep to back, even though it is a five-star play. History says Boston has almost no chance of blowing this 3-1 series lead, as it is 44-1 all-time in best-of-seven series when taking a 2-0 series lead, while Orlando has not won any of its seven such series when trailing 2-0.

Paolo Banchero entered Game 4 with the fifth-highest point per game average (28.6) of any player in their first 10 career playoff games. But the Magic failed to cover the 7.5-point spread on Sunday despite his 31 points. They have the look of a team that is a one-man show after Banchero took 36.3% of the team’s shots in the latest loss.

The scary thing for Magic fans is that Boston only got six bench points and shot just 29% from the 3-point line in the Game 4 win and cover.

The 3-point line should be a huge difference in this game, especially since Orlando had the third-worst 3-point percentage defense among playoff teams in the regular season, while the Celtics have allowed an NBA-best 28% from beyond the arc in the postseason.

This line has come down from -12 and -12.5 at some of our best sports betting apps, but that does not deter me from laying the points with the home favorites."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-29T14:43:09+00:00

Magic vs Celtics Game 5 player prop picks from SBR's Phil Wood:

Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 points (-106 Caesars)

"The only reason not to back Tatum in this game is if you think the Celtics are going to win by so much that he will rest for the majority of the fourth quarter to get ready for the next round. But the Magic have been battling this series, and they’re not going to make it easy for the Celtics tonight.

Tatum has scored at least 36 in back-to-back games, so it’s shocking to see this number set as low as it is. The Magic have the best scoring defense in the league, and Tatum only averaged 26.8 points per game this season, but what he’s done in Games 3 and 4 trumps all of that.

Some of our best sports betting apps have this number set at 26.5, but I’ll take Over 27.5 for the better price, as I expect Tatum to score at least 30 again."

Franz Wagner Over 4.5 assists (+130 DraftKings)

"Wagner has dished out at least five assists in three of his four games in this series. In his last two games, he’s recorded at least seven, and in his least productive game of the series, he still managed four assists. Yet, it seems that oddsmakers don’t care about any of this, as all of our best sportsbooks have the price for this Over set at +115 or better.

Wagner only played against the Celtics once during the regular season, and he managed only two assists in that game. But I’m disregarding that performance, because Wagner has proven in this postseason that he can find his teammates even in low-scoring games. With this game being played in Boston, the odds may be closer to a 50-50 play, but the Over is certainly more likely to hit than the 43.48% probability the price suggests."

Kristaps Prozingis Over 23.5 points & rebounds (-105 BetMGM)

"Porzingis has only topped this total once in this series, and he fell just short with 24 points and rebounds in Sunday’s win. However, Porzingis looked like his usual self in that game, as the Celtics managed to get him more involved in the offensive game plan.

Porzingis averaged 19.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game this season. He’s scored at least 19 points in two games in this series, and he’s only pulled down fewer than six rebounds once. Averages will come into play in this game, and he will pull down at least seven rebounds, but the price for Over 6.5 is -135 or worse at every sportsbook. Therefore, back Porzingis to have a solid game all around, as this combo prop offers better odds than soloing his rebounds or points."