Heat vs Cavaliers Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:09 AM

Heat vs Cavs Game 1 prediction from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Heat +12.5 (-108 DraftKings)

"While these aren’t the Heat that made the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed - and these aren’t the Cavaliers that folded like a cheap suit against the Knicks in 2023 and the Celtics in 2024 - I have a hard time believing the spread of 12.5 is a fair number. The Heat enter this game after back-to-back wins in the play-in tournament and are playing very efficient basketball. The Cavs just took a bunch of games off down the stretch.

A number of trends raise some red flags, but I’m willing to dismiss them due to just how many points we’re getting. Cleveland is an impressive 22-17-1 against the spread when listed as a home favorite, winning by an average margin of 12 and covering by an average margin of 2.3. Cleveland is also an NBA-best 14-4 against the spread with a rest advantage, winning by an average margin of 12.4. Those margins are both within the 12.5-point spread."

Over 214.5 (-108 Bet Rivers)

"I will freely admit that I don’t have a good read on this total. Miami’s postseason rotation looks a lot better than what we saw in the regular season on both ends of the floor, and with their implied team total sitting at just 101, the over is intriguing. The Heat scored 106 in regulation against the Hawks and 109 against the Bulls.

Cleveland’s offense should still generate some points, especially when the pick-and-roll ball handlers choose to pull up. I don’t think that will be enough for them to separate from Miami, though, so look for a close game down the stretch, forcing this one over the reasonable total of 214.5."

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:03 AM

The Cavs controlled the 1st and 4th quarters of Game 1 on route to a 121-100 victory.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Cavaliers -4000 / Heat +1500

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-23T19:18:43+00:00

Heat vs Cavaliers Game 2 prediction from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Heat +12.5 (-112 FanDuel)

"Although it was a difficult travel spot for the Heat, the Cavaliers didn’t put the game away until a 34-point fourth quarter.

Jerome scored 16 of his 28 points in the final period and was one of three Cleveland players to flirt with 30 on Sunday along with Donovan Mitchell (30) and Darius Garland (27).

The Cavaliers have too much talent for this to be a competitive series, though I expect the Heat to push them until the very end with extra rest before Game 2.

The spread for Miami has dropped as low as +12 across the best sports betting apps, so this line is worth grabbing at FanDuel before tipoff. The Heat have covered the spread in four of their last six head-to-head matchups against the Cavs."

Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 rebounds (+105 BetMGM)

"After sweeping our Heat vs. Cavaliers props in Game 1, I’m returning to the well with my favorite play, even though the Over on Wiggins’ rebounds line has gone from +124 to +105 since the opener.

It's still worth betting this line at BetMGM after Wiggins grabbed six rebounds in the loss to Cleveland on Sunday. He has now secured 23 rebounds over his past three games, which included two impressive play-in performances.

Wiggins is leaning into his athleticism, and the Heat need that to create any advantage in this matchup."