Heat vs Cavaliers Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:09 AM

Heat vs Cavs Game 1 prediction from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Heat +12.5 (-108 DraftKings)

"While these aren’t the Heat that made the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed - and these aren’t the Cavaliers that folded like a cheap suit against the Knicks in 2023 and the Celtics in 2024 - I have a hard time believing the spread of 12.5 is a fair number. The Heat enter this game after back-to-back wins in the play-in tournament and are playing very efficient basketball. The Cavs just took a bunch of games off down the stretch.

A number of trends raise some red flags, but I’m willing to dismiss them due to just how many points we’re getting. Cleveland is an impressive 22-17-1 against the spread when listed as a home favorite, winning by an average margin of 12 and covering by an average margin of 2.3. Cleveland is also an NBA-best 14-4 against the spread with a rest advantage, winning by an average margin of 12.4. Those margins are both within the 12.5-point spread."

Over 214.5 (-108 Bet Rivers)

"I will freely admit that I don’t have a good read on this total. Miami’s postseason rotation looks a lot better than what we saw in the regular season on both ends of the floor, and with their implied team total sitting at just 101, the over is intriguing. The Heat scored 106 in regulation against the Hawks and 109 against the Bulls.

Cleveland’s offense should still generate some points, especially when the pick-and-roll ball handlers choose to pull up. I don’t think that will be enough for them to separate from Miami, though, so look for a close game down the stretch, forcing this one over the reasonable total of 214.5."

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:03 AM

The Cavs controlled the 1st and 4th quarters of Game 1 on route to a 121-100 victory.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Cavaliers -4000 / Heat +1500

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 02:18 PM

Heat vs Cavaliers Game 2 prediction from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Heat +12.5 (-112 FanDuel)

"Although it was a difficult travel spot for the Heat, the Cavaliers didn’t put the game away until a 34-point fourth quarter.

Jerome scored 16 of his 28 points in the final period and was one of three Cleveland players to flirt with 30 on Sunday along with Donovan Mitchell (30) and Darius Garland (27).

The Cavaliers have too much talent for this to be a competitive series, though I expect the Heat to push them until the very end with extra rest before Game 2.

The spread for Miami has dropped as low as +12 across the best sports betting apps, so this line is worth grabbing at FanDuel before tipoff. The Heat have covered the spread in four of their last six head-to-head matchups against the Cavs."

Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 rebounds (+105 BetMGM)

"After sweeping our Heat vs. Cavaliers props in Game 1, I’m returning to the well with my favorite play, even though the Over on Wiggins’ rebounds line has gone from +124 to +105 since the opener.

It's still worth betting this line at BetMGM after Wiggins grabbed six rebounds in the loss to Cleveland on Sunday. He has now secured 23 rebounds over his past three games, which included two impressive play-in performances.

Wiggins is leaning into his athleticism, and the Heat need that to create any advantage in this matchup."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-28T14:23:32+00:00

Cavaliers vs Heat Game 4 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Heat +8.5 (-108 FanDuel)

"Cleveland’s 124-87 win over Miami in Game 3 was the franchise’s third-largest win in playoff history. The Cavaliers are rightful big favorites, having beaten the Heat five straight times dating back to the regular season.

While holding out Darius Garland with a toe sprain in Game 3 did not hurt Cleveland, I would expect the road favorites to keep him out again, which Miami should take advantage of. In addition, Heat duo Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have postseason experience, and we trust their veteran leadership will help the team play inspired.

This is Miami’s third elimination game of the playoffs, dating back to the play-in rounds, and Erik Spoelstra is too good of a coach not to be able to scheme something up to have his team playing more competitively.

The Heat were within one possession of the Cavaliers with three minutes to go on the road in Game 2, so bettors should not lose sight of the fact that they have shown they can compete.

I love the contrarian nature of this play with Miami coming off a 37-point loss. The fact that 61% of bettors have backed the favored Cavaliers, but the line has not budged from an opening number of +8.5, which suggests there is sharp action on the home underdogs."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-28T14:26:17+00:00

Cavaliers vs Heat Game 4 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Ty Jerome Over 3.5 assists (-130 DraftKings)

"Jerome generated a lot of buzz this year as an NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds contender, but he isn't exactly known for being a distributor. The 2019 first-round pick averaged just 3.4 assists this season, clearing this total in 50% of his appearances.

He notched a season-high 11 helpers during Cleveland's 37-point win in Game 3, stepping into the role of facilitator for the injured Darius Garland. Garland is listed as questionable tonight, but after the Cavaliers posted a blowout win in Game 3, even if he goes, it won't be for long.

We're banking on Jerome playing some more serious minutes as Cleveland looks to complete the series sweep on enemy turf. Miami is allowing 26.4 assists per game, which is the fourth-most of the remaining playoff teams. A $10 wager returns $7.69 if Jerome cashes this prop for a second consecutive outing."

Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points (-106 FanDuel)

"Herro struggled massively in Game 3, posting just 13 points on 5-13 shooting. It was the Miami star's lowest scoring output since March 21 and the first time he failed to make more than one 3-pointer since March 31.

However, oddsmakers don't expect these shooting woes to carry over into Game 4, with our best sports betting apps listing Herro's total at O/U 24.5 points.

The 25-year-old has been sensational in big games this season. He notably scored 38 and 30 points in the Heat's two do-or-die play-in tournament games, and he's cleared 25 points in three of his last five. Herro's pride and Miami's dignity are on the line tonight, so expect him to lead by example and keep the game competitive."

De'Andre Hunter Over 12.5 points (-105 BetMGM)

"Hunter was a key acquisition for the Cavaliers midseason, and although it took him a bit to settle into his new home, he looks fully acclimated in his role. He struggled in the scoring department in Game 1, posting a goose egg after shooting 0-for-4 from the field.

However, Hunter's rebounded - figuratively, not literally - nicely. He's drained 10 of his 18 shots across the last two games, tallying a total of 33 points.

The forward's 28 minutes in Game 3 led to an increased scoring output as he notched 21 points. This is exactly the type of performance we expect from him in a closeout game, with Garland's questionable availability. Hunter is -105 at our best sportsbooks to go Over 12.5 points for a second straight showing."