Warriors vs Rockets Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:13 AM

Warriors vs Rockets Game 1 predictions from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Rockets -1 (-110 FanDuel)

"If Steve Kerr has one million haters, I’m one of them. If Steve Kerr has five haters, I’m one of them. If Steve Kerr has zero haters, then–well, you know the rest. Kerr has done nothing of note without the greatest shooter in NBA history, Stephen Curry, and while this Curry-Jimmy Butler tandem is terrifying in the postseason, let’s not forget that these two have 72 years between them.

While the Rockets have had some time to get fresh, the Warriors have had zero games off. Houston enters this game at a considerable rest advantage. The Golden State Warriors are just 8-12-2 against the spread with a rest disadvantage, with an average margin of -0.6. And, for all the virtues of postseason Curry and Butler, Kerr’s Warriors are a dismal 5-8 against the spread in the playoffs since the 2022-23 season."

Over 213.5 (-110 FanDuel)

"I don’t love the total here, but with Houston 33-18 to the over in conference games and 12-5 to the over when playing with a rest advantage, I can’t help but believe in the over. Houston’s offense should be able to take advantage of Golden State’s defensive weaknesses against post-ups and putbacks, and while that won’t lead to a ton of extra points, it could lead to enough to get us over this number. Furthermore, with a competitive fourth quarter likely ahead, don’t expect either side to play at an aggressively slow pace."

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 08:04 AM

The Warriors' defense shines in Game 1, holding the Rockets to just 85 points for a 10 point win.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Warriors -380 / Rockets +300

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by SBR Andy

The Warriors' defense shines in Game 1, holding the Rockets to just 85 points for a 10 point win.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Warriors -380 / Rockets +300

Tempted to sprinkle on Houston at +300.

Game 1 was concerning but was really that 2nd quarter that did them in. Young team getting their playoff footing.

21% from 3, 55% from the line and 16 turnovers. Those numbers will improve and they are favored in Game 2.

**SBR Andy** · 04-23-25, 02:20 PM

Warriors vs Rockets Game 2 prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Rockets -2.5 (-110 DraftKings)

"None of the games between these two teams have gone Over 203 points since the Warriors defeated the Rockets 127-121 on Nov. 2. While defense was on display during the Warriors' 95-85 win on Sunday, this total is set too low for me to confidently back the Under, even if that's the most likely outcome.

Instead, the best play of this game is backing the Rockets to cover 2.5 points. The spread opened with the Rockets as just 1.5-point favorites, and it's since been growing to 2.5 or 3 at our best sports betting sites, despite 55% of the public backing the Warriors. That signals oddsmakers are happy with the action they’re seeing, and the books think the Rockets will find a way to win this game.

But they'll need to slow down Stephen Curry, who recorded 31 points in Game 1. Curry went 5-of-9 from 3-point range, which was an especially impressive performance since the Rockets allowed the second-fewest threes per game this season.

Meanwhile, Alperen Sengun led the Rockets during Game 1. While I expect Sengun to struggle more on Wednesday, every other Rockets scorer has plenty of room to improve after a disappointing Game 1. The 3-point defense will clamp down, and players like Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks will wake up to help the Rockets even the series before heading to San Francisco."

Alperen Sengun Under 20.5 points (-115 DraftKings)

"Sengun was phenomenal in Game 1 while leading the Rockets with 26 points over 36 minutes. He went 11-of-18 shooting from the field, with 10 of his made baskets coming from inside the arc. While the performance was great, there are a few reasons to fade Sengun in Game 2.

He's averaging just 19.1 points per game, and Sengun tallied more than 19 just once across four regular-season contests against the Warriors. The Warriors are allowing only 45.7 points per game in the paint, which is third-best in the league. Since that’s where Sengun does most of his damage, it’s hard to imagine him being successful in two straight outings.

And most players are going to score below their season averages given how low-scoring the Warriors-Rockets matchups have been. The Rockets will need a different approach in Game 2 as well since their Game 1 plan didn’t work. That likely means a reduction in touches for Sengun, leading to his points prop going Under."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-28T17:03:01+00:00

Rockets vs Warriors Game 4 prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Under 203 (-110 bet365)

"Stephen Curry dropped 36 points in Game 3, as the Warriors took a 2-1 series lead. After watching that performance, the question entering Game 4 is whether the Rockets have any answer for Curry. While they have a balanced attack, with five players averaging in double figures, their leading scorer, Alperen Sengun, is averaging 19.3 points during the postseason, and no one scored more than 17 for them in Game 3.

All of these games have been close in the fourth quarter, but the Warriors have been able to win games because they have Curry, while the Rockets struggle to find a clutch finisher who can put the game away. Nothing has changed since Game 3, so I expect the Warriors to have the advantage in this one as well, as they win and just barely cover the spread.

That said, the Under is the best play of this game. The Warriors opened at 4.5-point favorites, and despite 60% of bettors backing them against the spread, the line has dropped to 3.5. This is worrisome, as it suggests that oddsmakers are happy with the public backing the Warriors. I still think the Warriors win and cover, but be wary.

All four of these games have featured totals of 203 or less. Two of the games failed to hit 200 points. At this point, it’s clear that the defensive performances of these two teams aren’t flukes. The Warriors have yet to score more than 104 points in a game in this series, and the Rockets have been held to 93 or fewer in two of the three.

Even if one team pulls away, look for this total to stay below 200. All three games in this series have been decided by at least 10 points, yet the losing team hasn’t gotten close to 100 points. That will be the case again tonight."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-04-28T17:55:09+00:00

Rockets vs Warriors Game 4 player prop picks from SBR's Brenden Schaeffer:

Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 rebounds (-135 BetMGM)

"Golden State ranks in the middle of the pack (17th) in allowing 52.5 rebounds per game to its opponents this season. Over the three games in this series, that number has jumped to 61.0 rebounds per game.

Sengun has tallied rebounding totals of 16 and 11 over his last two contests after averaging 10.3 boards per game on the year. We like the Houston big man to clear 10.5 rebounds again at these manageable odds via BetMGM considering the rebounding environment in the series thus far."

Steph Curry Over 4.5 made 3-pointers (+102 FanDuel)

"Buddy Hield shot an abnormally high rate of 3-pointers (5-for-11) in Game 3, but we’re looking to the always steady Curry as a reliable source of triples in Game 4. Curry has cleared this line in two of three games in the series, landing just below it with four makes in Game 2.

Curry averaged 10.3 attempts from 3-point range with 4.7 makes per game on the season. He has attempted no fewer than nine 3-point field goals in every game of the postseason. With plus-money odds for the Over at FanDuel, we love the value on Curry to stay hot from deep tonight."

Draymond Green Under 4.5 assists (+114 DraftKings)

"The Rockets allow the second-fewest assists per game to their opponents this season, permitting only 23.4 assists per game. Over the course of this series, that mark has shrunk to 22.7 on average.

Green is a capable passer, averaging 5.6 assists per game this season, but it’s not his primary calling card. The Rockets have taken this aspect of Green's game away effectively, limiting him to 3, 1, and 4 assists across the three games of this series.

With plus-money on Under 4.5 assists at DraftKings, the odds haven’t adjusted to the impact of Houston’s defense in this area."