Mathematical Equation For The NBA

**Dark Horse** · 03-28-08, 12:12 PM

Good luck to you.

Based on small sample size it's somewhat risky to play 7 games.
But that's why they call it gambling.

**FreeFall** · 03-28-08, 12:35 PM

How are you 2-0 when none of those games have played yet

**Dark Horse** · 03-28-08, 12:41 PM

he started the count for the day at 3).

**Arnold** · 03-28-08, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

How are you 2-0 when none of those games have played yet

He picked Golden State and Denver last night. They both won.

**The Investor** · 03-28-08, 01:01 PM

im aware of forum ettiquette. the first 2 plays were posted last night in the ncaab room. i thought since the season was almost over for college bb, there was no sense posting anymore nba plays there.

the reason i played 7 games is because, thats how many lines were off --- enough to make a wager.

**The Investor** · 03-29-08, 09:41 AM

NBA Sides: 5-3 (+$170) (62.5%)

plays for saturday march 29

9. phx (-6.5) (-1.10) $110 to win $100
10. clev +7 (-1.10) $110 to win $100
11. charolette (+6) $110 to win $100
12. clippers (-2) $110 to win $100

there may be an addition later in the day, if we get line movement.

plays are from a mathematical equation. the season is still plenty long (counting the playoffs). i think ill be able to show a pretty large number of plays in this thread by the time we get to the finals.

the equation stays very current, so it makes no difference if teams are packing it in. they will be exposed for doing so.

Good Day Gentlemen.

**edou1x** · 03-29-08, 10:23 AM

So, when the line set by the books is off, you bet it?
could you tell us when you start betting your plays? when the line is off by at least 0,5 pt, 1, 2 or more points on the spread?
is the formula that you use difficult or easy to apply when figuring out what should be the true point spread?

**The Investor** · 03-29-08, 10:26 AM

(2pts off)

10 step process.

**edou1x** · 03-29-08, 10:31 AM

when you set up your own lines, i assume you look at many stats, you adjust the home field advantage by 3 points, etc but do you include any situational factors( revenge factor,B2B,etc...) ?

**The Investor** · 03-29-08, 10:35 AM

i cant go into any details but im going to list the plays.

Home Court is not worth 3pts (my opinion), it varies from team to team. so an adjustment is made, for each home team. Here is one stumbling block, when trying to create a formula.

**edou1x** · 03-29-08, 10:37 AM

half a point of value in the NBA increase you strike rate pourcentage by nearlY 2% so with two point of value, theoretically you should have a strike rate of at least 58% right?

**The Investor** · 03-29-08, 10:42 AM

that would be correct. ive got to go out now. back this evening. Lets see what it looks like when (100) posted plays are in the books. Often times, systems and equations are proven unprofitable, when the light shines on them.

**edou1x** · 03-29-08, 10:47 AM

you seem to like stats , me TOO!!. i believe you about you strike rate. As you seem an interesting guy i'm going to reveal you something: if you bet the same amount of money(1 unit or 100 dollars on the money line for double digits NBA underdogs on a reduced juice book, you will finish the season with some small profits. What i would like to know is:what is the bottom line in the NBA if you bet on all NBA dogs during the NBA season with the same amount of money everytime without chasing and based on pinnacle opening lines?
could you be able to give me the answer if you have free time?
THANKS and BOL!!!

**babaoriley** · 03-29-08, 10:54 AM

Well, one thing is for certain, edou1x is certainly NOT a ghost for the Investor. Absolutely not. No way. None. Zilch. Zero. Glad we have that straight.

**edou1x** · 03-29-08, 11:02 AM

last question: which opening lines are more accurate in the long term: LVSC opening lines or offshore books like like pinnacle?

**durito** · 03-29-08, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by edou1x

last question: which opening lines are more accurate in the long term: LVSC opening lines or offshore books like like pinnacle?

The books.

You can't bet the LVSC lines.

**durito** · 03-29-08, 11:18 AM

Home ct varies based on whether each team played the night before or not.

The #'s since 1990 are approx:

Both teams rested: 3.5pts
Neither team rested: 3 pts
Home team rested, away team played last night: 5pts
Home team played last night, away team did not: 2.5pts

This is league wide -- yes some teams have different advantages (altitude in denver/utah). Some travel issues come up (teams do quite poorly the 2nd night of a back to back if they played in new york the night before -- my research suggests its a pain to travel out of there = players more tired the next day).

Yes, 1/2pt is worth approx 2%, but just because your numbers show the pt spread to be off by 2 does not a 58% play make unless your numbers are 100% correct and the oddsmakers/market is 100% wrong. Even if your numbers prove to be more accurate in the long run, the true spread is probably somewhere in between.

What you need to do is track your numbers vs the spread over time to see how accurate they are, then you can get a reasonable estimate of the % chance of covering.

**Gtownguy487** · 03-29-08, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by The Investor

NBA Sides: 5-3 (+$170) (62.5%)

plays for saturday march 29

9. phx (-6.5) (-1.10) $110 to win $100
10. clev +7 (-1.10) $110 to win $100
11. charolette (+6) $110 to win $100
12. clippers (-2) $110 to win $100

there may be an addition later in the day, if we get line movement.

plays are from a mathematical equation. the season is still plenty long (counting the playoffs). i think ill be able to show a pretty large number of plays in this thread by the time we get to the finals.

the equation stays very current, so it makes no difference if teams are packing it in. they will be exposed for doing so.

Good Day Gentlemen.

does the injuries for the clippers not bother you invester??
hasnt the grizz been playing very well lately??

**The Investor** · 03-29-08, 01:04 PM

edoux, there are more qualified people here to answer your last questions.

GTownguy487: this is a mechanical system based on a mathematical equation.

durito: i dont doubt your numbers but no way the heat have the same advantage at home as does the mavericks (this season). your talking about a longer term average and that will not apply to what im doing.

**Balla11** · 03-29-08, 07:02 PM

I got a baseball system that will knock your socks off... 97% win... but about 60-70 wagers a season.... win rate AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**Arnold** · 03-29-08, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by Balla11

I got a baseball system that will knock your socks off... 97% win... but about 60-70 wagers a season.... win rate AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Elaborate please.

**Balla11** · 03-29-08, 08:15 PM

don't worry fellas, i promise you'll get em.... just follow my system plays when i release them... i'll state that their the baseball system plays... Our first bet wont be until prolly late april...

I assure you this is by far the best thing you can ever do... you'll be thankfull trust me!

**The Investor** · 03-29-08, 08:16 PM

why is this in my thread?

**greek** · 03-29-08, 08:38 PM

sounds VERY MARTINGALISH!!!!!!

3 game system right?

Originally posted by Balla11

I got a baseball system that will knock your socks off... 97% win... but about 60-70 wagers a season.... win rate AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you dont just hijack someelses thread and start advertising here

**DukeJohn** · 03-29-08, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by greek

3 game system right? you dont just hijack someelses thread and start advertising here

My exact thought when I read it. That chasing progression three game system.

I also didn't like that he posted it in Investor's post here.

**edou1x** · 03-30-08, 05:25 AM

I know this system it's a chasing system and it sucks!!
the system is:if team A sweeps an other team B in a three or 4 game series you have to bet team B for the rematch. according to the author you have 62% to win the first game of the serie , if you lose you need to double up and you have now 82% to win the next game and if you lose again you have 97% to win the last game which is not exactly true i think. mabe 85 to 90% for the last bet and moreover it's a progressive system and the guy that sells this system claims he is a mathematical genius but it's just an other scam!!!
He comes from sportsbettingchamps.com

**edou1x** · 03-30-08, 05:27 AM

so Balla 11: this forum is not an advertising forum. Keep your shit with you and stay away from this forum poor SQUARE!!!!

**The Investor** · 03-30-08, 09:35 AM

come on guys, can i please just track the equation.

NBA Sides: 7-5 (+$150) (58.3%)

sundays play

13. lakers -7

as of right now, thats the only play. i agree with the books on the rest or close. if something moves enough to make another play, ill post it later.

**SexyMit** · 03-30-08, 09:39 AM

Minnesota +7

**The Investor** · 03-30-08, 09:42 AM

If (The Investor) does not post the plays, they are not from me and will not be counted.

**greek** · 03-30-08, 10:09 AM

did he ask you tro post on his thread ?

Originally posted by SexyMit

Minnesota +7