Best Bets 3/20

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 10:05 PM

Hosftra +7 (probable Avatar game..lol)

Notre Dame +4
the 4 should come in handy in what should be a nail biter

**Illusion** · 03-19-06, 10:09 PM

Atalanta +13 +101 (3 units)

This will probably be an 8 unit play when it's all said and done.

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by Illusion

Atalanta +13 +101 (3 units)

This will probably be an 8 unit play when it's all said and done.

Them sure is a lot of points. Think Detroit is gonna not be interested in crushing the Hawks?

**onlooker** · 03-19-06, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by Illusion

Atalanta +13 +101 (3 units)

This will probably be an 8 unit play when it's all said and done.

I like the points, but damn, 8 units against the Pistons? I have blacklisted that damn team.

Good luck though, I hope the Hawks show up.

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by onlòóker

I like the points, but damn, 8 units against the Pistons? I have blacklisted that damn team.

Good luck though, I hope the Hawks show up.

Pistons have burned me to a crisp...I would join Ill but if Detroit decides to put on a show for the home crowd and wins by 20 I would feel obligated to

myself.

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 10:56 PM

Here's a couple of NBA leans for tomorrow

Boston -1

Lakers are in b2b situation and Celtics are much better at home. Paul Pierce will rise to the challenge of having another ball hog (Kobe) in his gym and should have a good game.

Bucks -2

I know Portland should play better at home but they are not a good team as we all know. Portland did play Mil tough yesterday and it is always a tall order to beat any team twice in a home and away situation such as this but the Bucks really can't afford to lose to Portland given their playoff hopes and they know Portland will be out for some payback so they we should be able to count on them being focused and they are the better team.

**imgv94** · 03-19-06, 10:58 PM

4*Hofstra +7.5
2*Atlanta +14
1* Notre Dame +4.5

At least 2 out of 3 wins!!

**imgv94** · 03-19-06, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by Alamorich

Here's a couple of NBA leans for tomorrow

Boston -1

Lakers are in b2b situation and Celtics are much better at home. Paul Pierce will rise to the challenge of having another ball hog (Kobe) in his gym and should have a good game.

This is a Whoever plays better wins game. Kobe or Pierce.

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

This is a Whoever plays better wins game. Kobe or Pierce.

Only thing I don't like is that Kobe missed a shot at the buzzer that would have won there game today in Cleveland...this game is supposed to be a nail biter and I don't think Kobe will miss twice in a row if it gets down to that.

**Dark Horse** · 03-19-06, 11:13 PM

I like Portland tomorrow. Telfair has been good. The start of the new team, right now. Line has been creeping up from +1.5 to +2, looks like it will go to +2.5.

**imgv94** · 03-19-06, 11:14 PM

Being from the west coast, I know Blazers are very tough @ home.

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 11:26 PM

I have played Portland and home all season and they have cashed. Like I said in earlier it's tough to beat any team twice in a home and away situation. I saw Portland and Milwaukee and Portland had the game in hand but since they are losers they caved in late. I certainly see why anybody would go with the Blazers. Bucks are a mediocre team on a good day anyway.

I looked into Illusions Atlanta game and certainly are some very good trends that point to playing Atlanta. Hawks are 6-0 ATS against winning teams in the second half of the season and Pistons have been cash burners in every catagory since the allstar break. Pistons do have Miami coming to town next game and then they go to Indiana so real easy to see them continue to cruise through this Hawks game plus 14 points is just a lot of points in any case. (lines dropped to 13). Heaven forgive me but I am jumping on board this game. I did break the Spurs jinx and would like to break the Pistons jinx too.

**presley177** · 03-19-06, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by Illusion

Atalanta +13 +101 (3 units)

This will probably be an 8 unit play when it's all said and done.

watch out..Hawks aren't a good road team and Detroit actually has the revenge factor here.

It's a lot of points...the Hawks are inconsistent(I see them a lot living in Atlanta), they like to try and knock the big teams around(beaten both Detroit and San Antonio this year at home)

i haven't capped this one but I'd probably lean Detroit.

**imgv94** · 03-19-06, 11:31 PM

Alamo! I am going to bet the Bucks. Fvck it. Bucks are trying to
make the playoffs. They are ok away from home. I am going to mess
with the Bucks!!

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 11:35 PM

Like I said earlier...Bucks have motivation so you don't have to worry about them coming in flat.

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by presley177

watch out..Hawks aren't a good road team and Detroit actually has the revenge factor here.

It's a lot of points...the Hawks are inconsistent(I see them a lot living in Atlanta), they like to try and knock the big teams around(beaten both Detroit and San Antonio this year at home)

i haven't capped this one but I'd probably lean Detroit.

I know Hawks beat Pistons but as I recall Pistons were in a scheduling delema. They had a balls to the wall game the night before somewhere but didn't the Pistons already beat the crap out of them since then?

**Alamorich** · 03-19-06, 11:42 PM

I looked it up...Hawks beat Pistons by 1pt in their gym then 14 days later Pistons beat Hawks by 10 at the palace. Interesting thing is the point spread was the same (-14) in that second game.

**imgv94** · 03-19-06, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

4*Hofstra +7.5
2*Atlanta +14
1* Notre Dame +4.5

At least 2 out of 3 wins!!

1*Milwaukee -2 -107
1* Milwaukee -3 +111

**Jay Edgar** · 03-20-06, 12:25 AM

NBA Monday
BOS (#9) by 3.4 over LAX (#11)
DET (#6) by 10.6 over ATL (#27)
LAC (#12) by 3.4 over HOU (#29)
MIL (#18) by 0.5 over POR (#28)

**Alamorich** · 03-20-06, 01:56 AM

Recap

Hofstra +7 2U
Notre Dame +4 1U

Teaser
Hofstra +11.5
Notre Dame +9 1U

Atlanta +14 1U
Milwaukee -2 1U
Boston -1 1U

**Alamorich** · 03-20-06, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

NBA Monday
BOS (#9) by 3.4 over LAX (#11)
DET (#6) by 10.6 over ATL (#27)
LAC (#12) by 3.4 over HOU (#29)
MIL (#18) by 0.5 over POR (#28)

As I recall you were getting better results when there was a differential of at least 2 between the actual line and your power ranking line. That would make Boston and Atlanta the stronger plays of the four.

**Illusion** · 03-20-06, 02:36 AM

Yesterday's results:

imgv94: 5-1 +5.90
Razz: 4-1 +1.90
Adamo: 3-5 +0.15
adriano: 1-0 +0.11
Jay Edgar: 2-2 -0.15
darkghost: 2-2 -0.30
Alamorich: 1-1 -1.20
Illusion: 0-1 -4.00

**Illusion** · 03-20-06, 02:39 AM

Hawks +14 -106 (3 units)

**imgv94** · 03-20-06, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by Alamorich

Recap

Hofstra +7 2U
Notre Dame +4 1U

Teaser
Hofstra +11.5
Notre Dame +9 1U

Atlanta +14 1U
Milwaukee -2 1U
Boston -1 1U

I love your plays bro!!! GL I hope you win
all of them!!

**imgv94** · 03-20-06, 02:43 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

Hawks +14 -106 (3 units)

I hate giving 10% juice should of waited. Well
let's get this MF in!! I am witcha bro! Be on here
during the game tomorrow and root it in with us!!

**Illusion** · 03-20-06, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

I hate giving 10% juice should of waited. Well
let's get this MF in!! I am witcha bro! Be on here
during the game tomorrow and root it in with us!!

Thanks im. I might not be on tomorrow night. I have poker on Monday nights, but I might skip it this week. I also like your Hofstra play. I'm still deciding if I wanna take the 6.5 or buy the hook.

**imgv94** · 03-20-06, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

Thanks im. I might not be on tomorrow night. I have poker on Monday nights, but I might skip it this week. I also like your Hofstra play. I'm still deciding if I wanna take the 6.5 or buy the hook.

Where ever your @ think about us on this forum!!
O.K. We will be thinking about you!! And hoping
we all cash!!!

**mahony** · 03-20-06, 03:07 AM

i have had my anal probed with basketball / horses in the last few day so i will read the best bets threads and choose the winners that you guys provide
waiting for baseball and aussie rules football
gl to everyone

**Dark Horse** · 03-20-06, 04:26 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

1*Milwaukee -2 -107
1* Milwaukee -3 +111

You want to add some MIL -2.5 at +102?
Sell it to you at Mansion. Any amount.

(if so, send me a pm and I'll put it up)

**Adamo** · 03-20-06, 08:14 AM

2* LAL +1 (Best bet again)
1* Hawks +14
1* Bucks -3
2* Hofstra +6.5

Early nite for us downunder. GLTA

**El Guapo** · 03-20-06, 09:10 AM

18-20-2

1 unit, Hofstra +6.5 (-113)
1 unit, Souht carolina +7.5 (-101)

Paul

**Jay Edgar** · 03-20-06, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Alamorich

As I recall you were getting better results when there was a differential of at least 2 between the actual line and your power ranking line. That would make Boston and Atlanta the stronger plays of the four.

The predictive value of these pointspreads is weakening as the season wears on, but yeah -- the numbers suggest that the Celtics are the most undervalued based on how they have been playing over the last 10. Yesterday's decisive road win over a decent Indy team gave them a big boost.

And while I think the value is with the Hawks, I'd place a little less stock in the Detroit-Atlanta estimated line. At the outer margins my current formula rarely gives you a line above 12.0, even for a team with a strong home court advantage like Detroit. So the difference between my line and the real line isn't such a big deal.

I'm also shy on that game for personal reasons. The Hawks have been absolutely killing me this year by underperforming when I thought they were the value -- especially at home.

**ORO1960** · 03-20-06, 11:30 AM

have not been playing this but fell like takeing some big dawgs today.

hawks +13.5 agaisnt pistons and manhatten +11 against old dominon

**Dark Horse** · 03-20-06, 12:17 PM

Por +4