John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread
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#141Comment -
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#144
I found Wallco's post a really helpful snapshot (below). Looks like these guys put considerable work into the system, it's iterations, and backtesting. Least we could do as noobs is make a small effort to read & follow up with specific questions. Personally, I'm focused on 7/5. Maybe if you narrowed your inquiry...
Edit to add: Read the pdf. It will help.
Everthing in this forum is discussed in "units". You have to decide for youself what a unit is worth. Some people use 1% of their starting bankroll to equal 1 unit. Little wimpy for me. When I say 1-3-5, it means bet 1 "unit" (whatever amount you came up with) on the (A) bet. If it wins, you are done. If it loses, the (B) bet would be the amount you lost on (A), which is the amount wagered PLUS the juice, plus an additional 3 units. If that bet loses, the (C) bet would be the total amount lost on (A) & (B) plus 5 units.
The 7/5 is the same thing except we don't play (A) bets. If a qualifying game loses the (A) bet (which we didn't play), our first bet would be on the (B) bet for 7 units. If that loses, our (C) bet will be the total amount of $ we lost on (B), plus 5 more units.
Note: that's wager to win one unit. Not *risking* 1 unit. Any loss is the bet plus juice.Last edited by bane; 10-18-12, 02:56 PM.Comment -
#145Brooklyn? what team is that?Comment -
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#147With the 7/5, what version do we use and are they any additional changes to the original v1,v2,v3?
ThanksComment -
#148anybody here use executioner sports? i used him for 2 weeks and won big. anybody has his picks this weekend? same system like morrison but more plays. please post if anybody here is a member.Comment -
#149To anybody new to the 7/5:
The 7/5 uses all 3 versions of the JM system. In the 7/5 system, we skip the official A bets in the JM system. Instead we use this bet to determine official 7/5 plays. For the B and C bets to become 7/5 plays the A bet must lose by a total of 3.5 points to the spread. For example, if we have an official V1 A bet on the Kings and the spread is +4, buying 3.5 points puts the spread at +7.5. So then the Kings would have to lose by at least 7.5 points to become an official 7/5 series. PUSHES DO NOT MEAN LOSSES. We also skip the month of October entirely. No plays can even qualify until November.
All in all the system has been tested for 9 years now (this year will mark a decade of results) and has had only 1 of those 9 seasons go negative, and by only -19.5 units which is less than a single loss in this method (a loss playing the 7/5 will amount to -21.65 units, so plan accordingly). Including last years results the system has grossed well over +750 units in total.
A more in-depth explanation can be found in last years thread, I've linked directly to the post here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...l#post13698541
PLEASE VISIT AND READ THAT POST BEFORE ASKING QUESTIONS, IT HAS PROBABLY BEEN ANSWERED ALREADY.
Note: I will be posting the 7/5 plays this season, no one else. Only in the extreme situation that we are close to game time and I haven't posted will someone else list the 7/5 plays. Unless that circumstance occurs, look for my posts for the 7/5 plays.Last edited by thelimit0310; 10-26-12, 12:04 PM.Comment -
#150
Also limit, might want to edit your post a little bit. I know you said it earlier in the thread, but to get everything into one post, please include it uses closing lines on covers.com Maybe note that some seasons go +250units and others only 19units, so no one expects a steady 80+ units each season.Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 10-26-12, 05:59 PM.Comment -
#151Getting closer fellas!!Comment -
#152Betting % on Visiting Team Opening Visiting Spread >= 0.1Win % (Units) Opening Visiting Spread >= 2.9Win % (Units) Opening Visiting Spread >= 4.9Win % (Units) Opening Visiting Spread >= 6.9Win % (Units) 35% 52.7% (+29 units) 52.4% (+23 units) 51.3% (+4 units) 49.9% (-11 units) 30% 55.4% (+32 units) 54.5% (+25 units) 53.2% (+14 units) 53.3% (+11 units) 25% 53.1% (+6 units) 52.3% (+4 units) 51.8% (+2 units) 52.2% (+2 units) 20% 54.5% (+2 units) 54.5% (+2 units) 56.7% (+3 units) 55.6% (+3 units
Why John Morrison's system is so successful over each season.Comment -
#153Thank you thelimitComment -
#154Checking in...Comment -
#155Im inComment -
#156Heey .. when first match ? first match is Denver and Sacramento ?Comment -
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#158interesting, i think im in for the 7/5Comment -
#159Ready for the season to tip-off!Comment -
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#161Newbie here.
I actually followed along last year and made a few bets, but I want to start from game 1 this year.
This is more a bankroll management question. If I am going to play the 7-5 system and my starting bankroll is 2500, what should my unit wager be?Comment -
#162That is up to you, but keep in mind, a system loss is 21.67 units. So for example, if your unit was $100, a series loss would be $2167. That would be most of your roll, so obviously you wouldn't be starting with $100 units. Scale it back, to let's say, $25. Then a loss would only be $542. You could sustain 5 losses with no wins before clearing out your roll. If that seems too high, then scale back further. It all depends on your personal risk comfort level.Comment -
#163Thanks Wallco, how often do you suggest to increase unit size? or do you stay with one unit for the whole season?Comment -
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#165For those playing the 1-3-5 strategy, it appears there are 2 (A) bets tomorrow correct?
Also, in playing these strategies, is everyone going to be buying the 3 points if the team is an underdog and playing the ML if the team is favored or what is the general consensus from Wallco, thelimit among others...Comment -
#166worddComment -
#167Most people say to adjust units to 1% of your bankroll, I keep my units the same all season. If I get up a good amount, I may increase my unit size from that point on, but I usually remain consistent.Comment -
#168For those playing the 1-3-5 strategy, it appears there are 2 (A) bets tomorrow correct?
Also, in playing these strategies, is everyone going to be buying the 3 points if the team is an underdog and playing the ML if the team is favored or what is the general consensus from Wallco, thelimit among others...Comment -
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#170from what i read, i thought 7/5 was no point buying
not sure if this is correct, but if it isnt - i will delete this to not confuse others
edit:
quote from this thread:
So brings the end of this post. Before I go I should note that this method is also profitable if you buy 2pts on the B/C bet. You will experience a few less losses per season, but the losses you still incur will be more costly. In the end, I would just not buy points. This method is incredibly profitable and incredibly easy to play, just be disciplined enough to make the C when you need to. I leave you now with these words: play with confidence my friends, knowing that your playing the most profitable way to play the JM system to date!!!Last edited by groovybrandone; 10-31-12, 12:00 AM.Comment -
#171I just wanted to be certain. If you read through the official JM PDF posted by Hagball (Post #141) it instructs you to buy 3 points no matter what. Just wanted to get everyone on the same page. Wallco, Hagball, thelimit and everyone else thanks for all the hard work and input.Comment -
#172Do not buy points with 7/5. They are played straight -110Comment -
#173could someone explain how a full loss in 7/5 is 21.67u? if its -110, the loss is bet to make up the loss +5 so that would be
7 + 7.7 + 5.5? thats 20.2 isnt it?Comment -
#175Lets hope for atleast 1 loss tonightComment
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