HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

[sagorjanski]

Shit happens. Btw, I have a stupid question: I'm down -7.74u from tailing you (I was on the road, so I missed a beautiful streak you had). What's your target for the season, and do you think I'll get back in the black? Looking to tail you all through the season. Obviously not something you can know, just feeling a bit down at the moment, looking for some consolation. Hah!

Anyway, keep up the good work. Love reading your thoughts on the plays.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Shit happens. Btw, I have a stupid question: I'm down -7.74u from tailing you (I was on the road, so I missed a beautiful streak you had). What's your target for the season, and do you think I'll get back in the black? Looking to tail you all through the season. Obviously not something you can know, just feeling a bit down at the moment, looking for some consolation. Hah!

Anyway, keep up the good work. Love reading your thoughts on the plays.

Wow. You ask all the tough questions.

First off, I'm flattered that you like what I do here. I try my best to provide background of my picks to help folks evaluate my thought process and make good decisions. Like everyone, I sometimes don't have time to write everything up, but if you ever have questions please fee free to ask. While it's cool that folks like yourself tail my picks, my goal is really to provide information and analysis to help people find plays.

Second, I hate to hear that anyone is losing. Hot and cold streaks do happen, but I am not a very high volume player, so the swings shouldn't be too big either way. Down 7+ units sounds like bad timing. Sorry!

Third, I don't have a target or anything like that. I posted a link to my thread last season and I think I ended up around 15u. After I read your post I estimated that I probably have 20-25 plays per week. (That's like an afternoon for some folks here.) There are about 10 weeks left with a full slate of games. If I can go 55% over that stretch that would put me pretty close to 15u for the season, not counting the post season. That would be good, but I'd like to do better.

BOL the rest of the way!

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Bradley/Ole Miss o140.5
I have this one at 71+ possessions. These two are efficient enough offensively to get us there at that pace.

This is a 2u play for me at 140.5. Yes Bradley's defense is solid, but they haven't played an offense like Ole Miss. Bradley's raw possession numbers are a little low because of some of the teams hey have played. I expect plenty of pace here to give us a solid shot at the over.

[HeeluvaGuy]

These might be everything for today:

7:00 St Bonaventure/Syracuse o136
I mentioned the other day that I usually stay away from Syracuse games, but this line seems a littl low. I think this game can get close to the 71 possession game the Cuse played against Buffalo. I expect to see a lot of FTs on the Syracuse end, and if the Bonnies can get to the line this one could sail way over.

7:00 Eastern Michigan +7.5
I don't usuall Get into the sharp/square Talk, but this play admittedly feels a little square. EMU won at their place by 6 a couple of weeks ago. I like EMU's defense and rebounding to travel and possibly get the SU win.

[Brutus84]

I took Georgia ml and live betting the college game I think. Good luck. Bradley over has gone up a point though I’m tempted.

[Brutus84]

Wyoming ml. Let’s go josh Allen

[sagorjanski]

Second, I hate to hear that anyone is losing. Hot and cold streaks do happen, but I am not a very high volume player, so the swings shouldn't be too big either way. Down 7+ units sounds like bad timing. Sorry!

No need to say sorry, mate! I know the inherent risk in tailing someone - just take it as a compliment. Looking forward to the rest of the season :-)

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl today

[Brutus84]

We need a thread. Lkids, HG, and my picks. I’ll go pro so I look legit 😂. Would be better than ayos dead thread. I’m a winner.....all I do is win

[doublecreek]

We need a thread. Lkids, HG, and my picks. I’ll go pro so I look legit . Would be better than ayos dead thread. I’m a winner.....all I do is win

you mean ayo's thread that has been around for 5 years and has over 3 million views--I'll stick with that one--he is a dead on winner

[Brutus84]

you mean ayo's thread that has been around for 5 years and has over 3 million views--I'll stick with that one--he is a dead on winner

Don’t matter. Thread was dead till today. I’ve been around but don’t post a ton of plays. I could post my history though and daily winnings. You will see winning days almost everyday.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-1 with a 2u winner. Not sure what happened in the second half of that Syracuse game for the teams to combine for just 33 second half points in regulation. Hard to believe after 73 in the first.

Thread: 51-47 (+4.09u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

For Saturday:

12:00 Fordham/West Virginia u141.5
The risk here is that WVU puts up 100. While that's a possibility, Fordham doesn't turn the ball over a lot, so I am hopeful the Rams can use up some clock. I think they will struggle to get much past 50 points.

2:00 Toledo/Cleveland St u147
I have about 71 possessions for this game. At that pace these two should struggle to put this one over the total.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-1. Easy peasy with Cleveland St, but missed the pace and efficiency in the WVU game. No way did I think Fordham could score 69 in Morgantown. Shows what I know.

Thread: 52-48 (+3.99u)

Merry Christmas to all and see ya in a couple of days.

[sagorjanski]

Merry christmas, HG!

[Louisvillekid1]

My fav thread

merry x mas

[HeeluvaGuy]

My fav thread

merry x mas

Too kind kid. Merry Christmas to you as well!

[HeeluvaGuy]

One Christmas play:

8:30 MTSU/Miami u137
Two really good defenses and a slow pace by MTSU should help us stay under the number. Merry Check to all!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Merry christmas, HG!

Thanks buddy. Merry Christmas to you as wel!

[doubledime]

You were able to find a "diamond in the rough" today. Good luck and Merry Christmas

[GPrime19]

Merry christmas my dude!

All the best!

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-1 on Christmas. Didn't see them scoring 100+ in a half (obviously).

Thread: 52-49 (+2.89u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 SDSU/Wyoming o148
This one could get up to 80 possessions, which would go a long way to getting us over. I also like the FT rates here. Would be nice to see Wyoming play well offensively at home.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 yesterday. Thought it was going way over but the pace slowed down a ton in the second half. A win is a win.

Thread: 53-49 (+3.89u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

I should have a few plays later, but I'm waiting to see if I can get some better lines first.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Don't think this one will move in our favor much:

8:30 Eastern Kentucky/Jacksonville St u134
Not gonna be able to write much today. I have this one at 65 possessions. Last year's games were very low scoring too.

[teecee]

Jax State, I think it should be noted, shot abysmally in both of those meetings. They seem to be more efficient this season. Good luck.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Jax State, I think it should be noted, shot abysmally in both of those meetings. They seem to be more efficient this season. Good luck.

They also have a bottom 10 strength of schedule at this point in the season. May not matter, but there's reason to believe their efficiency will dip some in conference.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 San Francisco/San Diego o129.5
This one may drop a little more, but I'll play it here. Not my favorite type of game (too much 3 point shooting), but I think there's enough pace as long as both teams don't go completely cold.

[Louisvillekid1]

I had a strong lean on drake O

was hoping you had something on it

just worried about the points from the line

so passed

gl and god bless

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Oakland/UW Milwaukee u149
I was hoping this would creep up some, but it held steady all day. I have 68 possessions, which should keep us under.

[Louisvillekid1]

Great selection

im
playing also

[HeeluvaGuy]

I had a strong lean on drake O

was hoping you had something on it

just worried about the points from the line

so passed

gl and god bless

I liked that for an over when I saw the schedule, but that line doesn't seem like to provide an edge.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-0-1 thanks to an absurd second half in the Jax St game. Hope folks got 134.5 or better.

Thread: 55-49 (+5.89u)

[ChrisPicks]

Great job!