I'm actively trying to forget that game, but what's left in my memory is that MSU set a tone very early that UNC wasn't going to get easy points. Everything snowballed from there. But even if you take the UNC game out of the equation, MSU is still allowing just .917 points per possession, which would rank them around 55th best nationally. With the UNC game they're 11th at .844 PPP. Both of those numbers are pretty good.
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Nice work HG I'll all over the under in Riverside and Temple +1!Comment -
At this point in the season I'm really working with ranges of outcomes more than precise numbers. When/if I dust off my model I will have scores for every game available, but that's still just one tool I use. With that said, here's where I am on this game:
Using current season stats only, I get a high score of 143. However, that's using 73 possessions which I think is high by 5 or so due to how these teams historically play under these coaches (and against each other somewhat).
So if I have a high range of 143, why the under at 141.5? Well, based on the slower pace I expect to see, I get a score of 134. (FWIW, I agree with kenpom on 68 possessions here.) I also like to see what other computer models have. Kenpom has 137, Massey has 128 (and ~77% chance of staying below 142), and DRatings has 136. I also looked back at the last couple of meetings to see how these styles play out. The last two years they have played games totaling 136 and 113 on 65 and 64 possessions. So I feel pretty good that I have the pace right. As always, unexpectedly hot shooting can kill any under (along with refs that call too many fouls).
That may may be more than you wanted, but if you guys are using my picks to help you out, it's only right that you have some idea where I'm coming from.
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Massive line movement on the unders tonight in our favor. Knock on woodComment -
Keep killin itComment -
3-0 night last night. I don't sweep very often, so that was nice even if it was only 3 games.
Thread: 20-14 (+4.69u)
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Looks like a pass for me on Friday. I'm traveling this weekend, so plays will be limited. But don't worry. We have something like 3,000 more games this season.
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Great day, Professor!Comment -
For Saturday:
2:00 IUPUI/Ball St u155.5
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Another Saturday:
8:00 South Dakota St -2.5
This is a really good mid major matchup with two high caliber mid major bigs in Alize Johnson and Mike Daum. The Jackrabbits have the better supporting cast and should be able to do enough to keep Missouri St off the offensive glass. I do have a little concern abou SDSU's legs after the OT game in Mississippi earlier in the week, but if the threes are falling this could be a double digit win. Note: this is not a true home game for SDSU.
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Next up for Saturday:
7:00 Cleveland St/Kent St u144
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Not in love with this card, but here's one I've had my eye on:
7:00 Long Beach +210 (this is a .5u play for me)
The perception of Long Beach is that they're bad because Monson will go on the road and play anyone, anywhere. But they're averaging less than two losses per year at home over the past 3-4 years. Fresno has played no one and is a poor FT shooting team that makes some bad decisions. Grab the points if you want, but I like the chances of a SU doggie winner here.
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Was kinda looking at that one as well. Gl todayComment -
All over LBSTComment -
Another Saturday:
8:00 South Dakota St -2.5
This is a really good mid major matchup with two high caliber mid major bigs in Alize Johnson and Mike Daum. The Jackrabbits have the better supporting cast and should be able to do enough to keep Missouri St off the offensive glass. I do have a little concern abou SDSU's legs after the OT game in Mississippi earlier in the week, but if the threes are falling this could be a double digit win. Note: this is not a true home game for SDSU.
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9:00 San Francisco +17
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Line is certainly high
if wasn’t first road game I’d prefer 1h
hmmComment -
I should have explained a little. This is mostly an ASU fade. I think they're overvalued based on the Xavier win. They're riding some very hot shooting to start the year, but I think this is a letdown spot. Finals start Monday and ASU doesn't play for a week after this game. I'm looking for them to just get this one over with, but I could get buried if they hit their threes.Comment -
I agreeComment -
2-3 day (or 2-2.5 lol). One point in the USF game from a winning day. Totals were solid; sides weren't good.
Thread: 22-17 (+3.99u)
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Nice Work Guy, I hadn't seen this thread yet.
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For Sunday:
4:00 Northwestern/Purdue o144.5
I have this game going over 70 possessions, which should be enough for these offenses to get to 145+. However, I do worry a little about the pace of these games over the past few years (no game over 67 possessions).
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2:30 Temple/George Washington u140
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Get em todayComment -
Good luck today
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Thanks guys. Last one for Sunday:
3:00 George Mason/Auburn u155
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That one has been close for me
I’ll fire 1xComment
